Login Register
BRAZIL › SERIE A
26.07.2026 21:30
Estádio do Maracanã
Referee: Anderson Daronco, Brazil
Flamengo
Match Timeline
Sao Paulo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
57'
Léo Pereira · Assist: Jorginho
Flamengo
🔄
58'
Lorran ↔ Giorgian de Arrascaeta
Flamengo
🟨
63'
Alex Sandro
Flamengo
🔄
66'
Danielzinho ↔ Victor Sá
Sao Paulo
🔄
66'
Artur ↔ Ferreirinha
Sao Paulo
🟨
69'
Wendell
Sao Paulo
⚽
70'
Jonathan Calleri · Assist: Luis Osorio
Sao Paulo
🔄
79'
Bruno Henrique ↔ Everton
Flamengo
🔄
87'
Erick Pulgar ↔ Evertton Araujo
Flamengo
🔄
87'
Pedro ↔ Wallace Yan
Flamengo
🟨
88'
Jonathan Calleri
Sao Paulo
VAR
90+3'
Samuel Lino
Flamengo
🟨
90+11'
Lucas Ramon
Sao Paulo
🔄
90'
Wendell ↔ Sabino
Sao Paulo
🔄
90'
Luciano ↔ André Silva
Sao Paulo

Flamengo vs Sao Paulo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Flamengo Win 88%
Draw 6%
Sao Paulo Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Flamengo1.71
Sao Paulo1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Flamengo Flamengo
WWDLW
56 GF / 23 GA
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
WLDWL
24 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
2.07
Average Goals Scored
1.26
0.85
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
13
BTTS Yes
11
17
Over 2.5
8
5.83
Shots on Goal
4.05

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Flamengo Flamengo 27 matches
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 19 matches
Flamengo Statistic Sao Paulo
18 Wins 7
6 Draws 4
3 Losses 8
56 Goals For 24
23 Goals Against 22
2.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
0.85 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
13 BTTS Yes 11
25 Over 1.5 14
17 Over 2.5 8
7 Over 3.5 3
12 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 4
5.83 Shots On Goal 4.05
15.39 Total Shots 12.16
4.57 Corners 6.58
56% Ball Possession 53.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Sao Paulo having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Sao Paulo. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Sao Paulo arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Flamengo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 34 points compared to Sao Paulo in 8 on 25, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Flamengo Analysis

Flamengo arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 34 points after 17 matches. The record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 31:16 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Pedro (10 goals), Samuel Lino (4 goals), Giorgian De Arrascaeta (3 goals), with creative support from Samuel Lino (6 assists), Pedro (4 assists), Guillermo Varela (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Sao Paulo Analysis

With 25 points from 18 games and a place of 8, Sao Paulo still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 23:20 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Jonathan Calleri (5 goals), Luciano (5 goals), Ferreirinha (4 goals), with creative support from Wendell (3 assists), Jonathan Calleri (1 assists), Luciano (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Flamengo won 6 times, Sao Paulo won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:13 from Flamengo's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Flamengo 4-2-3-1 / Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Flamengo 4, Sao Paulo 5
H2H summary: Flamengo wins 6, draws 5, Sao Paulo wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 18 7 4 57:25 32 61
D W W W W
2 29 17 9 3 48:21 27 60
W D W D D
3 29 14 9 6 48:36 12 51
W W L W D
4 29 14 8 7 45:34 11 50
D W D L D
5 29 14 6 9 44:40 4 48
W W L W L
6 29 12 10 7 43:36 7 46
L L W W W
7 29 12 8 9 39:34 5 44
D W D W L
8 29 11 9 9 45:43 2 42
D W W W W
9 29 10 8 11 37:47 -10 38
L L D L W
10 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
11 29 10 6 13 33:34 -1 36
L L W L W
12 29 10 6 13 32:42 -10 36
W L D W L
13 29 9 8 12 42:47 -5 35
L L W D D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 29 8 9 12 34:43 -9 33
D W D W L
16 29 8 8 13 30:34 -4 32
L L L L L
17 29 7 10 12 32:37 -5 31
W L W L L
18 29 7 9 13 31:39 -8 30
D D L L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 28 3 9 16 29:57 -28 18
L D L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B