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GERMANY › BUNDESLIGA
03.05.2026 13:30
Millerntor-Stadion
Referee: Timo Gerach, Germany
FC St. Pauli
Match Timeline
FSV Mainz 05
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
6'
P. Tietz · Assist: S. Becker
FSV Mainz 05
⚽
40'
P. Mwene · Assist: S. Widmer
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
46'
L. Ritzka ↔ A. Dzwigala
FC St. Pauli
🔄
46'
D. Sinani ↔ C. Metcalfe
FC St. Pauli
🔄
65'
A. Hountondji ↔ M. Kaars
FC St. Pauli
🔄
65'
E. Smith ↔ A. Ceesay
FC St. Pauli
🟨
68'
Daniel Batz
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
72'
S. Becker ↔ A. Sieb
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
76'
K. Potulski ↔ D. Kohr
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
77'
S. Widmer ↔ A. Caci
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
84'
J. Irvine ↔ M. Rasmussen
FC St. Pauli
🔄
84'
N. Amiri ↔ L. Maloney
FSV Mainz 05
🔄
84'
P. Tietz ↔ N. Weiper
FSV Mainz 05
⚽
87'
A. Ceesay · Assist: M. Kaars
FC St. Pauli
🟨
88'
Karol Mets
FC St. Pauli
🟨
90+4'
Abdoulie Ceesay
FC St. Pauli
🟨
90+1'
Connor Metcalfe
FC St. Pauli

FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 68.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 36.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
68.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
36.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FC St. Pauli Win 26.2%
Draw 5.5%
FSV Mainz 05 Win 68.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC St. Pauli1.05
FSV Mainz 051.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli
WWDLW
26 GF / 53 GA
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05
WLDWL
55 GF / 59 GA
Key Stats
0.84
Average Goals Scored
1.28
1.71
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
16
BTTS Yes
23
16
Over 2.5
20
3.42
Shots on Goal
3.98

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 31 matches
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 43 matches
FC St. Pauli Statistic FSV Mainz 05
6 Wins 15
8 Draws 12
17 Losses 16
26 Goals For 55
53 Goals Against 59
0.84 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
1.71 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
16 BTTS Yes 23
25 Over 1.5 33
16 Over 2.5 20
6 Over 3.5 12
5 Clean Sheets 9
13 Failed To Score 13
3.42 Shots On Goal 3.98
10.32 Total Shots 12.26
4.55 Corners 5.16
44.6% Ball Possession 44.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. FC St. Pauli have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FSV Mainz 05. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC St. Pauli expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and FSV Mainz 05 in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FSV Mainz 05 having the stronger overall control.

FC St. Pauli Analysis

With 26 points from 31 games and a place of 16, FC St. Pauli still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 17 losses, together with goals at 26:53, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Sinani (5 goals), A. Hountondji (4 goals), M. Kaars (3 goals), with creative support from D. Sinani (3 assists), J. Fujita (3 assists), M. Saliakas (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

FSV Mainz 05 Analysis

From their first 31 matches, FSV Mainz 05 have collected 34 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. The record of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 39:49 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through N. Amiri (11 goals), Paul Nebel (5 goals), Jae-sung Lee (4 goals), with creative support from Danny da Costa (3 assists), B. Hollerbach (3 assists), N. Amiri (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, FC St. Pauli won 0 times, FSV Mainz 05 won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:13 from FC St. Pauli's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.83 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.6%)
Predicted formations: FC St. Pauli 3-4-2-1 / FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
Missing players: FC St. Pauli 3, FSV Mainz 05 5
H2H summary: FC St. Pauli wins 0, draws 1, FSV Mainz 05 wins 5

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 5 1 122:36 86 89
W W D W W
2 34 22 7 5 70:34 36 73
W W L W L
3 34 20 5 9 66:47 19 65
L W L W W
4 34 18 8 8 71:49 22 62
D W D D L
5 34 18 7 9 65:52 13 61
L W D W W
6 34 17 8 9 68:47 21 59
D L W W L
7 34 13 8 13 51:57 -6 47
W L D L W
8 34 11 11 12 61:65 -4 44
D L L D L
9 34 12 7 15 45:61 -16 43
L W W D W
10 34 10 10 14 44:53 -9 40
W L W L D
11 34 10 9 15 44:58 -14 39
W W D L L
12 34 9 11 14 42:53 -11 38
W L W D D
13 34 9 11 14 40:54 -14 38
D W W L L
14 34 7 11 16 49:63 -14 32
L L D L D
15 34 8 8 18 37:60 -23 32
L L L D W
16 34 7 8 19 45:69 -24 29
L D W L D
17 34 6 8 20 41:72 -31 26
L W D W L
18 34 6 8 20 29:60 -31 26
L L L L D
Champions League
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Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation