ARGENTINA LIGA PROFESIONAL ARGENTINA
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 93.1%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
93.1%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Independiente Win 49.2%
Draw 6.9%
Independ. Rivadavia Win 44%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente1.26
Independ. Rivadavia1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente Independiente
WWDLW
37 GF / 32 GA
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia
WLDWL
54 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.48
Average Goals Scored
1.69
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
14
BTTS Yes
21
10
Over 2.5
16
4
Shots on Goal
4.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente Independiente 25 matches
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia 32 matches
Independiente Statistic Independ. Rivadavia
11 Wins 19
6 Draws 8
8 Losses 5
37 Goals For 54
32 Goals Against 30
1.48 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
14 BTTS Yes 21
20 Over 1.5 25
10 Over 2.5 16
7 Over 3.5 7
7 Clean Sheets 9
4 Failed To Score 5
4 Shots On Goal 4.67
12.91 Total Shots 13.63
5.82 Corners 4.33
52% Ball Possession 46.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Independiente have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Independ. Rivadavia. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Independ. Rivadavia carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 34 points while Independiente sit 5 on 24, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Independiente expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Independ. Rivadavia in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independ. Rivadavia having the stronger overall control.

Independiente Analysis

Independiente sit 5 with 24 points after 16 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 24:20, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Gabriel Ávalos (4 goals), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (2 goals), Matías Abaldo (2 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Ávalos (2 assists), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (2 assists), Matías Abaldo (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Independ. Rivadavia Analysis

Placed 1 with 34 points from 16 outings, Independ. Rivadavia continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, while the 29:15 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Alex Arce (5 goals), Leonel Bucca (3 goals), José Florentín (2 goals), with creative support from Sebastián Villa (4 assists), Matías Fernández (3 assists), Leonard Costa (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Independiente won 2 times, Independ. Rivadavia won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:6 from Independiente's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.83 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.1%)
Predicted formations: Independiente 4-2-3-1 / Independ. Rivadavia 4-4-2
H2H summary: Independiente wins 2, draws 1, Independ. Rivadavia wins 3
Last matches: Independiente
17.08.26
Lig
Independiente
Lanus
3
1
W
12.08.26
Cop
Independiente
Atletico Tucuman
0
4
L
09.08.26
Lig
Independiente
Platense
0
1
L
03.08.26
Lig
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
0
1
L
31.07.26
Lig
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
1
0
W
26.07.26
Lig
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
2
0
W
22.05.26
Cop
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independiente
Rosario Central
1
3
L
02.05.26
Lig
Independiente
San Lorenzo
2
1
W
24.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
0
2
L
18.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Defensa Y Justicia
3
1
W
11.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
04.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Racing Club
1
0
W
27.03.26
Cop
Independiente
Atenas
4
2
W
21.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Talleres Cordoba
1
2
L
17.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Instituto Cordoba
1
2
L
10.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
4
4
D
28.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Central Cordoba de Santiago
2
0
W
25.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Gimnasia M.
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
2
3
L
Last matches: Independ. Rivadavia
18.08.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
1
1
D
15.08.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Belgrano Cordoba
0
2
L
11.08.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
0
0
D
08.08.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
2
1
W
03.08.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Sarmiento Junin
1
2
L
30.07.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Huracan
2
1
W
26.07.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Atletico Tucuman
0
0
D
12.07.26
Cop
Independ. Rivadavia
Tigre
1
0
W
28.05.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Bolívar
3
1
W
21.05.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Deportivo La Guaira
4
2
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Union Santa Fe
1
2
L
07.05.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Aldosivi
1
1
D
30.04.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Deportivo La Guaira
4
1
W
26.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Gimnasia M.
5
1
W
20.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Banfield
0
0
D
16.04.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
2
1
W
11.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Argentinos JRS
3
1
W
07.04.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Bolívar
1
0
W
02.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Tigre
2
0
W
H2H: Independiente vs Independ. Rivadavia
21.02.26
H2H
Independ. Rivadavia
Independiente
3
2
L
11.05.25
H2H
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
1
0
W
27.07.24
H2H
Independ. Rivadavia
Independiente
1
0
L
27.01.24
H2H
Independ. Rivadavia
Independiente
0
1
W
03.03.14
H2H
Independ. Rivadavia
Independiente
2
1
L
01.09.13
H2H
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
0
0
D
Last matches: Independiente
09.08.26
Lig
Independiente
Platense
0
1
L
31.07.26
Lig
Independiente
Newells Old Boys
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Defensa Y Justicia
3
1
W
04.04.26
Lig
Independiente
Racing Club
1
0
W
27.03.26
Cop
Independiente
Atenas
4
2
W
21.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Talleres Cordoba
1
2
L
10.03.26
Lig
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
4
4
D
28.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Central Cordoba de Santiago
2
0
W
13.02.26
Lig
Independiente
Lanus
2
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
Independiente
Velez Sarsfield
1
1
D
23.01.26
Lig
Independiente
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
H2H at home: Independiente
11.05.25
H2H
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
1
0
W
01.09.13
H2H
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
0
0
D
Last matches: Independ. Rivadavia
15.08.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Belgrano Cordoba
0
2
L
11.08.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
0
0
D
03.08.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Sarmiento Junin
1
2
L
26.07.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Atletico Tucuman
0
0
D
28.05.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Bolívar
3
1
W
21.05.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Deportivo La Guaira
4
2
W
03.05.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Aldosivi
1
1
D
20.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Banfield
0
0
D
16.04.26
CON
Independ. Rivadavia
Fluminense
2
1
W
02.04.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Tigre
2
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Gimnasia L.P.
3
2
W
26.02.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Racing Club
1
1
D
10.02.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
1
0
W
27.01.26
Lig
Independ. Rivadavia
Huracan
2
1
W
H2H away: Independ. Rivadavia
11.05.25
H2H
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
1
0
L
01.09.13
H2H
Independiente
Independ. Rivadavia
0
0
D

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L L W L
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
D D W D L
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D D W W W
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L L W L L
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
W L L W W
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
L W L L W
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
W L L W L
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L L W L D
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
W W W W L
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
D W L W D
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
W L W L W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
D W L L D
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L W W L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
W L D L W
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
L W L L W
Knockout Phase