FRANCE LIGUE 2
--.--.---- --:--
Stade de Roudourou
Referee: E. Rosier
Guingamp
Match Timeline
Bastia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
44'
S. Nair ↔ A. Sissoko
Guingamp
51'
R. Beliandjou
Bastia
🔄
60'
J. Matumona ↔ E. Koffi
Guingamp
🔄
60'
A. Sagna ↔ F. Mbemba
Guingamp
🔄
61'
K. Sidibe ↔ Y. Demoncy
Guingamp
🔄
70'
T. Ahile ↔ Y. Njoya
Guingamp
🔄
71'
J. Eickmayer ↔ F. Bohnert
Bastia
🔄
72'
R. Beliandjou ↔ J. Sebas
Bastia
🔄
85'
A. Zaouai ↔ A. Boutrah
Bastia

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 80.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 33.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
80.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
33.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Guingamp Win 48.7%
Draw 19.4%
Bastia Win 31.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Guingamp1.27
Bastia1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Guingamp Guingamp
WWDLW
48 GF / 49 GA
Bastia Bastia
WLDWL
29 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
0.83
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
18
BTTS Yes
11
21
Over 2.5
7
4
Shots on Goal
3.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Guingamp Guingamp 35 matches
Bastia Bastia 35 matches
Guingamp Statistic Bastia
12 Wins 6
10 Draws 14
13 Losses 15
48 Goals For 29
49 Goals Against 39
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 0.83
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
18 BTTS Yes 11
25 Over 1.5 20
21 Over 2.5 7
12 Over 3.5 7
10 Clean Sheets 13
10 Failed To Score 18
4 Shots On Goal 3.67
12.36 Total Shots 11.55
5.42 Corners 4.36
56.1% Ball Possession 51.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Bastia. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Guingamp expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Bastia in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bastia having the stronger overall control. Guingamp have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Guingamp Analysis

With 40 points from 32 games and a place of 11, Guingamp still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 10 wins, 10 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 42:47, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Louis Mafouta (15 goals), D. Gomis (4 goals), S. Kielt (4 goals), with creative support from A. Hemia (5 assists), Louis Mafouta (4 assists), G. Ott (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Bastia Analysis

