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POLAND › EKSTRAKLASA
10.10.2026 18:15
Chorten Arena

Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
50.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
75.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Jagiellonia Win 36.7%
Draw 12.5%
Gornik Zabrze Win 50.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Jagiellonia1.48
Gornik Zabrze1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Jagiellonia Jagiellonia
WWDLW
42 GF / 27 GA
Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze
WLDWL
34 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.75
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
14
BTTS Yes
14
15
Over 2.5
13
4.23
Shots on Goal
3.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 24 matches
Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 24 matches
Jagiellonia Statistic Gornik Zabrze
14 Wins 13
3 Draws 4
7 Losses 7
42 Goals For 34
27 Goals Against 26
1.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
14 BTTS Yes 14
19 Over 1.5 18
15 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 4
8 Clean Sheets 7
3 Failed To Score 5
4.23 Shots On Goal 3.93
8.54 Total Shots 10.8
2.92 Corners 4.53
48.2% Ball Possession 39.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Gornik Zabrze's more proactive style and Jagiellonia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Gornik Zabrze. Gornik Zabrze look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Jagiellonia expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Gornik Zabrze in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gornik Zabrze having the stronger overall control. Gornik Zabrze carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 22 points while Jagiellonia sit 10 on 12, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Jagiellonia Analysis

Jagiellonia approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 12 points from 8 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 0 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 12:13 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on N. Prelec (2 goals), Jesús Imaz (2 goals), O. Sow (2 goals), with creative support from N. Prelec (1 assists), K. Szmyt (1 assists), Sergio Lozano (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gornik Zabrze Analysis

Gornik Zabrze come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 22 points after 9 matches. The return of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 16:8, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through Peter (4 goals), K. Urbański (3 goals), E. Prekop (2 goals), with creative support from K. Urbański (1 assists), Josema Sánchez (1 assists), R. Janicki (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Jagiellonia won 6 times, Gornik Zabrze won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:24 from Jagiellonia's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.5%)
Predicted formations: Jagiellonia 4-2-3-1 / Gornik Zabrze 4-3-3
H2H summary: Jagiellonia wins 6, draws 2, Gornik Zabrze wins 7

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 1 1 16:8 8 22
D W W W W
2 9 5 4 0 19:8 11 19
W D W D D
3 8 6 1 1 17:7 10 19
W L W W W
4 9 5 2 2 17:12 5 17
W W D W D
5 8 4 3 1 12:6 6 15
W W D D D
6 9 4 3 2 12:10 2 15
W L W D W
7 9 4 3 2 11:10 1 15
L W W D D
8 9 4 1 4 16:15 1 13
L W W W D
9 8 4 0 4 16:13 3 12
W L L W W
10 8 4 0 4 12:13 -1 12
L L W L W
11 8 3 2 3 9:12 -3 11
W W D L L
12 9 1 6 2 13:13 0 9
D D D L D
13 9 2 2 5 9:14 -5 8
L L L L W
14 9 2 2 5 7:20 -13 8
L L D W D
15 9 1 3 5 11:15 -4 6
L L L D D
16 9 1 3 5 9:15 -6 6
D L L L D
17 8 1 2 5 11:17 -6 5
D L D L L
18 9 1 0 8 12:21 -9 3
L L W L L
Qualifying
EL Qualification
Play-offs
Relegation