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CROATIA › HNL
26.04.2026 14:00
Stadion HNK Rijeka
Referee: A. Culina
HNK Rijeka
Match Timeline
HNK Hajduk Split
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
25'
Ron Raçi
HNK Hajduk Split
🟨
67'
Alfonso Barco
HNK Rijeka
🟨
73'
Rokas Pukštas
HNK Hajduk Split
🔄
81'
A. Pajaziti ↔ A. Guram
HNK Hajduk Split
🔄
83'
M. Devetak ↔ D. Legbo
HNK Rijeka
🔄
83'
D. Cop ↔ A. Juric
HNK Rijeka
🟨
84'
Iker Almena
HNK Hajduk Split
🟨
86'
Roko Brajković
HNK Hajduk Split
🔄
89'
A. Gojak ↔ J. Lasickas
HNK Rijeka
🔄
90+3'
M. Livaja ↔ A. Kalik
HNK Hajduk Split
🔄
90'
I. Almena ↔ B. Durdov
HNK Hajduk Split

HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 52%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
52%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.2%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
HNK Rijeka Win 34.2%
Draw 0%
HNK Hajduk Split Win 65.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
HNK Rijeka1.14
HNK Hajduk Split1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
HNK Rijeka HNK Rijeka
WWDLW
58 GF / 53 GA
HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split
WLDWL
57 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
1.63
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1
21
BTTS Yes
17
20
Over 2.5
17
3.66
Shots on Goal
4.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

HNK Rijeka HNK Rijeka 47 matches
HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split 35 matches
HNK Rijeka Statistic HNK Hajduk Split
17 Wins 20
14 Draws 7
16 Losses 8
58 Goals For 57
53 Goals Against 35
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1
21 BTTS Yes 17
31 Over 1.5 29
20 Over 2.5 17
14 Over 3.5 9
16 Clean Sheets 13
16 Failed To Score 6
3.66 Shots On Goal 4.91
12.19 Total Shots 13.37
4.85 Corners 4.8
47% Ball Possession 52.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with HNK Rijeka expected to line up in 4-4-2 and HNK Hajduk Split in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward HNK Hajduk Split having the stronger overall control. HNK Rijeka have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. HNK Hajduk Split carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 60 points while HNK Rijeka sit 4 on 42, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward HNK Hajduk Split.

HNK Rijeka Analysis

HNK Rijeka sit 4 with 42 points after 31 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 11 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at -:-, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through T. Fruk (11 goals), Tiago Dantas (7 goals), Ante Matej Jurić (4 goals), with creative support from Tiago Dantas (6 assists), A. Orec (4 assists), T. Fruk (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a balanced approach.

HNK Hajduk Split Analysis

HNK Hajduk Split come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 60 points after 31 matches. With 18 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of -:-, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by M. Sego (11 goals), Marko Livaja (9 goals), Rokas Pukštas (8 goals), with creative support from Marko Livaja (5 assists), A. Rebic (5 assists), M. Sego (4 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the split of - wins, - draws, and - losses supports the view of an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward a balanced approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, HNK Rijeka won 8 times, HNK Hajduk Split won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:12 from HNK Rijeka's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: HNK Rijeka 4-4-2 / HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: HNK Rijeka wins 8, draws 4, HNK Hajduk Split wins 3

Standings

HNL
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 36 27 5 4 93:28 65 86
D W W W W
2 36 20 8 8 61:36 25 68
W D L W D
3 36 15 9 12 47:46 1 54
W W D L L
4 36 14 11 11 49:36 13 53
W D W W D
5 36 10 14 12 40:52 -12 44
D D D L D
6 36 12 7 17 39:50 -11 43
L D W W L
7 36 10 11 15 46:61 -15 41
L L W L D
8 36 11 8 17 40:48 -8 41
L W L L W
9 36 8 11 17 27:49 -22 35
W L L L D
10 36 6 10 20 37:73 -36 28
L L L W D
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Conference League Qualification
Relegation