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BRAZIL › SERIE A
12.09.2026 19:00
Arena do Grêmio
Referee: R. Claus
Gremio
Match Timeline
Vasco DA Gama
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
7'
Pedro Gabriel
Gremio
🟨
26'
Tchê Tchê
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
32'
Wallace
Gremio
⚽
39'
M. Villasanti
Gremio
🟨
45+2'
Cuiabano
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
53'
Robert Renan
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
55'
Paulo Henrique ↔ J. Rodriguez
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
55'
Adson ↔ Bruno Duarte
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
58'
Diego Caito
Gremio
🔄
61'
J. Cabral ↔ J. Nardoni
Gremio
🔄
71'
Tete ↔ J. Enamorado
Gremio
🔄
73'
Tche Tche ↔ A. Lescano
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
73'
C. Cuesta ↔ Jair
Vasco DA Gama
⚽
76'
Thiago Mendes
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
79'
Cuiabano ↔ Lucas Piton
Vasco DA Gama
⚽
80'
F. Colidio · Assist: Bruno Duarte
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
86'
Walter Kannemann ↔ Matheus Nascimento
Gremio

Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74%
Odds 2.80
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds 2.12
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74%
2.80 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
2.12 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.17 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Gremio Win 74%
Draw 13.2%
Vasco DA Gama Win 12.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gremio1.35
Vasco DA Gama1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gremio Gremio
WWDLW
33 GF / 37 GA
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WLDWL
27 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.6
17
BTTS Yes
16
14
Over 2.5
14
3.64
Shots on Goal
5.16

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gremio Gremio 28 matches
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 25 matches
Gremio Statistic Vasco DA Gama
9 Wins 6
7 Draws 7
12 Losses 12
33 Goals For 27
37 Goals Against 40
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.6
17 BTTS Yes 16
21 Over 1.5 18
14 Over 2.5 14
5 Over 3.5 6
5 Clean Sheets 2
9 Failed To Score 8
3.64 Shots On Goal 5.16
11.32 Total Shots 17.28
4.28 Corners 5.48
49.8% Ball Possession 53.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Vasco DA Gama. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Gremio Analysis

Gremio sit 15 with 28 points after 24 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 27:32, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), Cristian Pavón (2 goals), Gustavo Martins (2 goals), with creative support from Cristian Pavón (4 assists), Francis Amuzu (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

Vasco DA Gama sit 17 with 25 points after 24 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 27:39, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Andrés Gómez (4 goals), David (3 goals), Thiago Mendes (3 goals), with creative support from Puma Rodríguez (3 assists), David (2 assists), Cuiabano (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gremio won 8 times, Vasco DA Gama won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:11 from Gremio's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (87.3%)
Predicted formations: Gremio 4-1-4-1 / Vasco DA Gama 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Gremio 4, Vasco DA Gama 2
H2H summary: Gremio wins 8, draws 3, Vasco DA Gama wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 28 12 7 9 37:32 5 43
W D W L W
8 28 11 8 9 43:41 2 41
W W W W W
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
11 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L W L W W
12 29 10 6 13 32:42 -10 36
W L D W L
13 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
14 29 8 9 12 34:43 -9 33
D W D W L
15 29 8 8 13 30:34 -4 32
L L L L L
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 29 7 10 12 32:37 -5 31
W L W L L
18 29 7 9 13 31:39 -8 30
D D L L L
19 29 5 9 15 33:48 -15 24
D L L L L
20 28 3 9 16 29:57 -28 18
L D L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B