05.10.2026 18:45
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
Referee: Szymon Marciniak
Italy
Match Timeline
Türkiye
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
26'
Gianluca Scamacca
Italy
🟨
42'
Gianluca Scamacca
Italy
🟨
47'
Matteo Ruggeri
Italy
🟨
55'
Zeki Çelik
Türkiye
🔄
55'
Giovanni Di Lorenzo ↔ Michael Kayode
Italy
🔄
56'
Matteo Ruggeri ↔ Riccardo Calafiori
Italy
🔄
56'
Gianluca Scamacca ↔ Pio Esposito
Italy
⚽
61'
Aral Simsir · Assist: Eren Elmalı
Türkiye
⚽
64'
Riccardo Calafiori · Assist: Nicolò Barella
Italy
🔄
70'
Nicolò Barella ↔ Sandro Tonali
Italy
🔄
70'
İrfan Can Kahveci ↔ Bartuğ Elmaz
Türkiye
🔄
70'
Aral Simsir ↔ Ilhan Fakili
Türkiye
🔄
79'
Ismail Yüksek ↔ Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Türkiye
🟨
81'
Abdulkerim Bardakçı
Türkiye
🔄
84'
Antonio Vergara ↔ Davide Frattesi
Italy
⚽
87'
Pio Esposito · Assist: Alessandro Romano
Italy
🔄
88'
Yunus Akgün ↔ Deniz Gül
Türkiye
🔄
88'
Ferdi Kadıoğlu ↔ Oğuz Aydın
Türkiye

Italy vs Türkiye Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 61.6%
Odds 2.75
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.1%
Odds 2.48
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
61.6%
2.75 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.1%
2.48 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.25 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
8.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Italy Win 38.4%
Draw 19.3%
Türkiye Win 42.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Italy1.54
Türkiye1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Italy Italy
WWDLW
7 GF / 4 GA
Türkiye Türkiye
WLDWL
10 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1.25
0.8
Average Goals Conceded
1.75
2
BTTS Yes
3
1
Over 2.5
5
4.4
Shots on Goal
5.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Italy Italy 5 matches
Türkiye Türkiye 8 matches
Italy Statistic Türkiye
3 Wins 3
1 Draws 0
1 Losses 5
7 Goals For 10
4 Goals Against 14
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
0.8 Avg Goals Conceded 1.75
2 BTTS Yes 3
3 Over 1.5 6
1 Over 2.5 5
1 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 4
4.4 Shots On Goal 5.75
14.8 Total Shots 19.63
4 Corners 7.88
46.2% Ball Possession 55.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Italy won 2 times, Türkiye won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:2 from Italy's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.7%)
Predicted formations: Italy 4-3-3 / Türkiye 5-4-1
H2H summary: Italy wins 2, draws 1, Türkiye wins 0

Standings

League A - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 3 2 1 0 3:1 2 7
D W W
2 3 2 0 1 5:1 4 6
W L W
3
Italy Home
3 1 1 1 5:4 1 4
D W L
4 3 0 0 3 1:8 -7 0
L L L
Play Offs: Quarter-finals
Possible Play-off Qualification