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06.09.2026 19:00
Referee: C. Condori
Independiente Petrolero
Match Timeline
Bolívar
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
10'
Gustavo Mendoza
Independiente Petrolero
⚽
24'
B. Arce · Assist: C. A. Melgar
Bolívar
🟨
39'
Rodrigo Zamora
Independiente Petrolero
⚽
43'
D. Romero · Assist: J. Velasquez
Bolívar
🔄
46'
C. Urdininea ↔ Jeferson Carioca
Independiente Petrolero
🟨
54'
Rodrigo Zamora
Independiente Petrolero
🟥
54'
Rodrigo Zamora
Independiente Petrolero
🔄
58'
G. Alvarez ↔ A. Mercado
Independiente Petrolero
🔄
58'
G. Cristaldo ↔ S. Torres
Independiente Petrolero
🟨
61'
Willie
Independiente Petrolero
🟨
63'
Alan Mercado
Independiente Petrolero
🟥
70'
Saúl Torres
Independiente Petrolero
🔄
73'
Willie ↔ D. Navarro
Independiente Petrolero
⚽
75'
B. Arce · Assist: D. Asprilla
Bolívar
🔄
78'
B. Arce ↔ J. Garcia
Bolívar
🔄
78'
J. Velasquez ↔ C. Sejas
Bolívar
🔄
82'
D. Romero ↔ D. Batallini
Bolívar
🔄
82'
L. Justiniano ↔ B. Miranda
Bolívar
🔄
82'
D. Asprilla ↔ M. Cauteruccio
Bolívar
⚽
86'
B. Miranda · Assist: D. Batallini
Bolívar

Independiente Petrolero vs Bolívar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 51.1%
Odds 1.56
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.45
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
51.1%
1.56 ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
1.50 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.45 ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
85.8%
1.29 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.75 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Independiente Petrolero Win 34.1%
Draw 14.7%
Bolívar Win 51.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente Petrolero1.26
Bolívar1.91
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero
WWDLW
25 GF / 30 GA
Bolívar Bolívar
WLDWL
51 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
2.13
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
12
BTTS Yes
17
15
Over 2.5
14
2.18
Shots on Goal
4.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente Petrolero Independiente Petrolero 19 matches
Bolívar Bolívar 24 matches
Independiente Petrolero Statistic Bolívar
7 Wins 12
4 Draws 6
8 Losses 6
25 Goals For 51
30 Goals Against 28
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 2.13
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
12 BTTS Yes 17
16 Over 1.5 21
15 Over 2.5 14
6 Over 3.5 9
3 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 3
2.18 Shots On Goal 4.91
6 Total Shots 11.57
2.06 Corners 3.57
24.7% Ball Possession 39.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Bolívar's more proactive style and Independiente Petrolero's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Bolívar carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 36 points while Independiente Petrolero sit 6 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Bolívar. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Bolívar look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Independiente Petrolero Analysis

Independiente Petrolero sit 6 with 25 points after 17 league matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 25:25 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Bolívar Analysis

Bolívar come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 36 points after 17 matches. The return of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 44:19, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through B. Arce (1 goals), M. Cauteruccio (1 goals), B. Miranda (1 goals), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Independiente Petrolero won 5 times, Bolívar won 9 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:31 from Independiente Petrolero's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.3%)
Predicted formations: Independiente Petrolero 4-2-3-1 / Bolívar 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Independiente Petrolero wins 5, draws 1, Bolívar wins 9

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 13 6 1 47:13 34 45
W W W D D
2 20 14 3 3 54:22 32 45
W W W W W
3 20 12 6 2 39:22 17 42
W W W W W
4 20 8 8 4 27:14 13 32
W W D L D
5 20 9 3 8 36:27 9 30
W L L D W
6 20 7 9 4 31:27 4 30
L W W D D
7 20 8 5 7 32:39 -7 29
W L D L D
8 20 6 9 5 30:22 8 27
D W L D D
9 20 8 3 9 30:28 2 27
L W W L W
10 20 7 4 9 27:35 -8 25
L L L W L
11 20 6 3 11 32:50 -18 21
L L W D L
12 21 6 3 12 21:40 -19 21
D W L L L
13 20 6 2 12 31:45 -14 20
L L W L D
14 20 5 3 12 26:39 -13 18
D W L W L
15 21 4 5 12 15:39 -24 17
D L L L W
16 20 2 8 10 21:37 -16 14
L L L D D