🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
TQL Stadium
Referee: R. Vazquez
FC Cincinnati
Match Timeline
Orlando City SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
10'
Adrián Marín
Orlando City SC
16'
M. Ojeda
Orlando City SC
🟨
32'
Gerardo Valenzuela
FC Cincinnati
🟨
40'
Tiago Souza
Orlando City SC
42'
K. Mboma · Assist: Evander
FC Cincinnati
45'
Evander · Assist: P. Bucha
FC Cincinnati
🔄
46'
Tiago ↔ T. Spicer
Orlando City SC
🟨
47'
Matt Miazga
FC Cincinnati
48'
M. Ojeda
Orlando City SC
52'
K. Mboma · Assist: Evander
FC Cincinnati
🔄
57'
J. Ellis ↔ M. Pasalic
Orlando City SC
58'
Evander · Assist: M. Miazga
FC Cincinnati
🟨
70'
David Brekalo
Orlando City SC
🔄
72'
G. Dorsey ↔ W. Cartagena
Orlando City SC
🔄
72'
A. Gomez ↔ D. McGuire
Orlando City SC
🔄
74'
O. Nwobodo ↔ T. Anunga
FC Cincinnati
77'
K. Denkey · Assist: Evander
FC Cincinnati
🔄
83'
G. Valenzuela ↔ E. Echenique
FC Cincinnati
🔄
83'
K. Mboma ↔ T. Barlow
FC Cincinnati
🔄
85'
B. Ojeda ↔ Luis Otavio
Orlando City SC
🔄
90+2'
S. Gidi ↔ N. Hagglund
FC Cincinnati
🔄
90+5'
K. Denkey ↔ A. Jabbari
FC Cincinnati
90'
T. Barlow · Assist: E. Echenique
FC Cincinnati

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
71.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FC Cincinnati Win 74%
Draw 7.4%
Orlando City SC Win 18.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Cincinnati2.48
Orlando City SC1.76
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
WWDLW
52 GF / 45 GA
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
WLDWL
28 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
2.36
Average Goals Scored
1.56
2.05
Average Goals Conceded
2.67
14
BTTS Yes
13
14
Over 2.5
14
5.72
Shots on Goal
4.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 22 matches
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 18 matches
FC Cincinnati Statistic Orlando City SC
8 Wins 5
7 Draws 3
7 Losses 10
52 Goals For 28
45 Goals Against 48
2.36 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
2.05 Avg Goals Conceded 2.67
14 BTTS Yes 13
19 Over 1.5 17
14 Over 2.5 14
13 Over 3.5 11
6 Clean Sheets 0
2 Failed To Score 5
5.72 Shots On Goal 4.36
13.56 Total Shots 10.57
4.56 Corners 3.64
49.7% Ball Possession 45.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Cincinnati expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Orlando City SC in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Orlando City SC having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Orlando City SC.

FC Cincinnati Analysis

So far, FC Cincinnati have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 17 points from 14 matches. The record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 30:35 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through K. Denkey (8 goals), Evander (7 goals), T. Barlow (4 goals), with creative support from Evander (3 assists), P. Bucha (3 assists), E. Echenique (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Orlando City SC Analysis

From their first 14 matches, Orlando City SC have collected 14 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. The record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 21:38 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Ojeda (9 goals), D. McGuire (2 goals), G. Dorsey (2 goals), with creative support from I. Angulo (4 assists), A. Gomez (3 assists), J. Ellis (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Cincinnati won 5 times, Orlando City SC won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:23 from FC Cincinnati's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.6%)
Predicted formations: FC Cincinnati 3-4-2-1 / Orlando City SC 3-4-3
Missing players: FC Cincinnati 5, Orlando City SC 3
H2H summary: FC Cincinnati wins 5, draws 4, Orlando City SC wins 6
Stats
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
Shots on Goal
11
Shots on Goal
9
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
4
6 Corner Kicks 9
17 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 1
55% Ball Possession 45%
22 Total Shots 19
11 Shots on Goal 9
7 Shots off Goal 6
4 Blocked Shots 4
17 Shots insidebox 15
5 Shots outsidebox 4
7 Goalkeeper Saves 5
500 Total passes 391
455 Passes accurate 330
3.23 expected_goals 2.29
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

