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SCOTLAND › PREMIERSHIP
16.05.2026 11:30
Easter Road
Referee: N. Walsh
Hibernian
Match Timeline
Motherwell
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
16'
R. Bushiri ↔ G. Hanley
Hibernian
🟨
32'
Elliot Watt
Motherwell
⚽
35'
L. Fadinger · Assist: R. Charles-Cook
Motherwell
🟨
45+3'
Jamie McGrath
Hibernian
🔄
46'
J. McGrath ↔ D. Barlaser
Hibernian
🔄
46'
J. Newell ↔ J. Mulligan
Hibernian
🟨
53'
Josh Mulligan
Hibernian
🟨
53'
Regan Charles-Cook
Motherwell
🔄
58'
↔ D. Scarlett
Hibernian
VAR
63'
Stephen Welsh
Motherwell
🟨
66'
Callum Slattery
Motherwell
🟨
67'
Elliot Watt
Motherwell
🟥
67'
Elliot Watt
Motherwell
🔄
70'
O. Elding ↔ A. Suto
Hibernian
🟨
71'
Miguel Changa Chaiwa
Hibernian
🔄
73'
E. Just ↔ J. Koutroumbis
Motherwell
🔄
73'
R. Charles-Cook ↔ I. Said
Motherwell
🔄
73'
C. Slattery ↔ O. Priestman
Motherwell
🟨
74'
Lukas Fadinger
Motherwell
🔄
83'
T. Maswanhise ↔ C. Hendry
Motherwell
🟨
84'
Martin Boyle
Hibernian
🔄
87'
E. Longelo ↔ S. O'Donnell
Motherwell
🟨
89'
Nicky Cadden
Hibernian

Hibernian vs Motherwell Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
76.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Hibernian Win 62.5%
Draw 6.9%
Motherwell Win 30.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Hibernian1.34
Motherwell1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Hibernian Hibernian
WWDLW
68 GF / 54 GA
Motherwell Motherwell
WLDWL
58 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.58
Average Goals Scored
1.57
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
0.97
25
BTTS Yes
18
25
Over 2.5
15
4.21
Shots on Goal
4.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Hibernian Hibernian 43 matches
Motherwell Motherwell 37 matches
Hibernian Statistic Motherwell
16 Wins 15
14 Draws 13
13 Losses 9
68 Goals For 58
54 Goals Against 36
1.58 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
1.26 Avg Goals Conceded 0.97
25 BTTS Yes 18
35 Over 1.5 29
25 Over 2.5 15
13 Over 3.5 11
12 Clean Sheets 17
10 Failed To Score 7
4.21 Shots On Goal 4.78
11.19 Total Shots 13.16
4.49 Corners 3.84
42.2% Ball Possession 58.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Hibernian expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Motherwell in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Motherwell having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Motherwell. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Hibernian Analysis

Hibernian sit 5 with 54 points after 36 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 14 wins, 12 draws, and 10 defeats with a 56:42 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. McGrath (8 goals), K. Bowie (8 goals), M. Boyle (7 goals), with creative support from Josh Mulligan (5 assists), N. Cadden (5 assists), J. McGrath (4 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Motherwell Analysis

Motherwell approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 4 with 58 points from 36 matches. Their record of 15 wins, 13 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 56:33, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through T. Maswanhise (17 goals), E. Longelo (8 goals), E. Just (7 goals), with creative support from C. Slattery (8 assists), E. Just (7 assists), E. Longelo (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Hibernian won 5 times, Motherwell won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:19 from Hibernian's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.1%)
Predicted formations: Hibernian 3-4-1-2 / Motherwell 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Hibernian wins 5, draws 4, Motherwell wins 6

Standings

Premiership
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 21 7 5 58:28 30 70
L W D W W
2 33 19 12 2 66:31 35 69
W L L L L
3 33 21 4 8 59:35 24 67
W W W W W
4 33 14 12 7 52:29 23 54
W L D L W
5 33 13 12 8 51:37 14 51
L W W L L
6 33 13 7 13 45:48 -3 46
L L L W L
7 33 9 13 11 45:54 -9 40
D D L L W
8 33 9 6 18 33:48 -15 33
L L W D W
9 33 8 9 16 34:53 -19 33
W L W W L
10 33 7 9 17 27:48 -21 30
W D D W L
11 33 6 10 17 37:65 -28 28
W W W W L
12 33 1 13 19 35:66 -31 16
L D L D W
Championship round
Relegation Round