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NETHERLANDS › EREDIVISIE
10.10.2026 16:45
De Kuip

Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 43.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
43.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Feyenoord Win 39.9%
Draw 16.3%
AZ Alkmaar Win 43.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Feyenoord2.37
AZ Alkmaar1.82
Recent Form (Last 5)
Feyenoord Feyenoord
WWDLW
42 GF / 16 GA
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
WLDWL
31 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
3.23
Average Goals Scored
2.21
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
9
BTTS Yes
8
12
Over 2.5
7
7.75
Shots on Goal
6.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Feyenoord Feyenoord 13 matches
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 14 matches
Feyenoord Statistic AZ Alkmaar
10 Wins 9
2 Draws 3
1 Losses 2
42 Goals For 31
16 Goals Against 15
3.23 Avg Goals Scored 2.21
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
9 BTTS Yes 8
12 Over 1.5 11
12 Over 2.5 7
10 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 4
0 Failed To Score 2
7.75 Shots On Goal 6.88
20 Total Shots 18.5
5.5 Corners 8.13
52.6% Ball Possession 58.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Feyenoord expected to line up in 4-3-3 and AZ Alkmaar in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AZ Alkmaar having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors AZ Alkmaar. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Feyenoord Analysis

Feyenoord approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 17 points after 7 outings. With 5 wins, 2 draws, and 0 defeats plus a goal balance of 25:7, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by G. Zechiël (5 goals), A. Hadj-Moussa (5 goals), L. Valente (4 goals), with creative support from G. Zechiël (4 assists), G. Read (4 assists), A. Hadj-Moussa (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

AZ Alkmaar Analysis

AZ Alkmaar approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 19 points after 7 outings. They have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, with a 18:6 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on R. Daal (4 goals), M. Meerdink (3 goals), J. Hornkamp (2 goals), with creative support from M. Chávez (3 assists), M. Meerdink (2 assists), C. Stengs (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Feyenoord won 8 times, AZ Alkmaar won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:20 from Feyenoord's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.7%)
Predicted formations: Feyenoord 4-3-3 / AZ Alkmaar 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Feyenoord wins 8, draws 2, AZ Alkmaar wins 4

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 6 1 0 18:6 12 19
W D W W W
2 7 5 2 0 25:7 18 17
W W W D W
3 7 5 1 1 24:10 14 16
L W W W W
4 7 5 1 1 15:7 8 16
W W W D W
5 7 4 2 1 21:9 12 14
D W W L W
6 7 4 1 2 13:14 -1 13
W L W W L
7 7 3 2 2 15:9 6 11
D L D W W
8 7 3 2 2 15:13 2 11
W D D L L
9 7 2 4 1 16:14 2 10
D D D L W
10 7 2 3 2 11:9 2 9
W D L D L
11 7 2 2 3 12:13 -1 8
D L D L W
12 7 1 2 4 10:17 -7 5
L L D L D
13 7 1 2 4 5:12 -7 5
L D L D L
14 7 1 2 4 10:19 -9 5
D W D L L
15 7 1 2 4 11:24 -13 5
L W D L D
16 7 1 1 5 6:20 -14 4
L L D L W
17 7 0 2 5 7:17 -10 2
D L L D L
18 7 0 2 5 6:20 -14 2
L L D L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie