BRAZIL › SERIE B
03.10.2026 00:35
Estadio Castelão
Referee: Kleber Ariel Goncalves da Silva
Fortaleza EC
Match Timeline
Nautico Recife
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
5'
Vinicius · Assist: Luan Sales
Nautico Recife
🟨
31'
Lucas Xavier Gazal
Fortaleza EC
⚽
43'
Luiz Fernando · Assist: Maílton
Fortaleza EC
🟨
45+4'
Samuel
Nautico Recife
🔄
45'
Pedro Henrique ↔ Rodrigo Henrique Santos De Souza
Fortaleza EC
🟨
51'
Luan Sales
Nautico Recife
🔄
58'
Derek Freitas Ribeiro ↔ Benjamín Borasi
Nautico Recife
🔄
58'
Samuel ↔ Luiz Felipe
Nautico Recife
🔄
71'
Nathan Fogaça ↔ Juan Camilo Cantillo
Fortaleza EC
🔄
71'
Lucas Sasha ↔ Rodrigo Oliveira dos Santos
Fortaleza EC
🔄
71'
Luan Sales ↔ Reginaldo
Nautico Recife
🔄
76'
Vitor Ferreira ↔ Welliton Silva de Azevedo Matheus
Fortaleza EC
🔄
85'
Léo Índio ↔ Wanderson Camelo Viana
Nautico Recife
🔄
85'
Todinho ↔ Paulo Sérgio
Nautico Recife
🔄
85'
Luiz Fernando ↔ Paulo Baya
Fortaleza EC
🟨
90+4'
Wenderson da Silva Costa Ferreira
Nautico Recife

Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.6%
Odds 1.55
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.98
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.6%
1.55 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
2.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.98 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.12 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.62 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Fortaleza EC Win 76.6%
Draw 5.5%
Nautico Recife Win 17.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fortaleza EC1.19
Nautico Recife1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
WWDLW
35 GF / 26 GA
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WLDWL
38 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
1.27
0.87
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
13
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
13
4.17
Shots on Goal
4.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC 30 matches
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 30 matches
Fortaleza EC Statistic Nautico Recife
14 Wins 11
10 Draws 8
6 Losses 11
35 Goals For 38
26 Goals Against 37
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
0.87 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
13 BTTS Yes 14
18 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 13
4 Over 3.5 6
13 Clean Sheets 8
8 Failed To Score 10
4.17 Shots On Goal 4.67
13.9 Total Shots 16.17
5.27 Corners 6.07
48% Ball Possession 57.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Fortaleza EC's more proactive style and Nautico Recife's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Fortaleza EC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 51 points compared to Nautico Recife in 14 on 38, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nautico Recife. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fortaleza EC expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Nautico Recife in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nautico Recife having the stronger overall control.

Fortaleza EC Analysis

Fortaleza EC come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 51 points after 29 matches. With 14 wins, 9 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 33:24, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Vitinho (6 goals), Maílton (4 goals), J. Miritello (3 goals), with creative support from Mauricio Junior (2 assists), Maílton (1 assists), Lucas Gazal (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 9 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Nautico Recife Analysis

With 38 points from 29 games and a place of 14, Nautico Recife still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 8 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 35:36 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Vinícius (5 goals), Kaua Almeida da Costa (3 goals), Júnior Todinho (3 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (3 assists), Jean Carlos (2 assists), Wenderson (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Fortaleza EC won 4 times, Nautico Recife won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:3 from Fortaleza EC's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Fortaleza EC 4-3-3 / Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Fortaleza EC wins 4, draws 1, Nautico Recife wins 0

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 17 6 8 44:31 13 57
W W W D W
2 31 16 8 7 35:19 16 56
W W L L W
3 31 15 9 7 52:27 25 54
W D L D W
4 31 15 8 8 33:27 6 53
W W L L L
5 31 14 11 6 36:27 9 53
D D W D W
6 31 14 10 7 39:27 12 52
W W L W W
7 31 14 6 11 46:44 2 48
L W L W L
8 31 13 9 9 43:41 2 48
L D W D W
9 31 12 11 8 42:33 9 47
W L W L W
10 31 11 13 7 32:25 7 46
W L W D W
11 31 12 9 10 43:32 11 45
W D W W L
12 31 12 6 13 30:39 -9 42
L L W W L
13 31 11 9 11 39:38 1 42
D W L D L
14 31 10 12 9 37:35 2 42
L D D W L
15 31 10 9 12 34:39 -5 39
W D W D L
16 31 9 8 14 34:37 -3 35
L W D L L
17 31 8 6 17 30:42 -12 30
L L L D L
18 31 7 7 17 39:45 -6 28
L L L W W
19 31 4 5 22 21:52 -31 17
L L L L W
20 31 3 4 24 17:66 -49 13
L L W L L
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