With 25 points from 32 games and a place of 17, Bastia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 13 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 22:37 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Felix Tomi (4 goals), J. Sebas (4 goals), Joachim Eickmayer (3 goals), with creative support from Felix Tomi (2 assists), A. Boutrah (2 assists), Alexandre Bi Zaouai (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Guingamp won 4 times, Bastia won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:19 from Guingamp's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.6%)
Predicted formations: Guingamp 4-4-2 / Bastia 5-3-2
H2H summary: Guingamp wins 4, draws 5, Bastia wins 6
Stats
Guingamp Guingamp
Bastia Bastia
Shots on Goal
0
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
3
2 Corner Kicks 5
8 Fouls 11
4 Offsides 1
69% Ball Possession 31%
9 Total Shots 11
0 Shots on Goal 6
5 Shots off Goal 2
4 Blocked Shots 3
3 Shots insidebox 9
6 Shots outsidebox 2
5 Goalkeeper Saves 0
568 Total passes 251
477 Passes accurate 156
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Guingamp
Formation
Bastia
A. Ortola
A. Ortola
J. Matumona
J. Matumona
A. Demouchy
A. Demouchy
S. Nair
S. Nair
A. Abdallah
A. Abdallah
K. Sidibe
K. Sidibe
D. Louiserre
D. Louiserre
A. Sagna
A. Sagna
S. Kielt
S. Kielt
T. Ahile
T. Ahile
L. Mafouta
L. Mafouta
L. Olmeta
L. Olmeta
T. Meynadier
T. Meynadier
G. Akueson
G. Akueson
D. Guidi
D. Guidi
Z. Ariss
Z. Ariss
T. Ducrocq
T. Ducrocq
J. Janneh
J. Janneh
F. Tomi
F. Tomi
J. Eickmayer
J. Eickmayer
A. Zaouai
A. Zaouai
R. Beliandjou
R. Beliandjou
Guingamp 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
16
A. Ortola
G
3
J. Matumona
↓ 60'
D
36
A. Demouchy
D
18
S. Nair
↓ 44'
D
29
A. Abdallah
D
8
K. Sidibe
↓ 61'
M
4
D. Louiserre
M
11
A. Sagna
↓ 60'
M
27
S. Kielt
M
39
T. Ahile
↓ 70'
M
9
L. Mafouta
F
Substitutes
1
T. Bartouche-Selbonne
G
21
Y. Demoncy
↑ 61'
M
2
E. Koffi
↑ 60'
D
37
T. Matondo
M
17
F. Mbemba
↑ 60'
F
22
A. Sissoko
↑ 44'
D
34
Y. Njoya
↑ 70'
F
Bastia 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
L. Olmeta
G
24
T. Meynadier
D
28
G. Akueson
D
6
D. Guidi
D
5
Z. Ariss
D
13
T. Ducrocq
M
66
J. Janneh
M
9
F. Tomi
M
17
J. Eickmayer
↓ 71'
M
18
A. Zaouai
↓ 85'
M
33
R. Beliandjou
⚽ 51' ↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
16
S. Contena
G
4
A. Roncaglia
D
7
C. Vincent
M
15
F. Bohnert
↑ 71'
D
10
A. Boutrah
↑ 85'
F
8
I. Karamoko
F
14
J. Sebas
↑ 72'
F
Last matches: Guingamp
09.05.26
Lig
Guingamp
Clermont Foot
0
1
L
24.04.26
Lig
Guingamp
RED Star FC 93
2
3
L
17.04.26
Lig
Guingamp
PAU
1
2
L
10.04.26
Lig
Guingamp
Grenoble
1
1
D
03.04.26
Lig
Guingamp
Annecy
0
1
L
21.03.26
Lig
Guingamp
Reims
0
2
L
13.03.26
Lig
Guingamp
Amiens
1
0
W
06.03.26
Lig
Guingamp
Laval
2
2
D
28.02.26
Lig
Guingamp
Rodez
0
0
D
23.02.26
Lig
Guingamp
Le Mans
1
1
D
14.02.26
Lig
Guingamp
Saint Etienne
1
2
L
06.02.26
Lig
Guingamp
Dunkerque
0
0
D
30.01.26
Lig
Guingamp
Montpellier
1
3
L
24.01.26
Lig
Guingamp
Estac Troyes
1
0
W
19.01.26
Lig
Guingamp
Nancy
3
0
W
03.01.26
Lig
Guingamp
Boulogne
3
0
W
19.12.25
Cou
Guingamp
Laval
0
1
L
12.12.25
Lig
Guingamp
Rodez
1
2
L
05.12.25
Lig
Guingamp
Annecy
0
3
L
29.11.25
Cou
Guingamp
Ancienne Château-Gontier
4
0
W
Last matches: Bastia
09.05.26
Lig
Bastia
Le Mans
0
2
L
24.04.26
Lig
Bastia
Clermont Foot
1
1
D
18.04.26
Lig
Bastia
Saint Etienne
2
0
W
11.04.26
Lig
Bastia
RED Star FC 93
3
4
L
03.04.26
Lig
Bastia
Amiens
1
1
D
20.03.26
Lig
Bastia
Rodez
1
1
D
13.03.26
Lig
Bastia
Boulogne
0
1
L
06.03.26
Lig
Bastia
PAU
2
2
D
27.02.26
Lig
Bastia
Annecy
0
2
L
20.02.26
Lig
Bastia
