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GERMANY › BUNDESLIGA
16.05.2026 13:30
Millerntor-Stadion
Referee: Daniel Siebert, Germany
FC St. Pauli
Match Timeline
VfL Wolfsburg
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
Vinícius Souza
VfL Wolfsburg
🟨
33'
Adam Daghim
VfL Wolfsburg
⚽
37'
K. Koulierakis · Assist: C. Eriksen
VfL Wolfsburg
🔄
46'
A. Hountondji ↔ A. Ceesay
FC St. Pauli
⚽
57'
A. Ceesay · Assist: C. Metcalfe
FC St. Pauli
⚽
64'
N. Vasilj
VfL Wolfsburg
VAR
66'
Jeanuël Belocian
VfL Wolfsburg
🔄
67'
M. Svanberg ↔ Y. Gerhardt
VfL Wolfsburg
VAR
75'
Yannick Gerhardt
VfL Wolfsburg
🔄
77'
A. Dzwigala ↔ R. Jones
FC St. Pauli
⚽
80'
D. Pejcinovic
VfL Wolfsburg
🟨
88'
Abdoulie Ceesay
FC St. Pauli
🔄
88'
A. Daghim ↔ K. Shiogai
VfL Wolfsburg
🟨
90+5'
Joel Chima Fujita
FC St. Pauli
🟨
90+4'
Kento Shiogai
VfL Wolfsburg
🔄
90+1'
C. Metcalfe ↔ M. Rasmussen
FC St. Pauli
🔄
90+1'
J. Irvine ↔ T. Hara
FC St. Pauli
🔄
90+4'
C. Eriksen ↔ L. Majer
VfL Wolfsburg
🔄
90+4'
D. Pejcinovic ↔ M. Amoura
VfL Wolfsburg

FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 69.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
69.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
35%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FC St. Pauli Win 13.7%
Draw 17.1%
VfL Wolfsburg Win 69.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC St. Pauli1.33
VfL Wolfsburg1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli
WWDLW
28 GF / 57 GA
VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg
WLDWL
42 GF / 68 GA
Key Stats
0.85
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1.73
Average Goals Conceded
2.06
18
BTTS Yes
24
18
Over 2.5
21
3.39
Shots on Goal
4.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 33 matches
VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 33 matches
FC St. Pauli Statistic VfL Wolfsburg
6 Wins 6
8 Draws 8
19 Losses 19
28 Goals For 42
57 Goals Against 68
0.85 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1.73 Avg Goals Conceded 2.06
18 BTTS Yes 24
27 Over 1.5 26
18 Over 2.5 21
6 Over 3.5 14
5 Clean Sheets 2
13 Failed To Score 8
3.39 Shots On Goal 4.03
10.24 Total Shots 11.7
4.64 Corners 4.3
44.4% Ball Possession 45%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring VfL Wolfsburg. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC St. Pauli expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and VfL Wolfsburg in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward VfL Wolfsburg having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. FC St. Pauli have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

FC St. Pauli Analysis

FC St. Pauli approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 26 points from 33 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 19 losses, together with goals at 28:57, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through D. Sinani (5 goals), A. Hountondji (4 goals), M. Kaars (3 goals), with creative support from D. Sinani (3 assists), J. Fujita (3 assists), M. Saliakas (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

VfL Wolfsburg Analysis

VfL Wolfsburg sit 16 with 26 points after 33 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 19 defeats with a 42:68 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Amoura (8 goals), Dženan Pejčinović (7 goals), Konstantinos Koulierakis (4 goals), with creative support from C. Eriksen (8 assists), S. Kumbedi (5 assists), Maximilian Arnold (4 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, FC St. Pauli won 0 times, VfL Wolfsburg won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:9 from FC St. Pauli's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (86.3%)
Predicted formations: FC St. Pauli 3-4-2-1 / VfL Wolfsburg 3-5-2
Missing players: FC St. Pauli 5, VfL Wolfsburg 9
H2H summary: FC St. Pauli wins 0, draws 4, VfL Wolfsburg wins 2

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 5 1 122:36 86 89
W W D W W
2 34 22 7 5 70:34 36 73
W W L W L
3 34 20 5 9 66:47 19 65
L W L W W
4 34 18 8 8 71:49 22 62
D W D D L
5 34 18 7 9 65:52 13 61
L W D W W
6 34 17 8 9 68:47 21 59
D L W W L
7 34 13 8 13 51:57 -6 47
W L D L W
8 34 11 11 12 61:65 -4 44
D L L D L
9 34 12 7 15 45:61 -16 43
L W W D W
10 34 10 10 14 44:53 -9 40
W L W L D
11 34 10 9 15 44:58 -14 39
W W D L L
12 34 9 11 14 42:53 -11 38
W L W D D
13 34 9 11 14 40:54 -14 38
D W W L L
14 34 7 11 16 49:63 -14 32
L L D L D
15 34 8 8 18 37:60 -23 32
L L L D W
16 34 7 8 19 45:69 -24 29
L D W L D
17 34 6 8 20 41:72 -31 26
L W D W L
18 34 6 8 20 29:60 -31 26
L L L L D
Champions League
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation