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BRAZIL › SERIE D
26.07.2026 20:00
Estadio Presidente Vargas
Ferroviario
Match Timeline
Goiatuba EC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
56'
Vini Hora
Goiatuba EC
⚽
77'
Fernando Portel
Ferroviario
⚽
83'
Roger Henrique
Goiatuba EC

Ferroviario vs Goiatuba EC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Ferroviario Win 67%
Draw 8.7%
Goiatuba EC Win 24.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ferroviario1.12
Goiatuba EC1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ferroviario Ferroviario
WWDLW
22 GF / 12 GA
Goiatuba EC Goiatuba EC
WLDWL
19 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
1.27
0.8
Average Goals Conceded
0.6
7
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ferroviario Ferroviario 15 matches
Goiatuba EC Goiatuba EC 15 matches
Ferroviario Statistic Goiatuba EC
8 Wins 8
5 Draws 5
2 Losses 2
22 Goals For 19
12 Goals Against 9
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
0.8 Avg Goals Conceded 0.6
7 BTTS Yes 5
12 Over 1.5 7
5 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 2
6 Clean Sheets 8
3 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Goiatuba EC have the edge after taking the first leg 3-0, leaving Ferroviario needing to respond to a 3-goal deficit. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Goiatuba EC. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Goiatuba EC having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Ferroviario Analysis

Ferroviario enter this tie with a season profile built on 21 points from 10 matches, placing them 1 in their league. With 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses plus a goal ratio of 15:7, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on their main attacking players, while defensively they have been very solid. At home, the return of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Goiatuba EC Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Goiatuba EC arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 19 points after 10 matches. The return of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 13:7 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Ferroviario won 0 times, Goiatuba EC won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:5 from Ferroviario's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.3%)
H2H summary: Ferroviario wins 0, draws 0, Goiatuba EC wins 2

Standings

Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)