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29.07.2026 22:15
Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo
Referee: Leandro Rey Hilfer, Argentina
Gimnasia L.P.
Match Timeline
River Plate
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
M. Arambarri ↔ Fausto Vera
River Plate
🟨
56'
Lucas Silva
River Plate
🔄
61'
L. Beltran ↔ R. Borre
River Plate
🔄
61'
M. Acuna ↔ F. Gonzalez
River Plate
🔄
65'
M. Seoane ↔ A. Max
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
65'
J. Merlo ↔ M. Zalazar
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
71'
A. Correa ↔ F. Colidio
River Plate
🔄
75'
R. Giampaoli ↔ J. Cortazzo
Gimnasia L.P.
🟨
79'
Nicolás Otamendi
River Plate
⚽
80'
A. Steimbach · Assist: M. Zalazar
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
82'
L. Silva ↔ L. Pereyra
River Plate
🔄
83'
N. Fernandez ↔ N. Schelotto
Gimnasia L.P.
🟨
86'
Maximiliano Zalazar
Gimnasia L.P.

Gimnasia L.P. vs River Plate Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 49.4%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
49.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Gimnasia L.P. Win 35.6%
Draw 15%
River Plate Win 49.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gimnasia L.P.1.19
River Plate1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gimnasia L.P. Gimnasia L.P.
WWDLW
32 GF / 26 GA
River Plate River Plate
WLDWL
33 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.32
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
11
BTTS Yes
9
12
Over 2.5
8
3.74
Shots on Goal
5.52

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gimnasia L.P. Gimnasia L.P. 23 matches
River Plate River Plate 25 matches
Gimnasia L.P. Statistic River Plate
12 Wins 13
3 Draws 4
8 Losses 8
32 Goals For 33
26 Goals Against 22
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
11 BTTS Yes 9
17 Over 1.5 15
12 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 11
6 Failed To Score 6
3.74 Shots On Goal 5.52
10.84 Total Shots 16.57
3.95 Corners 5.62
46.1% Ball Possession 65.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights River Plate's more proactive style and Gimnasia L.P.'s more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring River Plate. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gimnasia L.P. expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and River Plate in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward River Plate having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Gimnasia L.P. come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Gimnasia L.P. Analysis

So far, Gimnasia L.P. have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 26 points from 16 matches. The record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 19:19 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Torres (7 goals), N. Schelotto (4 goals), A. Auzmendi (2 goals), with creative support from Alexis Steimbach (4 assists), A. Auzmendi (2 assists), Nacho Fernández (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

River Plate Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 29 points from 16 games, River Plate bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 22:12, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through F. Colidio (5 goals), S. Driussi (5 goals), G. Montiel (4 goals), with creative support from F. Colidio (3 assists), J. Quintero (3 assists), A. Moreno (3 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gimnasia L.P. won 2 times, River Plate won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:29 from Gimnasia L.P.'s perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85%)
Predicted formations: Gimnasia L.P. 4-3-1-2 / River Plate 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Gimnasia L.P. wins 2, draws 3, River Plate wins 10

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
D W W L W
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
W L W W W
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
W L D D W
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
D W W D L
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W W D D D
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
D D D D W
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
L W W W D
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
W W L L L
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
W W L D D
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
L L L L L
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
W L D W L
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
W D D D L
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
D L L L W
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
L L W L W
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
L L L L L
Knockout Phase