BELGIUM JUPILER PRO LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Cegeka Arena
Referee: N. Laforge
Genk
Match Timeline
Charleroi
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
13'
E. Camara · Assist: A. Colassin
Charleroi
🟨
36'
Cheick Keita
Charleroi
🔄
63'
Y. Medina ↔ J. Kayembe
Genk
🔄
63'
A. Bibout ↔ R. Mirisola
Genk
🔄
63'
N. Adedeji-Sternberg ↔ A. Yokoyama
Genk
🔄
63'
A. Colassin ↔ A. Scheidler
Charleroi
🔄
63'
P. Pflucke ↔ J. Romsaas
Charleroi
🔄
66'
A. Boukamir ↔ Y. Khalifi
Charleroi
🟨
72'
Ibrahima Sory Bangoura
Genk
🔄
81'
A. Bernier ↔ F. Szymczak
Charleroi
🔄
81'
L. Blum ↔ M. Boukamir
Charleroi
🔄
83'
J. Ito ↔ J. Erabi
Genk
🔄
83'
I. Bangoura ↔ J. Steuckers
Genk
86'
M. Nzita
Genk

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 71.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
71.5%
-
Probability Distribution
Genk Win 62.7%
Draw 11.7%
Charleroi Win 25.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Genk1.52
Charleroi1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Genk Genk
WWDLW
75 GF / 68 GA
Charleroi Charleroi
WLDWL
42 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
1.2
1.45
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
32
BTTS Yes
20
29
Over 2.5
17
5.62
Shots on Goal
4.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Genk Genk 47 matches
Charleroi Charleroi 35 matches
Genk Statistic Charleroi
21 Wins 10
12 Draws 8
14 Losses 17
75 Goals For 42
68 Goals Against 49
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
1.45 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
32 BTTS Yes 20
37 Over 1.5 27
29 Over 2.5 17
11 Over 3.5 9
9 Clean Sheets 8
8 Failed To Score 9
5.62 Shots On Goal 4.17
14.91 Total Shots 12.23
5.04 Corners 5.29
56.5% Ball Possession 46.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Charleroi. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Genk expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Charleroi in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Charleroi having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Charleroi arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Genk Analysis

Genk come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 28 points after 33 matches. The return of 13 wins, 10 draws, and 10 defeats, together with goals at 48:48, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through D. Heymans (10 goals), Z. El Ouahdi (8 goals), Oh Hyeon-Gyu (6 goals), with creative support from K. Karetsas (10 assists), J. Steuckers (6 assists), D. Heymans (4 assists), while their defending has remained quite vulnerable. At home, the split of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

Charleroi Analysis

Charleroi sit 5 with 20 points after 33 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 7 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 40:45 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on P. Guiagon (8 goals), A. Bernier (5 goals), Y. Titraoui (4 goals), with creative support from P. Guiagon (5 assists), Etienne Camara (3 assists), Jakob Napoleon Romsaas (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 5 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Genk won 5 times, Charleroi won 3 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:21 from Genk's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.4%)
Predicted formations: Genk 4-1-4-1 / Charleroi 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Genk wins 5, draws 7, Charleroi wins 3
Stats
Genk Genk
Charleroi Charleroi
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
12
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
2
10 Corner Kicks 1
11 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 1
61% Ball Possession 39%
21 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Goal 5
12 Shots off Goal 5
2 Blocked Shots 2
12 Shots insidebox 9
9 Shots outsidebox 3
4 Goalkeeper Saves 6
513 Total passes 345
438 Passes accurate 267
2.89 expected_goals 1.49
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Genk
Formation
Charleroi
L. Brughmans
L. Brughmans
Z. El Ouahdi
Z. El Ouahdi
M. Sadick
M. Sadick
M. Smets
M. Smets
Y. Medina
Y. Medina
B. Heynen
B. Heynen
I. Bangoura
I. Bangoura
J. Ito
J. Ito
D. Heymans
D. Heymans
N. Adedeji-Sternberg
N. Adedeji-Sternberg
A. Bibout
A. Bibout
M. Kone
M. Kone
L. Blum
L. Blum
A. Ousou
A. Ousou
C. Keita
C. Keita
M. Nzita
M. Nzita
E. Camara
E. Camara
A. Boukamir
A. Boukamir
K. Van Den Kerkhof
K. Van Den Kerkhof
P. Pflucke
P. Pflucke
A. Bernier
A. Bernier
A. Colassin
🎯
A. Colassin
Genk 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
28
L. Brughmans
G
77
Z. El Ouahdi
D
3
M. Sadick
D
6
M. Smets
D
19
Y. Medina
↓ 63'
D
8
B. Heynen
M
21
I. Bangoura
↓ 83' 🟨 72'
M
10
J. Ito
↓ 83'
M
38
D. Heymans
M
32
N. Adedeji-Sternberg
↓ 63'
M
23
A. Bibout
↓ 63'
F
Substitutes
1
H. Van Crombrugge
G
18
J. Kayembe
↑ 63'
D
14
Y. Sor
F
24
N. Sattlberger
M
29
R. Mirisola
↑ 63'
F
44
J. Kongolo
D
99
J. Erabi
↑ 83'
F
7
J. Steuckers
↑ 83'
F
30
A. Yokoyama
↑ 63'
F
Charleroi 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
30
M. Kone
G
27
L. Blum
↓ 81'
D
4
A. Ousou
D
95
C. Keita
🟨 36'
D
24
M. Nzita
⚽ 86'
D
5
E. Camara
⚽ 13'
M
56
A. Boukamir
↓ 66'
M
3
K. Van Den Kerkhof
M
14
P. Pflucke
↓ 63'
M
17
A. Bernier
↓ 81'
M
25
A. Colassin
🎯 13' ↓ 63'
F
Substitutes
55
M. Delavallee
21
A. Scheidler
↑ 63'
F
8
J. Romsaas
↑ 63'
M
40
Y. Khalifi
↑ 66'
M
9
F. Szymczak
↑ 81'
F
43
Q. Benaets
F
23
J. Gaudin
D
32
M. Boukamir
↑ 81'
D
45
Y. Cisse
M
Last matches: Genk
31.05.26
Jup
Genk
Gent
0
0
D
23.05.26
Jup
Genk
OH Leuven
2
0
W
19.05.26
Jup
Genk
Antwerp
0
0
D
16.05.26
Jup
Genk
Standard Liege
0
0
D
10.05.26
Jup
Genk
KVC Westerlo
3
0
W
02.05.26
Jup
Genk
Charleroi
0
2
L
25.04.26
Jup
Genk
Standard Liege
1
1
D
18.04.26
Jup
Genk
KVC Westerlo
2
1
W
12.04.26
Jup
Genk
OH Leuven
0
0
D
03.04.26
Jup
Genk
Antwerp
2
1
W
22.03.26
Jup
Genk
RAAL La Louvière
5
5
D
19.03.26
UEF
Genk
SC Freiburg
1
5
L
15.03.26
Jup
Genk
St. Truiden
1
0
W
12.03.26
UEF
Genk
SC Freiburg
1
0
W
07.03.26
Jup
Genk
Union St. Gilloise
1
2
L
01.03.26
Jup
Genk
Gent
3
0
W
26.02.26
UEF
Genk
Dinamo Zagreb
3
3
D
22.02.26
Jup
Genk
Standard Liege
0
3
L
19.02.26
UEF
Genk
Dinamo Zagreb
3
1
W
13.02.26
Jup
Genk
KV Mechelen
3
2
W
Last matches: Charleroi
23.05.26
Jup
Charleroi
Standard Liege
2
0
W
19.05.26
Jup
Charleroi
OH Leuven
1
1
D
16.05.26
Jup
Charleroi
KVC Westerlo
0
1
L
10.05.26
Jup
Charleroi
Antwerp
1
0
W
02.05.26
Jup
Charleroi
Genk
2
0
W
25.04.26
Jup
Charleroi
OH Leuven
2
0
W
18.04.26
Jup
Charleroi
Standard Liege
1
2
L
10.04.26
Jup
Charleroi
Antwerp
2
1
W
05.04.26
Jup
Charleroi
KVC Westerlo
0
2
L
22.03.26
Jup
Charleroi
Zulte Waregem
0
1
L
14.03.26
Jup
Charleroi
OH Leuven
0
2
L
07.03.26
Jup
Charleroi
Dender
2
2
D
01.03.26
Jup
Charleroi
Club Brugge KV
1
2
L
22.02.26
Jup
Charleroi
KVC Westerlo
1
2
L
14.02.26
Jup
Charleroi
Gent
2
3
L
07.02.26
Jup
Charleroi
Cercle Brugge
3
4
L
31.01.26
Jup
Charleroi
St. Truiden
2
0
W
25.01.26
Jup
Charleroi
Antwerp
2
0
W
