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19.09.2026 17:30
Víctor Legrotaglie
Referee: Carlos Andres Gariano, Argentina
Gimnasia M.
Match Timeline
Deportivo Riestra
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
B. Andrada ↔ M. Vargas
Gimnasia M.
🔄
46'
N. Barboza ↔ I. Sabatini
Gimnasia M.
🔄
46'
A. Stringa ↔ P. Ramirez
Deportivo Riestra
🟨
48'
Pedro Ramírez
Deportivo Riestra
🟨
51'
Agustín Modica
Gimnasia M.
🔄
57'
A. Graneros ↔ T. Gonzalez
Deportivo Riestra
🟨
60'
Luciano Cingolani
Gimnasia M.
VAR
68'
Ignacio Sabatini
Gimnasia M.
🟥
69'
Ignacio Sabatini
Gimnasia M.
🔄
70'
U. Sanchez ↔ T. Ortiz
Gimnasia M.
🔄
70'
L. Cingolani ↔ B. Armoa
Gimnasia M.
🔄
80'
L. Paredes ↔ J. Franco
Gimnasia M.
🔄
84'
J. Goitia ↔ N. Watson
Deportivo Riestra
🔄
84'
A. Diaz ↔ A. Alonso
Deportivo Riestra
🟨
86'
Manuel Aiello
Deportivo Riestra
🟨
90+9'
Juan Franco
Gimnasia M.
VAR
90+7'
Antony Alonso
Deportivo Riestra

Gimnasia M. vs Deportivo Riestra Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 78%
Odds 2.33
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.4%
Odds 2.38
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 3.17
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
78%
2.33 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.4%
2.38 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
3.17 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
73.3%
1.41 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.60 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Gimnasia M. Win 78%
Draw 5%
Deportivo Riestra Win 17.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gimnasia M.0.99
Deportivo Riestra0.83
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gimnasia M. Gimnasia M.
WWDLW
28 GF / 31 GA
Deportivo Riestra Deportivo Riestra
WLDWL
17 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
0.59
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
11
BTTS Yes
9
10
Over 2.5
3
3.92
Shots on Goal
3.52

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gimnasia M. Gimnasia M. 26 matches
Deportivo Riestra Deportivo Riestra 29 matches
Gimnasia M. Statistic Deportivo Riestra
10 Wins 4
6 Draws 14
10 Losses 11
28 Goals For 17
31 Goals Against 25
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 0.59
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
11 BTTS Yes 9
15 Over 1.5 16
10 Over 2.5 3
6 Over 3.5 0
8 Clean Sheets 10
9 Failed To Score 16
3.92 Shots On Goal 3.52
11.72 Total Shots 10.4
3.8 Corners 3.88
44.8% Ball Possession 36.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Deportivo Riestra. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gimnasia M. expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Deportivo Riestra in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportivo Riestra having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Gimnasia M. Analysis

From their first 16 matches, Gimnasia M. have collected 19 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. The record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 14:22 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Módica (8 goals), F. Lencioni (2 goals), E. Fernández (2 goals), with creative support from F. Lencioni (3 assists), I. Sabatini (2 assists), T. O'Connor (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Deportivo Riestra Analysis

Deportivo Riestra sit 15 with 11 points after 16 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 1 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 5:12, reflects poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their threat comes through Antony Daniel Alonso Espinoza (3 goals), A. Díaz (2 goals), M. Bracamonte (1 goals), with creative support from Antony Daniel Alonso Espinoza (1 assists), M. Bracamonte (1 assists), N. Sansotre (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Gimnasia M. won 1 times, Deportivo Riestra won 0 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:2 from Gimnasia M.'s perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95%)
Predicted formations: Gimnasia M. 4-2-3-1 / Deportivo Riestra 5-3-2
H2H summary: Gimnasia M. wins 1, draws 5, Deportivo Riestra wins 0

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L W L D
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W W W D W
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D W D W D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L L W L D
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
L W D W L
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
D W W W L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
L L D W L
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L L L W W
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
W W W L W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W D W L W
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L D L D W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
D L L D L
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
D D L L D
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D W D D D
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
D D L D D
Knockout Phase