JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Ajinomoto Stadium
Referee: M. Ueda
FC Tokyo
Match Timeline
Kawasaki Frontale
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
41'
K. Sato
FC Tokyo
🔄
46'
T. Ito ↔ Y. Wakizaka
Kawasaki Frontale
🔄
46'
T. Miyagi ↔ Marcinho
Kawasaki Frontale
56'
L. Nozawa · Assist: T. Nakagawa
FC Tokyo
🔄
57'
S. Kanda ↔ L. Romanic
Kawasaki Frontale
🟨
66'
Erison
Kawasaki Frontale
🔄
68'
K. Tokiwa ↔ K. Hashimoto
FC Tokyo
🔄
68'
K. Sato ↔ F. Yamada
FC Tokyo
🔄
69'
T. Nakagawa ↔ Marcelo Ryan
FC Tokyo
🔄
79'
K. Tachibanada ↔ Y. Yamamoto
Kawasaki Frontale
🔄
83'
L. Nozawa ↔ K. Endo
FC Tokyo
🔄
87'
Erison ↔ R. Osa
Kawasaki Frontale
🟨
88'
Marcelo Ryan
FC Tokyo
🔄
90+1'
S. Muroya ↔ K. Suzuki
FC Tokyo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FC Tokyo Win 57.2%
Draw 9.9%
Kawasaki Frontale Win 32.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Tokyo1.86
Kawasaki Frontale1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Tokyo FC Tokyo
WWDLW
28 GF / 14 GA
Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale
WLDWL
24 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.71
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
9
BTTS Yes
8
8
Over 2.5
8
5.54
Shots on Goal
3.77

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 14 matches
Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 14 matches
FC Tokyo Statistic Kawasaki Frontale
8 Wins 6
5 Draws 3
1 Losses 5
28 Goals For 24
14 Goals Against 23
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.71
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
9 BTTS Yes 8
12 Over 1.5 12
8 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 5
5.54 Shots On Goal 3.77
14.85 Total Shots 11.31
4.85 Corners 4.54
52.1% Ball Possession 51.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around FC Tokyo's more proactive style and Kawasaki Frontale's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. FC Tokyo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 29 points compared to Kawasaki Frontale in 5 on 20, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. FC Tokyo come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Kawasaki Frontale. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Tokyo expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Kawasaki Frontale in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Kawasaki Frontale having the stronger overall control.

FC Tokyo Analysis

FC Tokyo approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 29 points after 13 outings. They have recorded 10 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a 27:13 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Marcelo Ryan (5 goals), Ryunosuke Sato (5 goals), Kein Sato (4 goals), with creative support from Marcelo Ryan (4 assists), Kein Sato (3 assists), K. Hashimoto (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Kawasaki Frontale Analysis

Kawasaki Frontale come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 20 points after 13 matches. They have recorded 7 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with a 20:23 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Erison (7 goals), Y. Wakizaka (3 goals), L. Romanic (2 goals), with creative support from Y. Wakizaka (4 assists), Y. Yamamoto (2 assists), K. Tachibanada (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Tokyo won 5 times, Kawasaki Frontale won 10 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:27 from FC Tokyo's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.1%)
Predicted formations: FC Tokyo 4-4-2 / Kawasaki Frontale 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FC Tokyo wins 5, draws 0, Kawasaki Frontale wins 10
Stats
FC Tokyo FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
2
6 Corner Kicks 3
9 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 1
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Goal 1
3 Shots off Goal 7
4 Blocked Shots 2
8 Shots insidebox 4
4 Shots outsidebox 6
1 Goalkeeper Saves 3
455 Total passes 531
371 Passes accurate 459
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

