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26.04.2026 18:00
Estadio Bautista Gargantini
Referee: Yael Falcon Perez, Argentina
Independ. Rivadavia
Match Timeline
Gimnasia M.
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
1'
B. Armoa · Assist: I. Sabatini
Gimnasia M.
🟨
11'
Sheyko Studer
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
11'
Agustín Modica
Gimnasia M.
⚽
18'
S. Studer · Assist: L. Costa
Independ. Rivadavia
🟨
24'
Fermin Antonini
Gimnasia M.
🟨
26'
Esteban Fernández
Gimnasia M.
⚽
50'
F. Sartori · Assist: S. Villa
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
55'
E. Fernandez ↔ B. Ferreyra
Gimnasia M.
🔄
55'
F. Antonini ↔ N. Barboza
Gimnasia M.
🟨
58'
Blas Armoa
Gimnasia M.
🟨
61'
Matías Fernández
Independ. Rivadavia
🟥
61'
Franco Saavedra
Gimnasia M.
🔄
64'
B. Armoa ↔ M. Recalde
Gimnasia M.
🔄
64'
I. Cortez ↔ L. Paredes
Gimnasia M.
⚽
70'
A. Arce
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
72'
M. Fernandez ↔ R. Atencio
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
72'
E. Bonifacio ↔ J. M. Elordi
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
77'
A. Arce ↔ G. Rios
Independ. Rivadavia
⚽
79'
L. Costa · Assist: R. Atencio
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
82'
F. Sartori ↔ V. Ramis
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
82'
T. Bottari ↔ L. Bucca
Independ. Rivadavia
⚽
83'
L. Bucca · Assist: L. Gomez
Independ. Rivadavia
🔄
84'
A. Modica ↔ U. Sanchez
Gimnasia M.
🟨
87'
Nahuel Barboza
Gimnasia M.
🟨
89'
Ulises Sánchez
Gimnasia M.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia M. Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 53.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 68.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
53.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
68.1%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Independ. Rivadavia Win 75.6%
Draw 0%
Gimnasia M. Win 24.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independ. Rivadavia1.42
Gimnasia M.0.77
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia
WWDLW
28 GF / 14 GA
Gimnasia M. Gimnasia M.
WLDWL
11 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.65
Average Goals Scored
0.73
0.82
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
10
BTTS Yes
6
8
Over 2.5
4
4.75
Shots on Goal
3.64

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independ. Rivadavia Independ. Rivadavia 17 matches
Gimnasia M. Gimnasia M. 15 matches
Independ. Rivadavia Statistic Gimnasia M.
12 Wins 4
3 Draws 5
2 Losses 6
28 Goals For 11
14 Goals Against 16
1.65 Avg Goals Scored 0.73
0.82 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
10 BTTS Yes 6
13 Over 1.5 7
8 Over 2.5 4
3 Over 3.5 2
6 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 6
4.75 Shots On Goal 3.64
13 Total Shots 10.5
3.75 Corners 3.43
44.7% Ball Possession 41.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Independ. Rivadavia arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 12 with 119 points compared to Gimnasia M. in 23 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Independ. Rivadavia come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Gimnasia M.. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Independ. Rivadavia expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Gimnasia M. in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gimnasia M. having the stronger overall control.

Independ. Rivadavia Analysis

Independ. Rivadavia are currently 12 in the standings with 119 points from 87 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted - wins, - draws, and - losses, while the 0:0 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Going forward they rely heavily on F. Sartori (5 goals), A. Osella (4 goals), José Florentín (3 goals), with creative support from Sebastián Villa (4 assists), R. Atencio (3 assists), M. Fernandez (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gimnasia M. Analysis

Gimnasia M. approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 23 with 16 points from 14 matches. Across the season they have posted - wins, - draws, and - defeats, and the 0:0 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Modica (4 goals), F. Lencioni (2 goals), E. Mammana (1 goals), with creative support from F. Lencioni (5 assists), S. Rodriguez (1 assists), F. Antonini (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Independ. Rivadavia won 4 times, Gimnasia M. won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:8 from Independ. Rivadavia's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.14 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Independ. Rivadavia 4-2-3-1 / Gimnasia M. 4-3-3
H2H summary: Independ. Rivadavia wins 4, draws 0, Gimnasia M. wins 3

Standings

Clausura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 12 6 4 2 17:9 8 22
W D W W D
2 12 6 4 2 14:7 7 22
W W W D D
3 12 6 4 2 16:11 5 22
D W L D D
4 11 6 1 4 20:17 3 19
W L D W L
5 12 5 4 3 11:10 1 19
L W W W D
6 12 5 4 3 17:17 0 19
D D D D W
7 12 5 3 4 10:9 1 18
W W L D D
8 12 5 3 4 15:19 -4 18
L D W W L
9 11 5 1 5 14:12 2 16
W L W W W
10 12 3 5 4 10:10 0 14
D L L L W
11 12 3 4 5 14:18 -4 13
W D D D L
12 12 3 3 6 11:13 -2 12
L L L L L
13 12 3 2 7 13:19 -6 11
L W W L L
14 12 2 2 8 13:20 -7 8
L L W L W
15 12 1 3 8 6:16 -10 6
L L L L L
Knockout Phase