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CROATIA › HNL
02.05.2026 14:00
Gradski stadion Velika Gorica
Referee: I. Vukancic
HNK Gorica
Match Timeline
Dinamo Zagreb
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
5'
A. Hoxha · Assist: J. Misic
Dinamo Zagreb
⚽
12'
J. Prsir · Assist: A. Kavelj
HNK Gorica
🔄
62'
S. McKenna ↔ S. Dominguez
Dinamo Zagreb
🔄
62'
M. Soldo ↔ L. Stojkovic
Dinamo Zagreb
🔄
62'
D. Beljo ↔ F. Topic
Dinamo Zagreb
🟨
65'
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf
Dinamo Zagreb
🔄
66'
J. Prsir ↔ T. Epailly
HNK Gorica
🔄
68'
A. Hoxha ↔ M. Lisica
Dinamo Zagreb
🔄
77'
J. Misic ↔ I. Bennacer
Dinamo Zagreb
🔄
78'
A. Erceg ↔ W. Sule
HNK Gorica
🔄
78'
B. Bogojevic ↔ L. Vrzic
HNK Gorica
🟨
80'
Sergi Domínguez
Dinamo Zagreb
🔄
90'
D. Pavicic ↔ S. Kucis
HNK Gorica
⚽
90'
M. Bakrar · Assist: S. Dominguez
Dinamo Zagreb

HNK Gorica vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 76.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 37.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
76.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
37.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
HNK Gorica Win 23.6%
Draw 0%
Dinamo Zagreb Win 76.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
HNK Gorica1.15
Dinamo Zagreb1.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica
WWDLW
37 GF / 43 GA
Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb
WLDWL
101 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.16
Average Goals Scored
2.4
1.34
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
17
BTTS Yes
24
15
Over 2.5
31
3.53
Shots on Goal
5.79

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 32 matches
Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 42 matches
HNK Gorica Statistic Dinamo Zagreb
10 Wins 27
8 Draws 6
14 Losses 9
37 Goals For 101
43 Goals Against 48
1.16 Avg Goals Scored 2.4
1.34 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
17 BTTS Yes 24
23 Over 1.5 40
15 Over 2.5 31
9 Over 3.5 21
7 Clean Sheets 14
10 Failed To Score 5
3.53 Shots On Goal 5.79
10.66 Total Shots 15.55
4.22 Corners 6.17
44.5% Ball Possession 55.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Dinamo Zagreb's more proactive style and HNK Gorica's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Dinamo Zagreb. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with HNK Gorica expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Dinamo Zagreb in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Dinamo Zagreb having the stronger overall control. Dinamo Zagreb look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Dinamo Zagreb carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 76 points while HNK Gorica sit 6 on 38, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

HNK Gorica Analysis

HNK Gorica are currently 6 in the standings with 38 points from 32 matches. The record of 10 wins, 8 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 37:43 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Jurica Pršir (6 goals), A. Erceg (5 goals), F. Cuic (4 goals), with creative support from Iker Pozo (6 assists), Marijan Čabraja (4 assists), Jurica Pršir (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Dinamo Zagreb Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 76 points from 32 games, Dinamo Zagreb bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 24 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, together with goals at 85:26, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through D. Beljo (29 goals), M. Bakrar (8 goals), M. Zajc (8 goals), with creative support from L. Stojkovic (12 assists), M. Zajc (6 assists), M. Lisica (6 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 11 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, HNK Gorica won 3 times, Dinamo Zagreb won 10 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:35 from HNK Gorica's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: HNK Gorica 3-4-2-1 / Dinamo Zagreb 4-3-3
H2H summary: HNK Gorica wins 3, draws 2, Dinamo Zagreb wins 10

Standings

HNL
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 36 27 5 4 93:28 65 86
D W W W W
2 36 20 8 8 61:36 25 68
W D L W D
3 36 15 9 12 47:46 1 54
W W D L L
4 36 14 11 11 49:36 13 53
W D W W D
5 36 10 14 12 40:52 -12 44
D D D L D
6 36 12 7 17 39:50 -11 43
L D W W L
7 36 10 11 15 46:61 -15 41
L L W L D
8 36 11 8 17 40:48 -8 41
L W L L W
9 36 8 11 17 27:49 -22 35
W L L L D
10 36 6 10 20 37:73 -36 28
L L L W D
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation