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RUSSIA › PREMIER LEAGUE
17.09.2026 13:15
Gazovik Stadium
Referee: Kirill Levnikov
FC Orenburg
Match Timeline
FC Krasnodar
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
17'
Aleksey Tataev
FC Orenburg
🟨
20'
Danila Khotulev
FC Orenburg
🟨
31'
Vitor Tormena
FC Krasnodar
🔄
62'
Juan Manuel Boselli ↔ Dmitriy Vorobyov
FC Krasnodar
🔄
66'
Daniil Utkin ↔ Magomed Ozdoev
FC Krasnodar
🔄
68'
Jordhy Thompson ↔ Andrey Kasadzhikov
FC Orenburg
🔄
69'
Mikhail Pykhcheev ↔ Robert Mejia Navarrete
FC Orenburg
🔄
75'
Damian Puebla ↔ Renat Golybin
FC Orenburg
🔄
75'
Gedeon Guzina ↔ Alexandre Jesus
FC Orenburg
🟨
77'
Robert Mejia Navarrete
FC Orenburg
🟨
79'
Aleksandr Chernikov
FC Krasnodar
🔄
82'
Ilya Vakhania ↔ Valentin Paltsev
FC Krasnodar
🔄
82'
Aleksandr Chernikov ↔ Kevin Pina
FC Krasnodar
🟨
86'
Joao Batxi
FC Krasnodar
🟨
89'
Jhon Cordoba
FC Krasnodar
🟨
90'
Egor Nazarenko
FC Orenburg
🔄
90+2'
Aleksey Tataev ↔ Joao Silva
FC Orenburg
🟨
90+4'
Andrey Kasadzhikov
FC Orenburg

FC Orenburg vs FC Krasnodar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.2%
Odds 1.68
0 agree / 1 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 1.81
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.2%
1.68 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
1.81 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.9%
1.32 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.60 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
7.90 ▥
Probability Distribution
FC Orenburg Win 32%
Draw 12.8%
FC Krasnodar Win 55.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Orenburg1.23
FC Krasnodar1.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Orenburg FC Orenburg
WWDLW
25 GF / 18 GA
FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar
WLDWL
34 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
2
1
Average Goals Conceded
1
10
BTTS Yes
10
8
Over 2.5
10
3.38
Shots on Goal
5.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Orenburg FC Orenburg 18 matches
FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar 17 matches
FC Orenburg Statistic FC Krasnodar
8 Wins 10
5 Draws 5
5 Losses 2
25 Goals For 34
18 Goals Against 17
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 2
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1
10 BTTS Yes 10
12 Over 1.5 12
8 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 7
4 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 2
3.38 Shots On Goal 5.63
11.88 Total Shots 15.38
3 Corners 4.25
37% Ball Possession 57.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by FC Krasnodar's more proactive style and FC Orenburg's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FC Krasnodar. FC Krasnodar look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. FC Krasnodar carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 19 points while FC Orenburg sit 10 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

FC Orenburg Analysis

So far, FC Orenburg have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 8 points from 7 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses, while the 7:9 goal ratio supports the view of poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on R. Kul (2 goals), A. Kasadzhikov (2 goals), G. Guzina (1 goals), with creative support from R. Kul (1 assists), A. Kasadzhikov (1 assists), G. Guzina (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

FC Krasnodar Analysis

FC Krasnodar approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 19 points after 7 outings. The return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats, together with goals at 13:6, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through Nikita Krivtsov (3 goals), Jubal (3 goals), Christian (2 goals), with creative support from Christian (2 assists), L. Olaza (2 assists), D. Vorobjev (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Orenburg won 2 times, FC Krasnodar won 9 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:28 from FC Orenburg's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.2%)
Predicted formations: FC Orenburg 4-2-3-1 / FC Krasnodar 4-2-3-1
Missing players: FC Orenburg 6, FC Krasnodar 1
H2H summary: FC Orenburg wins 2, draws 4, FC Krasnodar wins 9

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 3 0 14:7 7 21
D D D W W
2 9 6 1 2 14:8 6 19
W W W W W
3 9 5 4 0 15:9 6 19
W D W D W
4 9 6 1 2 16:7 9 19
W W L D W
5 9 6 0 3 19:9 10 18
W W L W L
6 9 2 6 1 12:11 1 12
D D D W D
7 9 4 0 5 15:16 -1 12
L L W L L
8 9 3 2 4 14:12 2 11
L D L W D
9 9 2 5 2 13:14 -1 11
D W D D W
10 9 2 4 3 13:13 0 10
L W D D W
11 9 1 6 2 7:10 -3 9
D L D D D
12 9 2 2 5 10:17 -7 8
L L W L L
13 9 1 5 3 11:18 -7 8
W D D D L
14 9 1 4 4 8:11 -3 7
D L W L L
15 9 1 2 6 10:22 -12 5
D L L L L
16 9 0 3 6 6:13 -7 3
L D L L D
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - FNL