FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
68.4%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
30.6%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
36.9%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 0-1 |
-
|
- |
FC St. Pauli
FSV Mainz 05
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
FC St. Pauli
31 matches
FSV Mainz 05
43 matches
| FC St. Pauli | Statistic | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Wins | 15 |
| 8 | Draws | 12 |
| 17 | Losses | 16 |
| 26 | Goals For | 55 |
| 53 | Goals Against | 59 |
| 0.84 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.28 |
| 1.71 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.37 |
| 16 | BTTS Yes | 23 |
| 25 | Over 1.5 | 33 |
| 16 | Over 2.5 | 20 |
| 6 | Over 3.5 | 12 |
| 5 | Clean Sheets | 9 |
| 13 | Failed To Score | 13 |
| 3.42 | Shots On Goal | 3.98 |
| 10.32 | Total Shots | 12.26 |
| 4.55 | Corners | 5.16 |
| 44.6% | Ball Possession | 44.9% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. FC St. Pauli have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FSV Mainz 05. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC St. Pauli expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and FSV Mainz 05 in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FSV Mainz 05 having the stronger overall control.
With 26 points from 31 games and a place of 16, FC St. Pauli still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 17 losses, together with goals at 26:53, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Sinani (5 goals), A. Hountondji (4 goals), M. Kaars (3 goals), with creative support from D. Sinani (3 assists), J. Fujita (3 assists), M. Saliakas (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
From their first 31 matches, FSV Mainz 05 have collected 34 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. The record of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 39:49 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through N. Amiri (11 goals), Paul Nebel (5 goals), Jae-sung Lee (4 goals), with creative support from Danny da Costa (3 assists), B. Hollerbach (3 assists), N. Amiri (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, FC St. Pauli won 0 times, FSV Mainz 05 won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:13 from FC St. Pauli's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.83 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 122:36 | 86 | 89 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 70:34 | 36 | 73 |
W
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 3 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 66:47 | 19 | 65 |
L
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 71:49 | 22 | 62 |
D
W
D
D
L
|
|
| 5 | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 65:52 | 13 | 61 |
L
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 6 | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 68:47 | 21 | 59 |
D
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 7 | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 51:57 | -6 | 47 |
W
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 61:65 | -4 | 44 |
D
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 9 | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 45:61 | -16 | 43 |
L
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 10 |
FSV Mainz 05
Away
|
34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 44:53 | -9 | 40 |
W
L
W
L
D
|
| 11 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 44:58 | -14 | 39 |
W
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 12 | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42:53 | -11 | 38 |
W
L
W
D
D
|
|
| 13 | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:54 | -14 | 38 |
D
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 49:63 | -14 | 32 |
L
L
D
L
D
|
|
| 15 | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 37:60 | -23 | 32 |
L
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 16 | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 45:69 | -24 | 29 |
L
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 17 | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 41:72 | -31 | 26 |
L
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 18 |
FC St. Pauli
Home
|
34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 29:60 | -31 | 26 |
L
L
L
L
D
|