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ECUADOR › LIGA PRO
05.09.2026 23:00
Estadio Banco Guayaquil
Referee: Yerson Zambrano, Ecuador
Independiente del Valle
Match Timeline
Macara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Junior Sornoza
Independiente del Valle
⚽
8'
D. Reasco · Assist: R. Briones
Independiente del Valle
⚽
10'
D. Reasco · Assist: R. Briones
Independiente del Valle
⚽
15'
R. Briones · Assist: M. Perello
Independiente del Valle
🔄
32'
S. Etchebarne ↔ J. Jimenez
Macara
🔄
46'
M. Ayala ↔ J. Mohor
Macara
🔄
46'
L. Ferro ↔ M. Tello
Macara
🟨
66'
Franco Posse
Macara
🔄
70'
R. Briones ↔ J. Sornoza
Independiente del Valle
🔄
70'
E. Quintero ↔ A. Rodriguez
Independiente del Valle
🔄
70'
J. Alcivar ↔ H. Quintana
Independiente del Valle
🔄
70'
J. Klinger ↔ M. Viera
Macara
🔄
75'
D. Reasco ↔ C. Gonzalez
Independiente del Valle
⚽
75'
A. Velasco
Macara
🔄
77'
A. Velasco ↔ R. Schunke
Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle vs Macara Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.3%
Odds 1.38
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.72
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.3%
1.38 ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
1.91 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.72 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.23 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.25 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Independiente del Valle Win 62.3%
Draw 3.4%
Macara Win 34.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente del Valle1.8
Macara1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WWDLW
83 GF / 39 GA
Macara Macara
WLDWL
41 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
2.24
Average Goals Scored
1.37
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
20
BTTS Yes
16
24
Over 2.5
16
5.97
Shots on Goal
4.79

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 37 matches
Macara Macara 30 matches
Independiente del Valle Statistic Macara
28 Wins 14
3 Draws 6
6 Losses 10
83 Goals For 41
39 Goals Against 34
2.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.37
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
20 BTTS Yes 16
31 Over 1.5 23
24 Over 2.5 16
17 Over 3.5 4
14 Clean Sheets 9
4 Failed To Score 7
5.97 Shots On Goal 4.79
17.06 Total Shots 12.89
5.86 Corners 4.54
52.4% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Macara. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Independiente del Valle come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Independiente del Valle arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 68 points compared to Macara in 4 on 42, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Independiente del Valle come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 68 points after 27 matches. With 22 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 66:28, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by M. Perelló (6 goals), Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez (6 goals), D. Reasco (5 goals), with creative support from A. Rodríguez (5 assists), D. Reasco (4 assists), J. Viacava (4 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their record of 10 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Macara Analysis

Macara approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 42 points after 26 outings. The return of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats, together with goals at 33:26, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Franco Posse (9 goals), Agustin Campana (4 goals), Federico Paz (3 goals), with creative support from Franco Posse (3 assists), Matías Miranda (3 assists), Jose Klinger (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, their record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Independiente del Valle won 9 times, Macara won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 31:14 from Independiente del Valle's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.7%)
Predicted formations: Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1 / Macara 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Independiente del Valle wins 9, draws 3, Macara wins 3

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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