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BRAZIL › SERIE A
26.07.2026 21:30
Arena do Grêmio
Referee: Edina Alves Batista, Brazil
Gremio
Match Timeline
Fluminense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
12'
Hércules
Fluminense
🟨
13'
Guga
Fluminense
🔄
21'
Guilherme Arana ↔ Renê
Fluminense
VAR
62'
Hulk
Fluminense
⚽
65'
Hulk
Fluminense
🟨
69'
Thiago Silva
Fluminense
🔄
69'
Erick Noriega ↔ Martin Braithwaite
Gremio
🔄
69'
Cristian Pavón ↔ Diego Caito
Gremio
🔄
75'
Luciano Acosta ↔ Nonato
Fluminense
🔄
75'
Hulk ↔ Germán Cano
Fluminense
🟨
77'
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
🔄
78'
Francis Amuzu ↔ Jovane Cabral
Gremio
🔄
78'
Tetê ↔ José Enamorado
Gremio
🟨
79'
Agustín Canobbio
Fluminense
🔄
80'
Marlon ↔ Pedro Gabriel
Gremio
🔄
86'
Kevin Serna ↔ Ignácio
Fluminense
🔄
87'
Hércules ↔ Yeferson Soteldo
Fluminense
⚽
89'
Diego Caito · Assist: Jovane Cabral
Gremio
🟨
90+2'
Juan Nardoni
Gremio

Gremio vs Fluminense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 93.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
93.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Gremio Win 47.8%
Draw 6.9%
Fluminense Win 45.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gremio1.21
Fluminense1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gremio Gremio
WWDLW
27 GF / 29 GA
Fluminense Fluminense
WLDWL
44 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
1.63
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
14
BTTS Yes
19
11
Over 2.5
14
3.63
Shots on Goal
5.48

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gremio Gremio 22 matches
Fluminense Fluminense 27 matches
Gremio Statistic Fluminense
7 Wins 13
6 Draws 7
9 Losses 7
27 Goals For 44
29 Goals Against 32
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
14 BTTS Yes 19
17 Over 1.5 23
11 Over 2.5 14
4 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 4
3.63 Shots On Goal 5.48
11.21 Total Shots 15.08
3.89 Corners 5.16
49.7% Ball Possession 60.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Fluminense's more proactive style and Gremio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Fluminense. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gremio expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Fluminense in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fluminense having the stronger overall control. Gremio have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Fluminense carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 32 points while Gremio sit 16 on 21, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Gremio Analysis

With 21 points from 19 games and a place of 16, Gremio still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats with a 21:25 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), Tetê (2 goals), Gabriel Mec (2 goals), with creative support from Francis Amuzu (3 assists), Cristian Pavón (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fluminense Analysis

Fluminense arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 32 points after 19 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 29:24 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by John Kennedy (8 goals), Luciano Acosta (3 goals), Rodrigo Castillo (3 goals), with creative support from Luciano Acosta (3 assists), Agustín Canobbio (2 assists), Guga (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gremio won 8 times, Fluminense won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:16 from Gremio's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.1%)
Predicted formations: Gremio 4-3-3 / Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Gremio 5, Fluminense 4
H2H summary: Gremio wins 8, draws 2, Fluminense wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 28 12 7 9 37:32 5 43
W D W L W
8 28 11 8 9 43:41 2 41
W W W W W
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L W L W W
11 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L L D L L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B