Dunkerque
1
1
D
16.02.26
Lig
Bastia
Estac Troyes
0
0
D
06.02.26
Lig
Bastia
Reims
0
0
D
30.01.26
Lig
Bastia
Nancy
0
0
D
23.01.26
Lig
Bastia
Montpellier
0
2
L
16.01.26
Lig
Bastia
Laval
2
0
W
10.01.26
Cou
Bastia
Estac Troyes
0
2
L
03.01.26
Lig
Bastia
Grenoble
1
0
W
20.12.25
Cou
Bastia
Pontivy GSI
1
0
W
13.12.25
Lig
Bastia
Saint Etienne
2
2
D
29.11.25
Cou
Bastia
Saint-Malo
0
0
D
H2H: Guingamp vs Bastia
02.05.26
H2H
Guingamp
Bastia
0
1
L
30.08.25
H2H
Bastia
Guingamp
1
3
W
02.05.25
H2H
Guingamp
Bastia
2
2
D
13.12.24
H2H
Bastia
Guingamp
3
1
L
20.04.24
H2H
Guingamp
Bastia
0
1
L
28.10.23
H2H
Bastia
Guingamp
0
0
D
18.02.23
H2H
Bastia
Guingamp
1
1
D
22.10.22
H2H
Guingamp
Bastia
1
1
D
16.04.22
H2H
Bastia
Guingamp
1
2
W
06.11.21
H2H
Guingamp
Bastia
2
3
L
11.03.17
H2H
Guingamp
SC Bastia
5
0
W
26.10.16
H2H
SC Bastia
Guingamp
1
1
D
24.09.16
H2H
SC Bastia
Guingamp
1
0
L
23.01.16
H2H
Guingamp
Bastia
1
0
W
22.08.15
H2H
Bastia
Guingamp
3
0
L
Last matches: Guingamp
10.04.26
Lig
Guingamp
Grenoble
1
1
D
21.03.26
Lig
Guingamp
Reims
0
2
L
13.03.26
Lig
Guingamp
Amiens
1
0
W
28.02.26
Lig
Guingamp
Rodez
0
0
D
14.02.26
Lig
Guingamp
Saint Etienne
1
2
L
24.01.26
Lig
Guingamp
Estac Troyes
1
0
W
03.01.26
Lig
Guingamp
Boulogne
3
0
W
19.12.25
Cou
Guingamp
Laval
0
1
L
05.12.25
Lig
Guingamp
Annecy
0
3
L
08.11.25
Lig
Guingamp
PAU
2
2
D
31.10.25
Lig
Guingamp
Laval
2
0
W
24.10.25
Lig
Guingamp
Clermont Foot
0
1
L
03.10.25
Lig
Guingamp
Nancy
2
2
D
23.09.25
Lig
Guingamp
Dunkerque
2
1
W
15.09.25
Lig
Guingamp
Montpellier
1
0
W
23.08.25
Lig
Guingamp
RED Star FC 93
0
4
L
09.08.25
Lig
Guingamp
Le Mans
3
3
D
H2H at home: Guingamp
02.05.26
H2H
Guingamp
Bastia
0
1
L
02.05.25
H2H
Guingamp
Bastia
2
2
D
20.04.24
H2H
Guingamp
Bastia
0
1
L
22.10.22
H2H
Guingamp
Bastia
1
1
D
06.11.21
H2H
Guingamp
Bastia
2
3
L
11.03.17
H2H
Guingamp
SC Bastia
5
0
W
23.01.16
H2H
Guingamp
Bastia
1
0
W
Last matches: Bastia
24.04.26
Lig
Bastia
Clermont Foot
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lig
Bastia
RED Star FC 93
3
4
L
20.03.26
Lig
Bastia
Rodez
1
1
D
06.03.26
Lig
Bastia
PAU
2
2
D
20.02.26
Lig
Bastia
Dunkerque
1
1
D
06.02.26
Lig
Bastia
Reims
0
0
D
16.01.26
Lig
Bastia
Laval
2
0
W
20.12.25
Cou
Bastia
Pontivy GSI
1
0
W
13.12.25
Lig
Bastia
Saint Etienne
2
2
D
29.11.25
Cou
Bastia
Saint-Malo
0
0
D
21.11.25
Lig
Bastia
Annecy
0
1
L
15.11.25
Cou
Bastia
US Chateau-Malo
6
0
W
28.10.25
Lig
Bastia
Nancy
0
2
L
17.10.25
Lig
Bastia
Estac Troyes
0
1
L
26.09.25
Lig
Bastia
Grenoble
0
0
D
20.09.25
Lig
Bastia
Montpellier
0
2
L
16.09.25
Lig
Bastia
Boulogne
0
1
L
12.09.25
Lig
Bastia
Amiens
0
0
D
22.08.25
Lig
Bastia
Le Mans
0
1
L
H2H away: Bastia
02.05.26
H2H
Guingamp
Bastia
0
1
W
02.05.25
H2H
Guingamp
Bastia
2
2
D
20.04.24
H2H
Guingamp
Bastia
0
1
W
22.10.22
H2H
Guingamp
Bastia
1
1
D
06.11.21
H2H
Guingamp
Bastia
2
3
W
23.01.16
H2H
Guingamp
Bastia
1
0
L

Standings

Ligue 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 20 7 7 60:33 27 67
L W W W L
2 34 16 14 4 50:31 19 62
W D D W D
3 34 18 6 10 59:38 21 60
W L L L W
4 34 16 10 8 45:37 8 58
D W W L W
5 34 15 13 6 45:39 6 58
W W D W W
6 34 14 14 6 53:35 18 56
W D D W D
7 34 15 7 12 49:39 10 52
L W W W D
8 34 14 9 11 41:31 10 51
D L W W D
9 34 12 9 13 48:62 -14 45
L L L W W
10 34 11 10 13 53:45 8 43
L L W L L
11 34 10 10 14 42:49 -7 40
L L L L D
12 34 8 15 11 33:39 -6 39
W W D L D
13 34 9 10 15 38:44 -6 37
W W D L D
14 34 9 10 15 35:52 -17 37
W W D L D
15 34 9 9 16 34:49 -15 36
L L L L D
16 34 6 14 14 30:48 -18 32
W D W L D
17 34 5 13 16 23:39 -16 28
L W D W L
18 34 6 6 22 37:65 -28 24
L L L L L
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation