🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
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Shell Energy Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.9%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
69.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Houston Dynamo Win 70.9%
Draw 4.6%
San Jose Earthquakes Win 24.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Houston Dynamo1.62
San Jose Earthquakes1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo
WWDLW
51 GF / 36 GA
San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes
WLDWL
46 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.7
Average Goals Scored
1.77
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
15
BTTS Yes
15
14
Over 2.5
15
4.65
Shots on Goal
5.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 30 matches
San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 26 matches
Houston Dynamo Statistic San Jose Earthquakes
19 Wins 13
4 Draws 3
7 Losses 10
51 Goals For 46
36 Goals Against 39
1.7 Avg Goals Scored 1.77
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
15 BTTS Yes 15
23 Over 1.5 21
14 Over 2.5 15
7 Over 3.5 12
11 Clean Sheets 7
4 Failed To Score 4
4.65 Shots On Goal 5.14
12.5 Total Shots 13.29
3.95 Corners 6.24
43.1% Ball Possession 46.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Houston Dynamo come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring San Jose Earthquakes.

Houston Dynamo Analysis

Houston Dynamo approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 38 points after 20 outings. They have recorded 12 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, with a 29:24 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Guilherme (6 goals), Mateusz Bogusz (3 goals), Lawrence Ennali (2 goals), with creative support from Guilherme (2 assists), Lawrence Ennali (2 assists), Jack McGlynn (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 7 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

San Jose Earthquakes Analysis

With 33 points from 20 games and a place of 4, San Jose Earthquakes still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 3 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 38:28 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Preston Judd (9 goals), Timo Werner (4 goals), Ousseni Bouda (3 goals), with creative support from Niko Tsakiris (4 assists), Paul Marie (4 assists), Preston Judd (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Houston Dynamo won 8 times, San Jose Earthquakes won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:23 from Houston Dynamo's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Houston Dynamo 4-2-3-1 / San Jose Earthquakes 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Houston Dynamo wins 8, draws 3, San Jose Earthquakes wins 4
Last matches: Houston Dynamo
23.08.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
St. Louis City
1
2
L
20.08.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Vancouver Whitecaps
1
0
W
16.08.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
0
W
08.08.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
New England Revolution
2
0
W
02.08.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Sporting Kansas City
2
0
W
26.07.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Austin
3
0
W
23.07.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
DC United
1
1
D
16.07.26
Fri
Houston Dynamo
America de Cali
2
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Houston Dynamo
CD Olimpia
3
0
W
24.05.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
1
D
17.05.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Vancouver Whitecaps
1
0
W
14.05.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Real Salt Lake
0
3
L
11.05.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Los Angeles FC
4
1
W
03.05.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Colorado Rapids
1
0
W
26.04.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Austin
0
2
L
23.04.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
San Diego
1
0
W
18.04.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Orlando City SC
1
0
W
12.04.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Colorado Rapids
2
6
L
05.04.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Seattle Sounders
0
1
L
22.03.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
FC Dallas
3
4
L
Last matches: San Jose Earthquakes
23.08.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Minnesota United FC
1
5
L
20.08.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Los Angeles Galaxy
0
1
L
16.08.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
St. Louis City
1
3
L
01.08.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
FC Cincinnati
2
4
L
26.07.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
1
D
23.07.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Orlando City SC
0
4
L
04.07.26
Fri
San Jose Earthquakes
Club Tijuana
1
2
L
24.05.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Portland Timbers
3
1
W
17.05.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
FC Dallas
2
3
L
14.05.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Seattle Sounders
2
3
L
10.05.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Vancouver Whitecaps
1
1
D
02.05.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Toronto FC
1
1
D
26.04.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
St. Louis City
3
2
W
23.04.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Austin
5
1
W
19.04.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Los Angeles FC
4
1
W
12.04.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Sporting Kansas City
3
1
W
05.04.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
San Diego
3
0
W
22.03.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Vancouver Whitecaps
1
0
W
15.03.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Seattle Sounders
0
1
L
08.03.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Philadelphia Union
1
0
W
H2H: Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes
24.08.25
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
1
2
L
25.05.25
H2H
San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo
3
3
D
18.07.24
H2H
San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo
0
1
W
31.03.24
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
2
1
W
22.06.23
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
4
1
W
02.04.23
H2H
San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo
2
1
L
18.07.22
H2H
San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo
1
2
W
10.04.22
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
4
3
W
25.07.21
H2H
San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo
1
1
D
17.04.21
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
2
1
W
27.06.19
H2H
San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo
2
0
L
13.04.19
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
2
1
W
30.09.18
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
3
2
W
15.04.18
H2H
San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo
2
2
D
17.09.17
H2H
San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo
1
0
L
Last matches: Houston Dynamo
16.08.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
0
W
26.07.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Austin
3
0
W
23.07.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
DC United
1
1
D
16.07.26
Fri
Houston Dynamo
America de Cali
2
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Houston Dynamo
CD Olimpia
3
0
W
17.05.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Vancouver Whitecaps
1
0
W
03.05.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Colorado Rapids
1
0
W
23.04.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
San Diego
1
0
W
05.04.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Seattle Sounders
0
1
L
15.03.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Portland Timbers
3
2
W
01.03.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Los Angeles FC
0
2
L
22.02.26
Maj
Houston Dynamo
Chicago Fire
2
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Houston Dynamo
New York Red Bulls
3
2
W
08.02.26
Fri
Houston Dynamo
Atlanta United FC
1
1
D
04.02.26
Fri
Houston Dynamo
San Antonio
2
0
W
28.01.26
Fri
Houston Dynamo
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
24.01.26
Fri
Houston Dynamo
Louisville City
4
2
W
H2H at home: Houston Dynamo
24.08.25
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
1
2
L
31.03.24
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
2
1
W
22.06.23
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
4
1
W
10.04.22
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
4
3
W
17.04.21
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
2
1
W
13.04.19
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
2
1
W
30.09.18
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
3
2
W
Last matches: San Jose Earthquakes
20.08.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Los Angeles Galaxy
0
1
L
01.08.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
FC Cincinnati
2
4
L
24.05.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Portland Timbers
3
1
W
14.05.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Seattle Sounders
2
3
L
02.05.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Toronto FC
1
1
D
26.04.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
St. Louis City
3
2
W
19.04.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Los Angeles FC
4
1
W
12.04.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Sporting Kansas City
3
1
W
22.03.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Vancouver Whitecaps
1
0
W
08.03.26
Maj
San Jose Earthquakes
Philadelphia Union
1
0
W
24.01.26
Fri
San Jose Earthquakes
San Diego
0
2
L
H2H away: San Jose Earthquakes
24.08.25
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
1
2
W
31.03.24
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
2
1
L
22.06.23
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
4
1
L
10.04.22
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
4
3
L
17.04.21
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
2
1
L
13.04.19
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
2
1
L
30.09.18
H2H
Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes
3
2
L

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 12 4 4 45:18 27 40
W L W D D
2 21 12 2 7 30:26 4 38
L W W W W
3 22 10 5 7 36:22 14 35
D L L D W
4 21 10 3 8 39:33 6 33
L L L L D
5 21 9 6 6 38:34 4 33
L W W D L
6 21 9 6 6 30:27 3 33
W D W D W
7 21 9 1 11 30:28 2 28
L W W W L
8 20 8 4 8 34:32 2 28
L L D D L
9 21 8 4 9 38:37 1 28
D W L W W
10 21 7 7 7 27:29 -2 28
W L D D D
11 21 7 6 8 37:32 5 27
W L W D W
12 22 6 8 8 27:32 -5 26
D W L D D
13 20 7 4 9 22:27 -5 25
D L L L L
14 21 5 6 10 26:40 -14 21
D W L L L
15 20 4 3 13 19:49 -30 15
D L L L W
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)