Login Register

Fluminense vs Palmeiras Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Fluminense Win 59.8%
Draw 9.8%
Palmeiras Win 30.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fluminense1.26
Palmeiras1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fluminense Fluminense
WWDLW
63 GF / 47 GA
Palmeiras Palmeiras
WLDWL
62 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.58
Average Goals Scored
1.63
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
0.79
28
BTTS Yes
22
20
Over 2.5
17
5.29
Shots on Goal
5.13

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fluminense Fluminense 40 matches
Palmeiras Palmeiras 38 matches
Fluminense Statistic Palmeiras
18 Wins 21
13 Draws 12
9 Losses 5
63 Goals For 62
47 Goals Against 30
1.58 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 0.79
28 BTTS Yes 22
33 Over 1.5 26
20 Over 2.5 17
11 Over 3.5 9
9 Clean Sheets 15
6 Failed To Score 5
5.29 Shots On Goal 5.13
14.08 Total Shots 15.82
4.92 Corners 6.13
59% Ball Possession 53.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between Palmeiras's more proactive style and Fluminense's more cautious structure, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Palmeiras. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fluminense expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Palmeiras in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Palmeiras having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Fluminense Analysis

Fluminense enter this tie with a season profile built on 8 points from 6 matches, placing them 2 in their league. The return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 7:7 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by A. Canobbio (2 goals), John Kennedy (2 goals), Hulk (1 goals), with creative support from Hulk (2 assists), J. Savarino (1 assists), Martinelli (1 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around a more cautious and defensive approach.

Palmeiras Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Palmeiras arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 11 points after 6 matches. With 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses plus a goal ratio of 10:5, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on J. López (3 goals), J. Arias (3 goals), Ramón Sosa (2 goals), with creative support from J. López (4 assists), J. Arias (2 assists), Allan (2 assists), while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.3%)
Predicted formations: Fluminense 4-2-3-1 / Palmeiras 3-4-2-1

Standings

Group C
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 15:6 9 16
W W D W W
2 6 2 2 2 7:7 0 8
W W D L L
3 6 1 2 3 6:8 -2 5
L L D W D
4 6 0 3 3 6:13 -7 3
L L D L D
Copa Sudamericana 1/16-finals