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GEORGIA › EROVNULI LIGA
10.09.2026 17:00
David Petriashvili Stadium
Referee: A. Aptsiauri
Gagra
Match Timeline
Torpedo Kutaisi
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
21'
Z. Tchavtchanidze
Torpedo Kutaisi
🟨
32'
Viktor Bliznichenko
Gagra
🔄
46'
A. Andreychuk ↔ G. Goshteliani
Gagra
🟨
60'
Mateo Stamatov
Torpedo Kutaisi
🔄
64'
D. Deisadze ↔ D. Skorup
Torpedo Kutaisi
🔄
69'
V. Arsic ↔ D. Mujiri
Gagra
🔄
69'
L. Gurchiani ↔ R. Adeyeye
Gagra
🔄
73'
V. Mamuchashvili ↔ G. Gergedava
Torpedo Kutaisi
⚽
74'
G. Goshteliani · Assist: D. Mujiri
Gagra
🔄
80'
M. Stamatov ↔ L. Latsabidze
Torpedo Kutaisi
🔄
83'
V. Bliznichenko ↔ G. Khachidze
Gagra
🟨
85'
augusto
Gagra
🟨
87'
Mate Tsintsadze
Gagra
🟥
87'
Mate Tsintsadze
Gagra
🔄
88'
A. Peikrishvili ↔ I. Skrypnyk
Gagra

Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.1%
Odds 3.43
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 1.66
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.86
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.1%
3.43 ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
1.66 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.86 ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
13.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Gagra Win 60.1%
Draw 5.9%
Torpedo Kutaisi Win 34%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gagra1.17
Torpedo Kutaisi1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gagra Gagra
WWDLW
35 GF / 43 GA
Torpedo Kutaisi Torpedo Kutaisi
WLDWL
44 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.39
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
18
BTTS Yes
17
14
Over 2.5
16
3.79
Shots on Goal
3.92

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gagra Gagra 31 matches
Torpedo Kutaisi Torpedo Kutaisi 31 matches
Gagra Statistic Torpedo Kutaisi
8 Wins 11
12 Draws 9
11 Losses 11
35 Goals For 44
43 Goals Against 38
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.39 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
18 BTTS Yes 17
25 Over 1.5 22
14 Over 2.5 16
5 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 7
9 Failed To Score 9
3.79 Shots On Goal 3.92
2.79 Total Shots 3.83
4.17 Corners 4.58
44.9% Ball Possession 55.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Torpedo Kutaisi's more proactive style and Gagra's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Torpedo Kutaisi. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Torpedo Kutaisi having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Gagra Analysis

Gagra sit 8 with 27 points after 23 league matches. The record of 6 wins, 9 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 23:30 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Torpedo Kutaisi Analysis

From their first 23 matches, Torpedo Kutaisi have collected 31 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 36:27 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gagra won 2 times, Torpedo Kutaisi won 11 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:28 from Gagra's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.1%)
Predicted formations: Gagra 4-1-4-1 / Torpedo Kutaisi 4-4-2
H2H summary: Gagra wins 2, draws 2, Torpedo Kutaisi wins 11

Standings

Umaglesi Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 13 9 5 45:30 15 48
W W W D D
2 27 13 8 6 46:36 10 47
W D W W W
3 27 13 7 7 32:23 9 46
L W D L D
4 27 14 4 9 38:30 8 46
L W W W L
5 27 12 4 11 38:30 8 40
W L D W W
6 27 9 9 9 43:34 9 36
L W D D L
7 27 9 5 13 38:52 -14 32
L L L L D
8
Gagra Home
27 6 11 10 25:37 -12 29
D L D L W
9 27 5 10 12 34:43 -9 25
L L D D L
10 27 2 11 14 20:44 -24 17
D L D D W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2