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BRAZIL › SERIE B
28.06.2026 21:30
Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo
Referee: Anderson Daronco, Brazil
Fortaleza EC
Match Timeline
Sport Recife
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
28'
Rodrigo · Assist: Luan Freitas
Fortaleza EC
🔄
45'
Ze Lucas ↔ Pedro Martins
Sport Recife
🟨
57'
Vitinho
Fortaleza EC
🟨
57'
Felipinho
Sport Recife
🟨
58'
Juan Miritello
Fortaleza EC
🟨
58'
Marcelo Benevenuto
Sport Recife
🔄
62'
Vitinho ↔ Welliton
Fortaleza EC
⚽
69'
Pedro Perotti
Sport Recife
🔄
72'
Rodrigo ↔ Lucas Crispim
Fortaleza EC
🟨
73'
Maurício Júnior
Fortaleza EC
🔄
73'
Lucas Sasha ↔ Ryan
Fortaleza EC
🔄
76'
Chrystian Barletta ↔ Marlon Douglas
Sport Recife
🔄
76'
Biel Fonseca ↔ Ze Gabriel
Sport Recife
🔄
83'
Pierre ↔ Lucca Prior
Fortaleza EC
🔄
83'
E. Britez ↔ Lucas Gazal
Fortaleza EC
🔄
86'
Fabio Matheus ↔ Yago Felipe
Sport Recife
🔄
86'
Iury Castilho ↔ Clayson
Sport Recife
⚽
90'
Welliton · Assist: J. B. Miritello
Fortaleza EC

Fortaleza EC vs Sport Recife Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
78.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Fortaleza EC Win 45.9%
Draw 11.7%
Sport Recife Win 42.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fortaleza EC0.94
Sport Recife1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WWDLW
16 GF / 15 GA
Sport Recife Sport Recife
WLDWL
17 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.07
Average Goals Conceded
0.64
5
BTTS Yes
7
7
Over 2.5
4
4.14
Shots on Goal
4.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 14 matches
Sport Recife Sport Recife 14 matches
Fortaleza EC Statistic Sport Recife
6 Wins 6
4 Draws 7
4 Losses 1
16 Goals For 17
15 Goals Against 9
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.07 Avg Goals Conceded 0.64
5 BTTS Yes 7
8 Over 1.5 9
7 Over 2.5 4
3 Over 3.5 2
6 Clean Sheets 7
6 Failed To Score 3
4.14 Shots On Goal 4.14
13.86 Total Shots 13.21
4.86 Corners 4.93
44.5% Ball Possession 53.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sport Recife. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Fortaleza EC have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fortaleza EC expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Sport Recife in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sport Recife having the stronger overall control.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

Fortaleza EC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 4 with 21 points from 13 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 15:14 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. B. Miritello (3 goals), Vitinho (3 goals), Luiz Fernando (2 goals), with creative support from Maílton (1 assists), Ruan Carvalho (1 assists), Emanuel Brítez (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Sport Recife Analysis

Sport Recife arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 25 points after 14 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 17:9 reflects mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Their attacking weight is carried by Chrystian Barletta (6 goals), Pedro Perotti (6 goals), Augusto (1 goals), with creative support from Chrystian Barletta (3 assists), Felipinho (2 assists), de Pena Carlos (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fortaleza EC won 10 times, Sport Recife won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:7 from Fortaleza EC's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.3%)
Predicted formations: Fortaleza EC 5-4-1 / Sport Recife 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Fortaleza EC wins 10, draws 3, Sport Recife wins 2

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 18 7 8 46:31 15 61
W D W W W
2 33 17 9 7 59:28 31 60
W W W D L
3 33 17 9 7 39:21 18 60
D W W W L
4 33 15 12 6 39:29 10 57
D W D D W
5 33 16 8 9 34:28 6 56
W L W W L
6 33 14 11 8 41:31 10 53
D L W W L
7 33 15 7 11 51:47 4 52
D W L W L
8 33 13 12 8 45:35 10 51
D W W L W
9 33 14 6 13 34:40 -6 48
W W L L W
10 33 13 9 11 44:45 -1 48
L L L D W
11 33 11 14 8 32:26 6 47
L D W L W
12 33 12 10 11 46:36 10 46
D L W D W
13 33 11 9 13 39:42 -3 42
L L D W L
14 33 11 9 13 35:40 -5 42
L W W D W
15 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
16 33 11 8 14 37:38 -1 41
W W L W D
17 33 10 6 17 33:43 -10 36
W W L L L
18 32 7 7 18 40:47 -7 28
L L L L W
19 33 4 5 24 21:54 -33 17
L L L L L
20 33 3 4 26 18:73 -55 13
L L L L W
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