RUSSIA › PREMIER LEAGUE
10.10.2026 16:30
Ozon Arena

FC Krasnodar vs Zenit Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 46.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
46.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FC Krasnodar Win 46.1%
Draw 15.2%
Zenit Win 38.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Krasnodar1.45
Zenit1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar
WWDLW
34 GF / 17 GA
Zenit Zenit
WLDWL
53 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.89
Average Goals Scored
2.12
0.94
Average Goals Conceded
0.8
10
BTTS Yes
11
10
Over 2.5
15
5.11
Shots on Goal
5.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar 18 matches
Zenit Zenit 25 matches
FC Krasnodar Statistic Zenit
10 Wins 17
6 Draws 4
2 Losses 4
34 Goals For 53
17 Goals Against 20
1.89 Avg Goals Scored 2.12
0.94 Avg Goals Conceded 0.8
10 BTTS Yes 11
12 Over 1.5 20
10 Over 2.5 15
7 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 12
3 Failed To Score 3
5.11 Shots On Goal 5.67
15.44 Total Shots 15.44
4.33 Corners 5.78
57.7% Ball Possession 60.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Zenit. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

FC Krasnodar Analysis

FC Krasnodar arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 1 place with 21 points after 9 matches. The record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 14:7 goal balance, points toward mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through Nikita Krivtsov (3 goals), Jubal (3 goals), Christian (2 goals), with creative support from Christian (2 assists), L. Olaza (2 assists), D. Vorobjev (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Zenit Analysis

Zenit come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 18 points after 9 matches. They have recorded 6 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a 19:9 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on M. Glushenkov (6 goals), A. Sobolev (4 goals), Luiz Henrique (2 goals), with creative support from Pedro Henrique (3 assists), M. Glushenkov (1 assists), A. Sobolev (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Krasnodar won 2 times, Zenit won 9 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:29 from FC Krasnodar's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.8%)
Predicted formations: FC Krasnodar 4-2-3-1 / Zenit 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FC Krasnodar wins 2, draws 4, Zenit wins 9

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 3 0 14:7 7 21
D D D W W
2 9 6 1 2 14:8 6 19
W W W W W
3 9 5 4 0 15:9 6 19
W D W D W
4 9 6 1 2 16:7 9 19
W W L D W
5
Zenit Away
9 6 0 3 19:9 10 18
W W L W L
6 9 2 6 1 12:11 1 12
D D D W D
7 9 4 0 5 15:16 -1 12
L L W L L
8 9 3 2 4 14:12 2 11
L D L W D
9 9 2 5 2 13:14 -1 11
D W D D W
10 9 2 4 3 13:13 0 10
L W D D W
11 9 1 6 2 7:10 -3 9
D L D D D
12 9 2 2 5 10:17 -7 8
L L W L L
13 9 1 5 3 11:18 -7 8
W D D D L
14 9 1 4 4 8:11 -3 7
D L W L L
15 9 1 2 6 10:22 -12 5
D L L L L
16 9 0 3 6 6:13 -7 3
L D L L D
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - FNL