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06.09.2026 20:00
Complejo Deportivo Juan Pablo II
Referee: Joel Alarcon, Peru
Juan Pablo II College
Match Timeline
Alianza Lima
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
33'
M. Almiron · Assist: P. Reyna
Juan Pablo II College
⚽
43'
E. Castillo · Assist: J. Velez
Alianza Lima
🔄
54'
N. Ramirez ↔ J. Duran
Juan Pablo II College
🔄
64'
G. Gentile ↔ A. Cantero
Alianza Lima
🔄
71'
C. Flores ↔ C. Villanueva
Juan Pablo II College
🔄
71'
A. Rojas ↔ J. Torres
Juan Pablo II College
🔄
73'
L. Advincula ↔ C. Carbajal
Alianza Lima
🔄
73'
F. Gaibor ↔ A. Burlamaqui
Alianza Lima
🔄
73'
E. Castillo ↔ L. Ramos
Alianza Lima
🔄
75'
E. Ramirez ↔ J. Toledo
Juan Pablo II College
🔄
76'
J. Posito ↔ M. Rodriguez
Juan Pablo II College
🟨
79'
Matias Almiron
Juan Pablo II College
🟨
82'
Alessandro Burlamaqui
Alianza Lima
🔄
85'
N. Diaz ↔ M. Antoni
Alianza Lima

Juan Pablo II College vs Alianza Lima Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 53.1%
Odds 1.68
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.4%
Odds 1.85
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
53.1%
1.68 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.4%
1.85 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.43 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.75 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Juan Pablo II College Win 34.4%
Draw 12.5%
Alianza Lima Win 53.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Juan Pablo II College1.18
Alianza Lima1.74
Recent Form (Last 5)
Juan Pablo II College Juan Pablo II College
WWDLW
38 GF / 50 GA
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima
WLDWL
44 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.52
Average Goals Scored
1.57
2
Average Goals Conceded
0.68
16
BTTS Yes
13
16
Over 2.5
10
3.5
Shots on Goal
5.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Juan Pablo II College Juan Pablo II College 25 matches
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 28 matches
Juan Pablo II College Statistic Alianza Lima
8 Wins 16
6 Draws 8
11 Losses 4
38 Goals For 44
50 Goals Against 19
1.52 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
2 Avg Goals Conceded 0.68
16 BTTS Yes 13
24 Over 1.5 18
16 Over 2.5 10
10 Over 3.5 4
3 Clean Sheets 11
7 Failed To Score 5
3.5 Shots On Goal 5.42
9.79 Total Shots 15.58
3.75 Corners 4.42
43.2% Ball Possession 56.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Alianza Lima's more proactive style and Juan Pablo II College's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Alianza Lima. Alianza Lima carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 52 points while Juan Pablo II College sit 12 on 27, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Juan Pablo II College expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Alianza Lima in 4-1-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alianza Lima having the stronger overall control.

Juan Pablo II College Analysis

So far, Juan Pablo II College have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 27 points from 24 matches. The record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 35:50 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through E. Ramírez (3 goals), Martín Alaníz (2 goals), Josue Torres (2 goals), with creative support from E. Ramírez (2 assists), Martín Alaníz (2 assists), Cristhian Tizón (1 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Alianza Lima Analysis

Placed 1 with 52 points from 23 outings, Alianza Lima continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 15 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 40:14 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Eryc Castillo (12 goals), Jairo Vélez (3 goals), Fernando Gaibor (2 goals), with creative support from Eryc Castillo (3 assists), Jairo Vélez (3 assists), Marco Huamán (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Juan Pablo II College won 0 times, Alianza Lima won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:5 from Juan Pablo II College's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.5%)
Predicted formations: Juan Pablo II College 4-4-2 / Alianza Lima 4-1-3-2
H2H summary: Juan Pablo II College wins 0, draws 0, Alianza Lima wins 3

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 8 3 44:18 26 56
W L D L D
2 28 14 8 6 45:33 12 50
D L W D W
3 28 14 6 8 39:25 14 48
L W L W W
4 28 13 8 7 47:31 16 47
D D W W L
5 27 14 3 10 40:38 2 45
W L W W L
6 28 13 5 10 48:40 8 44
W D L W L
7 28 12 7 9 36:45 -9 43
D D L L L
8 27 11 7 9 40:35 5 40
W L W W W
9 27 11 5 11 48:40 8 38
W W W L L
10 27 10 8 9 29:26 3 38
D W L W W
11 28 11 5 12 38:44 -6 38
W W W W W
12 28 9 8 11 43:53 -10 35
D W W D W
13 28 9 6 13 26:31 -5 33
D L W L W
14 28 7 10 11 36:39 -3 31
D L L D L
15 28 7 7 14 41:52 -11 28
D L W L W
16 28 6 8 14 29:42 -13 26
D W L L L
17 28 6 7 15 24:43 -19 25
L L L L L
18 27 4 8 15 32:50 -18 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2