FC Cincinnati
Formation
Orlando City SC
R. Celentano
R. Celentano
S. Gidi
S. Gidi
M. Miazga
🎯
M. Miazga
K. Smith
K. Smith
P. Bucha
🎯
P. Bucha
G. Valenzuela
G. Valenzuela
O. Nwobodo
O. Nwobodo
B. J. Ramirez Leon
B. J. Ramirez Leon
K. Mboma
⚽ 2
K. Mboma
Evander
⚽ 2 🎯
Evander
K. Denkey
K. Denkey
M. Crepeau
M. Crepeau
D. Brekalo
D. Brekalo
R. Jansson
R. Jansson
A. Gomez
A. Gomez
G. Dorsey
G. Dorsey
B. Ojeda
B. Ojeda
E. Atuesta
E. Atuesta
I. Angulo
I. Angulo
J. Ellis
J. Ellis
Tiago
Tiago
M. Ojeda
⚽ 2
M. Ojeda
FC Cincinnati 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
18
R. Celentano
G
11
S. Gidi
↓ 90+2'
D
21
M. Miazga
🎯 58' 🟨 47'
D
24
K. Smith
D
20
P. Bucha
🎯 45'
M
22
G. Valenzuela
↓ 83' 🟨 32'
M
5
O. Nwobodo
↓ 74'
M
29
B. J. Ramirez Leon
M
17
K. Mboma
⚽ 42' ⚽ 52' ↓ 83'
F
10
Evander
⚽ 45' ⚽ 58' 🎯 42' 🎯 52' 🎯 77'
F
9
K. Denkey
⚽ 77' ↓ 90+5'
F
Substitutes
13
E. Louro
G
4
N. Hagglund
↑ 90+2'
D
27
T. Anunga
↑ 74'
M
66
E. Echenique
🎯 90' ↑ 83'
F
99
A. Jabbari
↑ 90+5'
F
3
G. Flores
D
16
T. Barlow
⚽ 90' ↑ 83'
F
88
A. Chirila
D
55
A. Lajhar
D
Orlando City SC 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
71
M. Crepeau
G
4
D. Brekalo
🟨 70'
D
6
R. Jansson
D
3
A. Gomez
↓ 72'
24
G. Dorsey
↓ 72'
M
8
B. Ojeda
↓ 85'
M
20
E. Atuesta
M
77
I. Angulo
M
22
J. Ellis
↓ 57'
F
11
Tiago
↓ 46' 🟨 40'
F
10
M. Ojeda
⚽ 16' ⚽ 48'
F
Substitutes
12
J. Otero
G
16
W. Cartagena
↑ 72'
M
87
M. Pasalic
↑ 57'
F
57
Iago Teodoro
D
19
Z. Taifi
M
13
D. McGuire
↑ 72'
F
5
Luis Otavio
↑ 85'
M
29
T. Reid-Brown
D
14
T. Spicer
↑ 46'
F
Last matches: FC Cincinnati
17.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
San Diego
3
3
D
13.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
5
L
09.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Charlotte
2
2
D
03.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
2
W
25.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
0
W
22.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
4
4
D
18.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
3
D
11.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
1
1
D
04.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
4
L
22.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
CF Montreal
4
3
W
20.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
1
5
L
15.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New England Revolution
1
6
L
13.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
3
0
W
08.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
0
1
L
28.02.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Minnesota United FC
0
1
L
26.02.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Universidad O&M
9
0
W
21.02.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Atlanta United FC
2
0
W
19.02.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Universidad O&M
4
0
W
11.02.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
2
3
L
07.02.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Detroit City
1
0
W
Last matches: Orlando City SC
16.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Atlanta United FC
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Philadelphia Union
4
3
W
09.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
CF Montreal
0
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Inter Miami
4
3
W
25.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
DC United
2
3
L
22.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Charlotte
4
1
W
18.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Houston Dynamo
0
1
L
12.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Columbus Crew
1
1
D
05.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Los Angeles FC
0
6
L
21.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Nashville SC
0
5
L
14.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
CF Montreal
2
1
W
07.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
New York City FC
0
5
L
02.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Inter Miami
2
4
L
22.02.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
New York Red Bulls
1
2
L
15.02.26
Fri
Orlando City SC
Colorado Rapids
1
4
L
11.02.26
Fri
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
3
2
W
07.02.26
Fri
Orlando City SC
Nashville SC
2
2
D
24.01.26
Fri
Orlando City SC
Lexington
1
2
L
H2H: FC Cincinnati vs Orlando City SC
23.05.26
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
6
2
W
11.02.26
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
3
2
L
28.09.25
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
28.06.25
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
1
2
W
05.10.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
3
L
04.05.24
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
0
1
W
02.09.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
0
1
L
05.03.23
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
0
0
D
24.06.22
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
0
W
13.03.22
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
1
2
W
16.10.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
0
1
L
07.08.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
01.05.21
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
3
0
L
29.09.19
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
19.05.19
H2H
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
5
1
L
Last matches: FC Cincinnati
13.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
5
L
25.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
0
W
18.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
3
D
22.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
CF Montreal
4
3
W
13.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
3
0
W
08.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
0
1
L
26.02.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Universidad O&M
9
0
W
21.02.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Atlanta United FC
2
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Detroit City
1
0
W
H2H at home: FC Cincinnati
23.05.26
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
6
2
W
28.09.25
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
05.10.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
3
L
02.09.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
0
1
L
24.06.22
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
0
W
16.10.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
0
1
L
07.08.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
29.09.19
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
Last matches: Orlando City SC
09.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
CF Montreal
0
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Inter Miami
4
3
W
25.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
DC United
2
3
L
12.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Columbus Crew
1
1
D
05.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Los Angeles FC
0
6
L
21.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Nashville SC
0
5
L
07.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
New York City FC
0
5
L
H2H away: Orlando City SC
23.05.26
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
6
2
L
28.09.25
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
05.10.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
3
W
02.09.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
0
1
W
24.06.22
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
0
L
16.10.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
0
1
W
07.08.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
29.09.19
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
1
1
D

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 10 3 1 31:11 20 33
W W W D D
2 15 9 4 2 39:28 11 31
W W W W L
3 14 8 2 4 27:16 11 26
W W W L L
4 14 8 1 5 22:18 4 25
L W L W W
5 15 6 4 5 25:32 -7 22
W D W W L
6 15 6 3 6 24:23 1 21
W W L D L
7 15 5 5 5 36:37 -1 20
W D L D W
8 15 5 4 6 25:21 4 19
L D W W L
9 15 4 6 5 21:25 -4 18
D D L D W
10 15 4 4 7 21:23 -2 16
W D L L L
11 14 4 2 8 22:31 -9 14
D L D W L
12 15 4 2 9 23:44 -21 14
L D W L W
13 14 3 5 6 22:29 -7 14
L L L D L
14 14 3 2 9 14:23 -9 11
L D L W W
15 15 1 4 10 18:30 -12 7
L D L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Missing Players

FC Cincinnati 5 missing
-
K. Fletcher
Questionable Knee Injury
OUT
-
M. Robinson
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
A. Powell
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
-
A. Chirila
Questionable Concussion
OUT
-
T. Hadebe
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
Orlando City SC 3 missing
-
J. Gerbet
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
T. Spicer
Questionable Ankle Injury
OUT
-
N. Miller
Questionable Knee Injury
OUT