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CROATIA › HNL
09.10.2026 16:00
Gradski stadion Velika Gorica

HNK Gorica vs Rudes Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 88.7%
Odds 1.17
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.82
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
88.7%
1.17 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.82 ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
76.1%
1.27 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
HNK Gorica Win 44%
Draw 44.8%
Rudes Win 11.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
HNK Gorica1.77
Rudes1.4
Recent Form (Last 5)
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica
WWDLW
22 GF / 25 GA
Rudes Rudes
WLDWL
19 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.16
Average Goals Scored
1.46
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
2.69
9
BTTS Yes
8
7
Over 2.5
10
2.88
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 19 matches
Rudes Rudes 13 matches
HNK Gorica Statistic Rudes
6 Wins 3
5 Draws 2
8 Losses 8
22 Goals For 19
25 Goals Against 35
1.16 Avg Goals Scored 1.46
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 2.69
9 BTTS Yes 8
14 Over 1.5 13
7 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 1
6 Failed To Score 4
2.88 Shots On Goal 3
9.88 Total Shots 9.13
2.63 Corners 3.5
43.9% Ball Possession 41.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Rudes arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Rudes.

HNK Gorica Analysis

From their first 8 matches, HNK Gorica have collected 5 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, while the 5:12 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Bruno Bogojević (3 goals), Ivan Cvijanović (1 goals), Jakov Pranjić (1 goals), with creative support from Domagoj Pavičić (1 assists), Juraj Frigan (1 assists), Luka Vrzić (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Rudes Analysis

With 4 points from 8 games and a place of 10, Rudes still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 10:24 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Lenny Ilečić (1 goals), Xavier Fernandes (1 goals), Noa Skoko (1 goals), with creative support from Lenny Ilečić (2 assists), Jurica Poldrugač (2 assists), Vedran Celjak (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, HNK Gorica won 10 times, Rudes won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:9 from HNK Gorica's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (88.7%)
Predicted formations: HNK Gorica 4-2-3-1 / Rudes 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: HNK Gorica wins 10, draws 3, Rudes wins 2

Standings

HNL
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 1 1 17:9 8 16
W L W D W
2 8 5 1 2 16:8 8 16
L W W W W
3 8 5 1 2 17:11 6 16
D W L W L
4 8 4 3 1 13:7 6 15
D D D W L
5 7 4 2 1 13:7 6 14
W D W D W
6 8 2 3 3 14:13 1 9
L W D D L
7 8 2 1 5 11:16 -5 7
L D L L L
8 8 2 1 5 7:16 -9 7
D L W L W
9 8 1 2 5 5:12 -7 5
W D L D L
10
Rudes Away
8 1 1 6 10:24 -14 4
D L L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL