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PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
20.09.2026 19:30
Estádio do Dragão
Referee: Miguel Nogueira, Portugal
FC Porto
Match Timeline
Benfica
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Gabri Veiga
FC Porto
🟨
25'
Clément Lenglet
Benfica
⚽
31'
G. Veiga · Assist: Pepe
FC Porto
🟨
34'
Gianluca Prestianni
Benfica
🟥
35'
Clément Lenglet
Benfica
🟨
35'
Clément Lenglet
Benfica
🔄
38'
G. Sudakov ↔ A. Circati
Benfica
🔄
38'
G. Veiga ↔ Hwang In-Beom
FC Porto
⚽
51'
A. Bah · Assist: G. Prestianni
Benfica
⚽
54'
V. Froholdt · Assist: Andre Silva
FC Porto
⚽
60'
Hwang In-Beom · Assist: Andre Silva
FC Porto
🔄
69'
M. Fernandes ↔ F. Moura
FC Porto
🔄
69'
William Gomes ↔ B. Sainz
FC Porto
🔄
74'
F. Aursnes ↔ L. Barreiro
Benfica
🔄
74'
Rafa Silva ↔ D. Lukebakio
Benfica
🔄
74'
G. Prestianni ↔ A. Schjelderup
Benfica
🟨
80'
Hwang In-beom
FC Porto
🔄
85'
S. Dahl ↔ S. El Karouani
Benfica
🔄
85'
Pepê ↔ O. Pietuszewski
FC Porto
🔄
85'
Andre Silva ↔ Samu
FC Porto
🟨
90+3'
Tomás Araújo
Benfica
🟨
90+3'
Alexander Bah
Benfica
🟨
90+2'
Oskar Pietuszewski
FC Porto

FC Porto vs Benfica Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 50.5%
Odds 2.52
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 1.70
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.95
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
50.5%
2.52 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
1.70 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.95 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.26 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
FC Porto Win 39.4%
Draw 10.1%
Benfica Win 50.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Porto1.46
Benfica2.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Porto FC Porto
WWDLW
17 GF / 6 GA
Benfica Benfica
WLDWL
50 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.89
Average Goals Scored
3.13
0.67
Average Goals Conceded
0.81
3
BTTS Yes
10
4
Over 2.5
13
5.14
Shots on Goal
6.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Porto FC Porto 9 matches
Benfica Benfica 16 matches
FC Porto Statistic Benfica
7 Wins 12
0 Draws 2
2 Losses 2
17 Goals For 50
6 Goals Against 13
1.89 Avg Goals Scored 3.13
0.67 Avg Goals Conceded 0.81
3 BTTS Yes 10
8 Over 1.5 16
4 Over 2.5 13
1 Over 3.5 9
4 Clean Sheets 6
2 Failed To Score 0
5.14 Shots On Goal 6.38
13.71 Total Shots 10.23
6.71 Corners 5.46
53.1% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Benfica. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Porto expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Benfica in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Benfica having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

FC Porto Analysis

FC Porto come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 18 points after 6 matches. With 6 wins, 0 draws, and 0 defeats plus a goal balance of 15:2, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by André Silva (3 goals), Gabri Veiga (2 goals), William (2 goals), with creative support from Gabri Veiga (2 assists), Pepê Aquino (2 assists), William (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Benfica Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 13 points from 5 games, Benfica bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, with a 18:3 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on V. Pavlidis (6 goals), G. Prestianni (4 goals), L. Barreiro (2 goals), with creative support from V. Pavlidis (2 assists), G. Prestianni (2 assists), A. Schjelderup (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Porto won 6 times, Benfica won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:18 from FC Porto's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.9%)
Predicted formations: FC Porto 4-3-3 / Benfica 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FC Porto wins 6, draws 4, Benfica wins 5

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 7 0 0 18:3 15 21
W W W W W
2 8 5 3 0 20:9 11 18
W D D W W
3 7 5 1 1 22:7 15 16
L W W W W
4 7 4 3 0 11:4 7 15
D W W D W
5 7 3 2 2 10:7 3 11
D L D W L
6 7 3 2 2 6:5 1 11
W D L L D
7 7 3 2 2 8:8 0 11
L D W L W
8 7 3 2 2 9:9 0 11
W W W L D
9 7 2 4 1 14:14 0 10
L D W D W
10 7 2 2 3 9:11 -2 8
W W L D L
11 7 2 2 3 8:12 -4 8
D L L L D
12 8 2 2 4 8:15 -7 8
L D W L L
13 7 1 4 2 9:7 2 7
W D D D L
14 7 1 2 4 5:8 -3 5
D L D L W
15 7 1 1 5 7:15 -8 4
L L L L L
16 7 1 1 5 5:15 -10 4
L D L L W
17 7 1 1 5 3:16 -13 4
W L D L L
18 7 0 2 5 3:10 -7 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2