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CROATIA › HNL
23.05.2026 14:00
Stadion HNK Rijeka
Referee: D. Strukan
HNK Rijeka
Match Timeline
HNK Gorica
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
55'
Hadji Issa Moustapha
HNK Gorica
🔄
58'
D. Pavicic ↔ T. Epailly
HNK Gorica
🔄
58'
S. Kucis ↔ O. Bakic
HNK Gorica
🔄
62'
M. Ndockyt ↔ L. Kitin
HNK Rijeka
⚽
66'
A. Gojak · Assist: A. Orec
HNK Rijeka
🔄
73'
B. Bogojevic ↔ W. Sule
HNK Gorica
🔄
77'
T. Fruk ↔ D. Adu Adjei
HNK Rijeka
🟨
78'
Ognjen Bakić
HNK Gorica
🟨
80'
Ante Erceg
HNK Gorica
🔄
83'
H. I. Moustapha ↔ L. Vrzic
HNK Gorica
⚽
84'
A. Gojak · Assist: N. Bodetic
HNK Rijeka
🔄
88'
T. Dantas ↔ D. Petrovic
HNK Rijeka
🔄
88'
A. Juric ↔ G. Grulovic
HNK Rijeka
🔄
88'
A. Orec ↔ V. Vesligaj
HNK Rijeka

HNK Rijeka vs HNK Gorica Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 56.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
75.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
56.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
60.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
HNK Rijeka Win 43.4%
Draw 24.1%
HNK Gorica Win 32.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
HNK Rijeka1.27
HNK Gorica1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
HNK Rijeka HNK Rijeka
WWDLW
64 GF / 53 GA
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica
WLDWL
40 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
1.14
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
21
BTTS Yes
18
22
Over 2.5
16
3.78
Shots on Goal
3.54

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

HNK Rijeka HNK Rijeka 51 matches
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 35 matches
HNK Rijeka Statistic HNK Gorica
19 Wins 11
16 Draws 8
16 Losses 16
64 Goals For 40
53 Goals Against 46
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.14
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
21 BTTS Yes 18
33 Over 1.5 25
22 Over 2.5 16
14 Over 3.5 9
20 Clean Sheets 8
18 Failed To Score 11
3.78 Shots On Goal 3.54
12.18 Total Shots 10.31
5.02 Corners 4.26
47.8% Ball Possession 44.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights HNK Rijeka's more proactive style and HNK Gorica's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with HNK Rijeka expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and HNK Gorica in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward HNK Gorica having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors HNK Gorica.

HNK Rijeka Analysis

Placed 4 with 50 points from 35 outings, HNK Rijeka continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 13 wins, 11 draws, and 11 losses, while the 47:36 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on T. Fruk (12 goals), Tiago Dantas (7 goals), D. Adu Adjei (6 goals), with creative support from Tiago Dantas (6 assists), Mladen Devetak (5 assists), A. Orec (4 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

HNK Gorica Analysis

From their first 35 matches, HNK Gorica have collected 41 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 8 draws, and 16 losses, while the 40:46 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Jurica Pršir (7 goals), A. Erceg (6 goals), F. Cuic (4 goals), with creative support from Iker Pozo (6 assists), Z. Trontelj (4 assists), Marijan Čabraja (4 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, HNK Rijeka won 11 times, HNK Gorica won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:9 from HNK Rijeka's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (75.9%)
Predicted formations: HNK Rijeka 4-2-3-1 / HNK Gorica 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: HNK Rijeka wins 11, draws 2, HNK Gorica wins 2

Standings

HNL
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 36 27 5 4 93:28 65 86
D W W W W
2 36 20 8 8 61:36 25 68
W D L W D
3 36 15 9 12 47:46 1 54
W W D L L
4 36 14 11 11 49:36 13 53
W D W W D
5 36 10 14 12 40:52 -12 44
D D D L D
6 36 12 7 17 39:50 -11 43
L D W W L
7 36 10 11 15 46:61 -15 41
L L W L D
8 36 11 8 17 40:48 -8 41
L W L L W
9 36 8 11 17 27:49 -22 35
W L L L D
10 36 6 10 20 37:73 -36 28
L L L W D
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation