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SWEDEN › SUPERETTAN
16.08.2026 11:00
Finnvedsvallen
Referee: Fredrik Oppong, Sweden
IFK Varnamo
Match Timeline
Ostersunds FK
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
11'
K. Meriluoto · Assist: A. Bjornstrom
IFK Varnamo
🟨
22'
Emil Özkan
Ostersunds FK
🔄
65'
J. Ali ↔ M. Palomino
Ostersunds FK
🟨
68'
Carl Johansson
IFK Varnamo
🔄
68'
H. Andersson ↔ M. Akinfenwa
IFK Varnamo
🔄
74'
K. Meriluoto ↔ S. Jansson
IFK Varnamo
⚽
76'
M. Palomino · Assist: C. Edwards
Ostersunds FK
🔄
77'
E. Ozkan ↔ D. Molls
Ostersunds FK
🔄
85'
V. Claesson ↔ B. Zulovic
IFK Varnamo
🔄
85'
H. Andersson ↔ E. Freij
IFK Varnamo
🟨
90'
Benjamin Zulovic
IFK Varnamo
🟨
90+3'
Curtis Edwards
Ostersunds FK

IFK Varnamo vs Ostersunds FK Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 85.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
85.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 8.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
IFK Varnamo Win 8%
Draw 6.9%
Ostersunds FK Win 85.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
IFK Varnamo1.35
Ostersunds FK1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo
WWDLW
36 GF / 49 GA
Ostersunds FK Ostersunds FK
WLDWL
36 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
14
BTTS Yes
15
16
Over 2.5
13
1.82
Shots on Goal
1.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 26 matches
Ostersunds FK Ostersunds FK 26 matches
IFK Varnamo Statistic Ostersunds FK
7 Wins 11
5 Draws 6
14 Losses 9
36 Goals For 36
49 Goals Against 34
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
14 BTTS Yes 15
20 Over 1.5 20
16 Over 2.5 13
12 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 6
10 Failed To Score 6
1.82 Shots On Goal 1.83
3.06 Total Shots 2.94
2.24 Corners 2.89
28.1% Ball Possession 26.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Ostersunds FK's more proactive style and IFK Varnamo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with IFK Varnamo expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Ostersunds FK in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ostersunds FK having the stronger overall control. Ostersunds FK carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 32 points while IFK Varnamo sit 15 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Ostersunds FK look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Ostersunds FK.

IFK Varnamo Analysis

With 14 points from 17 games and a place of 15, IFK Varnamo still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 11 defeats with a 20:35 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ostersunds FK Analysis

Ostersunds FK approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 32 points after 18 outings. They have recorded 9 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, with a 28:21 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, IFK Varnamo won 0 times, Ostersunds FK won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:4 from IFK Varnamo's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.1%)
Predicted formations: IFK Varnamo 4-3-3 / Ostersunds FK 3-4-3
H2H summary: IFK Varnamo wins 0, draws 1, Ostersunds FK wins 1

Standings

Superettan
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 17 4 4 48:16 32 55
W D W D W
2 25 13 6 6 46:33 13 45
D W W L W
3 25 13 5 7 44:33 11 44
W W L D W
4 25 11 10 4 33:24 9 43
D W D W D
5 25 11 7 7 39:26 13 40
W W L W D
6 25 9 9 7 38:34 4 36
L D W W L
7 25 11 3 11 38:38 0 36
L W L L D
8 25 9 9 7 38:40 -2 36
L D L W L
9 25 9 7 9 41:35 6 34
W D L W D
10 25 8 6 11 36:45 -9 30
D L W L D
11 25 8 5 12 33:45 -12 29
W L W D W
12 25 7 7 11 33:36 -3 28
L L W D L
13 25 4 12 9 28:35 -7 24
D L L L L
14 25 5 9 11 27:39 -12 24
L D W L D
15 25 5 8 12 39:48 -9 23
L D D L L
16 25 6 1 18 19:53 -34 19
W L L W W
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