18.01.26
Jup
Charleroi
Standard Liege
2
0
W
08.01.26
Fri
Charleroi
SC Paderborn 07
2
3
L
H2H: Genk vs Charleroi
02.05.26
H2H
Charleroi
Genk
2
0
L
21.04.26
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
1
1
D
19.12.25
H2H
Charleroi
Genk
2
2
D
17.09.25
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
0
1
L
28.02.25
H2H
Charleroi
Genk
1
1
D
23.11.24
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
3
0
W
06.07.24
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
3
3
D
23.02.24
H2H
Charleroi
Genk
0
1
W
20.08.23
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
0
0
D
23.04.23
H2H
Charleroi
Genk
2
2
D
04.11.22
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
4
1
W
10.05.22
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
3
2
W
06.05.22
H2H
Charleroi
Genk
2
2
D
16.12.21
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
4
2
W
17.10.21
H2H
Charleroi
Genk
2
0
L
Last matches: Genk
19.05.26
Jup
Genk
Antwerp
0
0
D
10.05.26
Jup
Genk
KVC Westerlo
3
0
W
25.04.26
Jup
Genk
Standard Liege
1
1
D
12.04.26
Jup
Genk
OH Leuven
0
0
D
15.03.26
Jup
Genk
St. Truiden
1
0
W
12.03.26
UEF
Genk
SC Freiburg
1
0
W
01.03.26
Jup
Genk
Gent
3
0
W
26.02.26
UEF
Genk
Dinamo Zagreb
3
3
D
22.02.26
Jup
Genk
Standard Liege
0
3
L
08.02.26
Jup
Genk
Anderlecht
2
0
W
29.01.26
UEF
Genk
Malmo FF
2
1
W
25.01.26
Jup
Genk
Cercle Brugge
1
1
D
09.01.26
Fri
Genk
Diosgyori VTK
3
4
L
26.12.25
Jup
Genk
Club Brugge KV
3
5
L
14.12.25
Jup
Genk
KVC Westerlo
1
1
D
30.11.25
Jup
Genk
OH Leuven
2
1
W
27.11.25
UEF
Genk
FC Basel 1893
2
1
W
23.11.25
Jup
Genk
KV Mechelen
0
1
L
26.10.25
Jup
Genk
RAAL La Louvière
1
1
D
23.10.25
UEF
Genk
Real Betis
0
0
D
H2H at home: Genk
21.04.26
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
1
1
D
17.09.25
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
0
1
L
23.11.24
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
3
0
W
06.07.24
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
3
3
D
20.08.23
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
0
0
D
04.11.22
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
4
1
W
10.05.22
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
3
2
W
16.12.21
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
4
2
W
Last matches: Charleroi
23.05.26
Jup
Charleroi
Standard Liege
2
0
W
10.05.26
Jup
Charleroi
Antwerp
1
0
W
25.04.26
Jup
Charleroi
OH Leuven
2
0
W
05.04.26
Jup
Charleroi
KVC Westerlo
0
2
L
22.03.26
Jup
Charleroi
Zulte Waregem
0
1
L
07.03.26
Jup
Charleroi
Dender
2
2
D
22.02.26
Jup
Charleroi
KVC Westerlo
1
2
L
31.01.26
Jup
Charleroi
St. Truiden
2
0
W
25.01.26
Jup
Charleroi
Antwerp
2
0
W
08.01.26
Fri
Charleroi
SC Paderborn 07
2
3
L
26.12.25
Jup
Charleroi
Anderlecht
2
1
W
07.12.25
Jup
Charleroi
KV Mechelen
0
1
L
22.11.25
Jup
Charleroi
Club Brugge KV
0
1
L
31.10.25
Jup
Charleroi
Standard Liege
1
3
L
18.10.25
Jup
Charleroi
Union St. Gilloise
1
3
L
03.10.25
Jup
Charleroi
Gent
1
2
L
17.09.25
Jup
Charleroi
Genk
1
0
W
14.09.25
Jup
Charleroi
Cercle Brugge
3
2
W
10.08.25
Jup
Charleroi
RAAL La Louvière
0
1
L
27.07.25
Jup
Charleroi
OH Leuven
2
2
D
H2H away: Charleroi
21.04.26
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
1
1
D
17.09.25
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
0
1
W
23.11.24
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
3
0
L
06.07.24
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
3
3
D
20.08.23
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
0
0
D
04.11.22
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
4
1
L
10.05.22
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
3
2
L
16.12.21
H2H
Genk
Charleroi
4
2
L

Standings

Pro League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 9 2 50:17 33 66
W D L W L
2 30 20 3 7 59:36 23 63
W D W W W
3 30 18 3 9 47:35 12 57
W L D L W
4 30 13 6 11 49:43 6 45
W L D D D
5 30 12 9 9 39:37 2 45
L D D L W
6 30 12 8 10 43:39 4 44
L W D D L
7
Genk Home
30 11 9 10 46:47 -1 42
L W D D W
8 30 11 7 12 27:35 -8 40
L W D W W
9 30 10 9 11 36:40 -4 39
L L W L D
10 30 9 8 13 31:32 -1 35
W D L L L
11 30 9 7 14 38:42 -4 34
W D L W W
12 30 9 7 14 32:43 -11 34
L D W L D
13 30 8 8 14 38:47 -9 32
W W W W W
14 30 7 10 13 39:47 -8 31
L L W W W
15 30 6 13 11 30:37 -7 31
W L L L L
16 30 3 10 17 24:51 -27 19
D L L W L
Championship round
Qualifying round
Relegation Round