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LATVIA › VIRSLIGA
17.05.2026 16:00
Daugavas stadions
Referee: S. Vasjkovs
FK Liepaja
Match Timeline
BFC Daugavpils
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
44'
C. Taty
BFC Daugavpils
⚽
45'
Fellipe Vieira
FK Liepaja
⚽
54'
K. Leidsman · Assist: C. Amatkarijo
FK Liepaja
⚽
58'
R. Ndjiki · Assist: J. Yakubu
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
69'
A. Traore ↔ D. Gueye
FK Liepaja
🔄
70'
Fellipe Vieira ↔ A. Ogunniyi
FK Liepaja
🔄
74'
A. Traore ↔ E. Pinaskins
BFC Daugavpils
🟨
78'
W. Mukwelle
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
81'
C. Amatkarijo ↔ A. Haidara
FK Liepaja
🟨
87'
D. Gueye
FK Liepaja

FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 81.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
81.3%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
26%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FK Liepaja Win 36.3%
Draw 18.8%
BFC Daugavpils Win 45%
Expected Goals (xG)
FK Liepaja1.61
BFC Daugavpils1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja
WWDLW
31 GF / 33 GA
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
WLDWL
21 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.55
Average Goals Scored
1.05
1.65
Average Goals Conceded
1.7
13
BTTS Yes
10
12
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FK Liepaja FK Liepaja 20 matches
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 20 matches
FK Liepaja Statistic BFC Daugavpils
8 Wins 6
4 Draws 2
8 Losses 12
31 Goals For 21
33 Goals Against 34
1.55 Avg Goals Scored 1.05
1.65 Avg Goals Conceded 1.7
13 BTTS Yes 10
16 Over 1.5 12
12 Over 2.5 9
7 Over 3.5 6
1 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward BFC Daugavpils. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward BFC Daugavpils having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

FK Liepaja Analysis

FK Liepaja sit 8 with 12 points after 11 league matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 10:17 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by D. Gueye (2 goals), D. Patijcuks (2 goals), I. Patrikejevs (2 goals), with creative support from A. Korobenko (1 assists), A. Ogunniyi (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

BFC Daugavpils Analysis

Placed 5 with 14 points from 11 outings, BFC Daugavpils continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 14:18 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Garzha (4 goals), J. Yakubu (4 goals), R. Ndjiki (3 goals), with creative support from R. Ndjiki (3 assists), Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand (3 assists), A. Garzha (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FK Liepaja won 7 times, BFC Daugavpils won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:22 from FK Liepaja's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.3%)
Predicted formations: FK Liepaja 4-2-3-1 / BFC Daugavpils 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FK Liepaja wins 7, draws 4, BFC Daugavpils wins 4

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 24 5 2 75:24 51 77
W D W D W
2 32 23 7 2 88:30 58 76
W W W D D
3 32 19 7 6 52:32 20 64
W D W D W
4 32 12 7 13 43:46 -3 43
L D D D W
5 32 11 9 12 37:36 1 42
W D L D L
6 31 11 5 15 31:41 -10 38
W L L W W
7 32 8 8 16 34:53 -19 32
L L D L W
8 32 5 11 16 22:54 -32 26
L D D L W
9 32 5 9 18 44:63 -19 24
L D L W L
10 32 4 6 22 31:78 -47 18
L W L D L