NETHERLANDS › EREDIVISIE
18.09.2026 18:00
Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion
Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
Groningen
Match Timeline
PEC Zwolle
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
20'
T. van Bergen · Assist: D. van der Werff
Groningen
🔄
28'
I. Cissoko ↔ E. Sorensen
PEC Zwolle
⚽
43'
J. Schreuders
Groningen
🔄
61'
D. Mbayo ↔ G. Reiziger
PEC Zwolle
🔄
61'
T. Oosting ↔ S. van Hooijdonk
PEC Zwolle
🔄
66'
M. Rente ↔ H. Hateboer
Groningen
🔄
66'
J. Ondrejka ↔ T. Land
Groningen
⚽
68'
T. Land · Assist: D. van der Werff
Groningen
🟨
79'
Koen Kostons
PEC Zwolle
🟨
79'
Sherel Constancio Floranus
PEC Zwolle
🔄
80'
O. Aertssen ↔ J. Burger
PEC Zwolle
🔄
80'
K. Kostons ↔ G. van der Wal
PEC Zwolle
🔄
85'
B. Willumsson ↔ A. Nordin
Groningen
🔄
85'
D. van der Werff ↔ N. Eggens
Groningen
🔄
90'
M. Csinger ↔ J. Mosselaar
Groningen

Groningen vs PEC Zwolle Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.4%
Odds 1.55
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.41
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.4%
1.55 ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
1.50 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.41 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.1%
1.20 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Groningen Win 60.4%
Draw 11%
PEC Zwolle Win 28.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Groningen1.87
PEC Zwolle1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Groningen Groningen
WWDLW
18 GF / 27 GA
PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle
WLDWL
11 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.1
2.08
Average Goals Conceded
2.6
9
BTTS Yes
5
10
Over 2.5
7
5.17
Shots on Goal
3.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Groningen Groningen 13 matches
PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 10 matches
Groningen Statistic PEC Zwolle
4 Wins 2
3 Draws 1
6 Losses 7
18 Goals For 11
27 Goals Against 26
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
2.08 Avg Goals Conceded 2.6
9 BTTS Yes 5
11 Over 1.5 9
10 Over 2.5 7
7 Over 3.5 6
2 Clean Sheets 1
3 Failed To Score 4
5.17 Shots On Goal 3.83
14.5 Total Shots 10.83
4.33 Corners 3.83
49.2% Ball Possession 38.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. PEC Zwolle arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors PEC Zwolle. Groningen arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 10 with 7 points compared to PEC Zwolle in 13 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Groningen Analysis

So far, Groningen have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 7 points from 5 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, while the 11:12 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on T. van Bergen (3 goals), B. Willumsson (3 goals), D. van der Werff (2 goals), with creative support from T. van Bergen (2 assists), D. van der Werff (1 assists), T. Land (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

PEC Zwolle Analysis

With 4 points from 5 games and a place of 13, PEC Zwolle still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 6:10, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through K. Kostons (2 goals), N. Viergever (1 goals), E. Sørensen (1 goals), with creative support from D. Mbayo (2 assists), T. Sommer (1 assists), T. Oosting (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Groningen won 3 times, PEC Zwolle won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:16 from Groningen's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89%)
Predicted formations: Groningen 4-2-3-1 / PEC Zwolle 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Groningen 5, PEC Zwolle 3
H2H summary: Groningen wins 3, draws 6, PEC Zwolle wins 6

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 6 1 0 18:6 12 19
W D W W W
2 7 5 2 0 25:7 18 17
W W W D W
3 7 5 1 1 24:10 14 16
L W W W W
4 7 5 1 1 15:7 8 16
W W W D W
5 7 4 2 1 21:9 12 14
D W W L W
6 7 4 1 2 13:14 -1 13
W L W W L
7 7 3 2 2 15:9 6 11
D L D W W
8 7 3 2 2 15:13 2 11
W D D L L
9 7 2 4 1 16:14 2 10
D D D L W
10 7 2 3 2 11:9 2 9
W D L D L
11 7 2 2 3 12:13 -1 8
D L D L W
12 7 1 2 4 10:17 -7 5
L L D L D
13 7 1 2 4 5:12 -7 5
L D L D L
14 7 1 2 4 10:19 -9 5
D W D L L
15 7 1 2 4 11:24 -13 5
L W D L D
16 7 1 1 5 6:20 -14 4
L L D L W
17 7 0 2 5 7:17 -10 2
D L L D L
18 7 0 2 5 6:20 -14 2
L L D L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie