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BRAZIL › SERIE A
10.05.2026 22:30
Arena do Grêmio
Referee: Davi de Oliveira Lacerda, Brazil
Gremio
Match Timeline
Flamengo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
10'
Pedro Gabriel ↔ Caio Paulista
Gremio
🟨
20'
Jorginho
Flamengo
🟨
44'
Cristian Pavón
Gremio
🟨
45+3'
Evertton Araujo
Flamengo
🔄
64'
Gonzalo Plata ↔ Luiz Araújo
Flamengo
🔄
65'
Leonel Pérez ↔ Tiaguinho
Gremio
🔄
65'
Ayrton Lucas ↔ Emerson Royal
Flamengo
⚽
68'
Jorge Carrascal · Assist: Emerson Royal
Flamengo
🟨
73'
Pedro
Flamengo
🔄
77'
Cristian Pavón ↔ Martin Braithwaite
Gremio
🔄
77'
Francis Amuzu ↔ José Enamorado
Gremio
🔄
87'
Pedro ↔ Bruno Henrique
Flamengo
🔄
87'
Jorge Carrascal ↔ Nicolás de la Cruz
Flamengo

Gremio vs Flamengo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 53.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 61.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
53.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
61.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Gremio Win 37.9%
Draw 8.7%
Flamengo Win 53.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gremio0.99
Flamengo1.69
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gremio Gremio
WWDLW
15 GF / 16 GA
Flamengo Flamengo
WLDWL
33 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
2.06
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
7
BTTS Yes
9
5
Over 2.5
10
3.79
Shots on Goal
5.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gremio Gremio 14 matches
Flamengo Flamengo 16 matches
Gremio Statistic Flamengo
4 Wins 10
5 Draws 4
5 Losses 2
15 Goals For 33
16 Goals Against 14
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 2.06
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
7 BTTS Yes 9
10 Over 1.5 16
5 Over 2.5 10
1 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 1
3.79 Shots On Goal 5.56
12.36 Total Shots 14.31
4 Corners 3.94
51.9% Ball Possession 52.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Flamengo's more proactive style and Gremio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gremio expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Flamengo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Flamengo having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Flamengo look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Flamengo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 27 points while Gremio sit 14 on 17, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Flamengo.

Gremio Analysis

Gremio approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 17 points from 14 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats with a 15:16 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Carlos Vinicius (7 goals), Edenilson (4 goals), Camutanga (1 goals), with creative support from Edenilson (2 assists), F. Amuzu (2 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Flamengo Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 27 points from 13 games, Flamengo bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 8 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 26:12, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Pedro (8 goals), G. de Arrascaeta (3 goals), Lucas Paquetá (3 goals), with creative support from Samuel Lino (5 assists), Pedro (3 assists), Guillermo Varela (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gremio won 3 times, Flamengo won 9 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:29 from Gremio's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.3%)
Predicted formations: Gremio 3-4-2-1 / Flamengo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Gremio 8, Flamengo 4
H2H summary: Gremio wins 3, draws 3, Flamengo wins 9

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 20 7 4 61:25 36 67
W W D W W
2 31 19 9 3 54:22 32 66
W W W D W
3 31 15 8 8 49:37 12 53
L W D W D
4 31 15 6 10 50:46 4 51
W L W W L
5 31 14 9 8 49:39 10 51
L L W W L
6 31 14 8 9 42:35 7 50
W W D W D
7 31 13 10 8 44:39 5 49
L W L L W
8 31 12 9 10 48:46 2 45
W L D W W
9 31 12 6 13 36:35 1 42
W W L L W
10 31 11 8 12 39:36 3 41
D W D L L
11 31 10 9 12 44:48 -4 39
W D L L W
12 31 10 9 12 38:49 -11 39
L D L L D
13 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
14 31 9 9 13 36:44 -8 36
W L D W D
15 30 9 8 13 36:43 -7 35
L D W W W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 31 7 11 13 33:40 -7 32
L D W L W
18 31 7 10 14 34:44 -10 31
L D D D L
19 31 5 11 15 34:49 -15 26
D D D L L
20 30 3 9 18 30:62 -32 18
L L L D L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B