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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
27.09.2026 23:05
Estadio Metropolitano de Techo
Referee: Luis Matorel Bolivar, Colombia
Fortaleza FC
Match Timeline
Deportes Tolima
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
Yesid Díaz
Fortaleza FC
🟨
10'
Jordan Garcia
Fortaleza FC
🟨
27'
Homer Martinez
Deportes Tolima
⚽
30'
Yesid Díaz
Deportes Tolima
🟨
33'
Brandon Mejía
Fortaleza FC
🔄
45'
Homer Martinez ↔ Sebastian Guzman
Deportes Tolima
🔄
45'
Cristian Arrieta ↔ Brayan Rovira
Deportes Tolima
🔄
45'
Junior Hernandez ↔ Jorge Hurtado
Deportes Tolima
🟨
47'
Jan Angulo
Deportes Tolima
⚽
51'
Juan Sebastian Herrera · Assist: Jordan Garcia
Fortaleza FC
🟨
56'
Ever Valencia
Deportes Tolima
🔄
64'
Mariano Vázquez ↔ Jhoiner Salas
Fortaleza FC
🔄
64'
Santiago Vivas Vélez ↔ Italo Montano Cortes
Fortaleza FC
🔄
68'
S. Aguayo ↔ Luis Sanchez
Deportes Tolima
🔄
68'
Ever Valencia ↔ Luis Sandoval
Deportes Tolima
🔄
71'
Jordan Garcia ↔ Leonardo Pico
Fortaleza FC
⚽
73'
Jorge Hurtado · Assist: Luis Sandoval
Deportes Tolima
🟨
76'
Italo Montano Cortes
Fortaleza FC
🟨
77'
Shean Barbosa
Deportes Tolima
🔄
80'
Brandón Andrés Mejía Fajardo ↔ Franco Pulicastro
Fortaleza FC
🔄
80'
Santiago Cuero ↔ Julio Sinisterra
Fortaleza FC
🟨
84'
Sebastian Guzman
Deportes Tolima
🟥
90+2'
Teun Wilke
Fortaleza FC
🟨
90+5'
Luis Sandoval
Deportes Tolima
⚽
90+6'
Sebastian Navarro
Fortaleza FC

Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 65%
Odds 1.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.8%
Odds 2.20
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
65%
1.30 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.8%
2.20 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.1%
1.42 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Fortaleza FC Win 35%
Draw 19.1%
Deportes Tolima Win 45.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fortaleza FC1.08
Deportes Tolima1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC
WWDLW
33 GF / 43 GA
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
WLDWL
55 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
0.98
21
BTTS Yes
19
15
Over 2.5
18
3.62
Shots on Goal
4.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 29 matches
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 45 matches
Fortaleza FC Statistic Deportes Tolima
6 Wins 19
12 Draws 11
11 Losses 15
33 Goals For 55
43 Goals Against 44
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 0.98
21 BTTS Yes 19
24 Over 1.5 29
15 Over 2.5 18
7 Over 3.5 9
6 Clean Sheets 16
5 Failed To Score 15
3.62 Shots On Goal 4.67
11.41 Total Shots 13.04
4.1 Corners 4.91
52.4% Ball Possession 56.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Deportes Tolima's more proactive style and Fortaleza FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Deportes Tolima. Deportes Tolima carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 31 points while Fortaleza FC sit 15 on 22, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fortaleza FC expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Deportes Tolima in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportes Tolima having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Fortaleza FC Analysis

Fortaleza FC sit 15 with 22 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 7 defeats with a 22:27 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Andrés Arroyo (9 goals), Italo Montaño Cortes (3 goals), Richardson Rivas (3 goals), with creative support from Andrés Arroyo (4 assists), S. Navarro (3 assists), Italo Montaño Cortes (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Deportes Tolima Analysis

So far, Deportes Tolima have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 31 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, while the 27:17 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Luis Sandoval (8 goals), Juan Torres (6 goals), A. Parra (5 goals), with creative support from Juan Torres (4 assists), S. Guzmán (4 assists), Luis Sandoval (3 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Fortaleza FC won 2 times, Deportes Tolima won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:9 from Fortaleza FC's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.78 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.9%)
Predicted formations: Fortaleza FC 4-3-3 / Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Fortaleza FC wins 2, draws 4, Deportes Tolima wins 3

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W D L W W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L W W L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W W D L W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
D L L W L
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D D D L L
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W L W W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D L L W
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W W W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D W W D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L D L W D
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
W L L D L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W W W D W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L W L L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L L L D D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L W L W W
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
D W L L W
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W L L D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L L D D L
Post season qualification