Gremio vs Fluminense Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | No Draw |
93.1%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
82.4%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
77.2%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Gremio
Fluminense
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Gremio
22 matches
Fluminense
27 matches
| Gremio | Statistic | Fluminense |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Wins | 13 |
| 6 | Draws | 7 |
| 9 | Losses | 7 |
| 27 | Goals For | 44 |
| 29 | Goals Against | 32 |
| 1.23 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.63 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.19 |
| 14 | BTTS Yes | 19 |
| 17 | Over 1.5 | 23 |
| 11 | Over 2.5 | 14 |
| 4 | Over 3.5 | 7 |
| 5 | Clean Sheets | 5 |
| 6 | Failed To Score | 4 |
| 3.63 | Shots On Goal | 5.48 |
| 11.21 | Total Shots | 15.08 |
| 3.89 | Corners | 5.16 |
| 49.7% | Ball Possession | 60.8% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Fluminense's more proactive style and Gremio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Fluminense. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gremio expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Fluminense in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fluminense having the stronger overall control. Gremio have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Fluminense carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 32 points while Gremio sit 16 on 21, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.
With 21 points from 19 games and a place of 16, Gremio still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats with a 21:25 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), Tetê (2 goals), Gabriel Mec (2 goals), with creative support from Francis Amuzu (3 assists), Cristian Pavón (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Fluminense arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 32 points after 19 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 29:24 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by John Kennedy (8 goals), Luciano Acosta (3 goals), Rodrigo Castillo (3 goals), with creative support from Luciano Acosta (3 assists), Agustín Canobbio (2 assists), Guga (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gremio won 8 times, Fluminense won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:16 from Gremio's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 55:23 | 32 | 60 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 47:21 | 26 | 57 |
D
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 3 | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43:32 | 11 | 49 |
W
D
L
D
W
|
|
| 4 |
Fluminense
Away
|
28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 44:36 | 8 | 48 |
W
L
W
D
W
|
| 5 | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43:35 | 8 | 46 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 6 | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 42:40 | 2 | 45 |
W
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 7 | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 37:32 | 5 | 43 |
W
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 43:41 | 2 | 41 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 9 | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37:43 | -6 | 38 |
L
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 33:32 | 1 | 36 |
L
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 11 | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 33:32 | 1 | 36 |
L
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 12 | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 41:45 | -4 | 35 |
L
W
D
D
L
|
|
| 13 | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 28:42 | -14 | 33 |
L
D
W
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 29:32 | -3 | 32 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 15 | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 33:42 | -9 | 32 |
W
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 16 | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 34:41 | -7 | 31 |
W
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 17 |
Gremio
Home
|
28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30:38 | -8 | 29 |
D
L
L
L
W
|
| 18 | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 30:36 | -6 | 28 |
L
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 19 | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 32:47 | -15 | 23 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 20 | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 29:53 | -24 | 18 |
D
L
W
L
W
|