FC Tokyo
Formation
Kawasaki Frontale
Kim Seung-Gyu
Kim Seung-Gyu
S. Muroya
S. Muroya
R. Omori
R. Omori
H. Inamura
H. Inamura
K. Hashimoto
K. Hashimoto
K. Sato
K. Sato
T. Ko
T. Ko
K. Tokiwa
K. Tokiwa
L. Nozawa
L. Nozawa
T. Nakagawa
🎯
T. Nakagawa
R. Sato
R. Sato
L. Thebault-Yamaguchi
L. Thebault-Yamaguchi
R. Yamahara
R. Yamahara
A. Sasaki
A. Sasaki
Y. Maruyama
Y. Maruyama
S. Miura
S. Miura
T. Ito
T. Ito
S. Kawahara
S. Kawahara
K. Tachibanada
K. Tachibanada
T. Miyagi
T. Miyagi
S. Kanda
S. Kanda
Erison
Erison
FC Tokyo 4-4-2
Starting XI
81
Kim Seung-Gyu
G
2
S. Muroya
↓ 90+1'
D
15
R. Omori
D
17
H. Inamura
D
42
K. Hashimoto
D
16
K. Sato
⚽ 41' ↓ 68'
M
8
T. Ko
M
27
K. Tokiwa
↓ 68'
M
28
L. Nozawa
⚽ 56' ↓ 83'
M
39
T. Nakagawa
🎯 56' ↓ 69'
F
23
R. Sato
F
Substitutes
1
H. Tanaka
G
3
M. Morishige
D
18
K. Hashimoto
↑ 68'
M
22
K. Endo
↑ 83'
M
71
F. Yamada
↑ 68'
M
55
D. C. Otani
F
10
K. Higashi
M
9
Marcelo Ryan
↑ 69' 🟨 88'
F
44
K. Suzuki
↑ 90+1'
D
Kawasaki Frontale 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
L. Thebault-Yamaguchi
G
29
R. Yamahara
D
5
A. Sasaki
D
28
Y. Maruyama
D
13
S. Miura
D
17
T. Ito
↓ 46'
M
19
S. Kawahara
M
8
K. Tachibanada
↓ 79'
M
24
T. Miyagi
↓ 46'
M
38
S. Kanda
↓ 57'
F
9
Erison
↓ 87' 🟨 66'
F
Substitutes
21
Y. Hayasaka
G
22
F. Uremovic
D
6
Y. Yamamoto
↑ 79'
M
14
Y. Wakizaka
↑ 46'
M
32
S. Hayashi
D
34
R. Osa
↑ 87'
M
23
Marcinho
↑ 46'
F
91
L. Romanic
↑ 57'
F
2
Y. Matsunagane
D
Last matches: FC Tokyo
06.06.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
1
3
L
30.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
2
2
D
23.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashima
0
1
L
16.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Urawa
0
0
D
10.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Tokyo Verdy
2
1
W
06.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
JEF United Chiba
0
3
L
29.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa Reysol
3
1
W
24.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Mito Hollyhock
5
2
W
11.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Yokohama F. Marinos
3
1
W
05.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Machida Zelvia
0
0
D
01.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Machida Zelvia
3
0
W
22.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Tokyo Verdy
0
0
D
18.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
JEF United Chiba
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Mito Hollyhock
1
1
D
07.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Yokohama F. Marinos
3
0
W
28.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa Reysol
0
2
L
21.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
1
W
14.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Urawa
1
1
D
07.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashima
1
1
D
18.01.26
Fri
FC Tokyo
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4
3
W
Last matches: Kawasaki Frontale
06.06.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0
1
L
30.05.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
2
L
24.05.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Mito Hollyhock
3
1
W
17.05.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Machida Zelvia
1
1
D
10.05.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Kashiwa Reysol
0
1
L
06.05.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Tokyo Verdy
1
0
W
29.04.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Urawa
0
2
L
25.04.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
JEF United Chiba
2
1
W
18.04.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Yokohama F. Marinos
2
1
W
12.04.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Kashima
0
2
L
05.04.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Urawa
3
2
W
28.03.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Machida Zelvia
1
1
D
22.03.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Yokohama F. Marinos
0
5
L
18.03.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Tokyo Verdy
2
0
W
14.03.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Kashima
0
1
L
01.03.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Mito Hollyhock
2
2
D
21.02.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
FC Tokyo
1
2
L
15.02.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
JEF United Chiba
0
0
D
08.02.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Kashiwa Reysol
5
3
W
16.01.26
Fri
Kawasaki Frontale
FC Ryukyu
6
1
W
H2H: FC Tokyo vs Kawasaki Frontale
02.05.26
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
0
W
21.02.26
H2H
Kawasaki Frontale
FC Tokyo
1
2
W
20.09.25
H2H
Kawasaki Frontale
FC Tokyo
0
1
W
29.03.25
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
0
3
L
11.08.24
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
0
3
L
30.03.24
H2H
Kawasaki Frontale
FC Tokyo
3
0
L
15.09.23
H2H
Kawasaki Frontale
FC Tokyo
1
0
L
12.05.23
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
1
W
05.11.22
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
3
L
18.02.22
H2H
Kawasaki Frontale
FC Tokyo
1
0
L
02.10.21
H2H
Kawasaki Frontale
FC Tokyo
1
0
L
11.04.21
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
4
L
31.10.20
H2H
Kawasaki Frontale
FC Tokyo
2
1
L
07.10.20
H2H
Kawasaki Frontale
FC Tokyo
0
2
W
08.07.20
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
0
4
L
Last matches: FC Tokyo
06.06.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Cerezo Osaka
1
3
L
10.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Tokyo Verdy
2
1
W
06.05.26
J1
FC Tokyo
JEF United Chiba
0
3
L
24.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Mito Hollyhock
5
2
W
05.04.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Machida Zelvia
0
0
D
07.03.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Yokohama F. Marinos
3
0
W
28.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa Reysol
0
2
L
14.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Urawa
1
1
D
07.02.26
J1
FC Tokyo
Kashima
1
1
D
18.01.26
Fri
FC Tokyo
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4
3
W
H2H at home: FC Tokyo
02.05.26
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
0
W
29.03.25
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
0
3
L
11.08.24
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
0
3
L
12.05.23
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
1
W
05.11.22
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
3
L
11.04.21
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
4
L
08.07.20
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
0
4
L
Last matches: Kawasaki Frontale
30.05.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
2
L
24.05.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Mito Hollyhock
3
1
W
10.05.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Kashiwa Reysol
0
1
L
29.04.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Urawa
0
2
L
18.04.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Yokohama F. Marinos
2
1
W
28.03.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Machida Zelvia
1
1
D
18.03.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Tokyo Verdy
2
0
W
14.03.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
Kashima
0
1
L
15.02.26
J1
Kawasaki Frontale
JEF United Chiba
0
0
D
H2H away: Kawasaki Frontale
02.05.26
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
0
L
29.03.25
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
0
3
W
11.08.24
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
0
3
W
12.05.23
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
1
L
05.11.22
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
3
W
11.04.21
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
2
4
W
08.07.20
H2H
FC Tokyo
Kawasaki Frontale
0
4
W

Standings

East
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 0 3 31:11 20 45
?
2 18 13 0 5 32:18 14 37
?
3 18 13 0 5 28:22 6 37
?
4 18 10 0 8 26:28 -2 28
?
5 18 10 0 8 22:26 -4 28
?
6 18 7 0 11 25:22 3 25
?
7 18 6 0 12 28:31 -3 20
?
8 18 7 0 11 22:24 -2 20
?
9 18 6 0 12 23:39 -16 18
?
10 18 3 0 15 18:34 -16 12
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)