🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
TQL Stadium
Referee: A. Da Silva
FC Cincinnati
Match Timeline
Inter Miami
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
24'
L. Messi
Inter Miami
🟨
38'
Ian Fray
Inter Miami
🟨
40'
Gonzalo Luján
Inter Miami
41'
K. Denkey
FC Cincinnati
49'
P. Bucha · Assist: B. J. Ramirez Leon
FC Cincinnati
55'
L. Messi · Assist: R. de Paul
Inter Miami
🔄
60'
S. Gidi ↔ E. Echenique
FC Cincinnati
64'
Evander · Assist: K. Denkey
FC Cincinnati
🔄
65'
S. Reguilon ↔ F. Mura
Inter Miami
🔄
72'
M. Robinson ↔ N. Hagglund
FC Cincinnati
🔄
73'
K. Mboma ↔ O. Nwobodo
FC Cincinnati
🔄
73'
M. Miazga ↔ A. Chirila
FC Cincinnati
🟨
76'
Obinna Nwobodo
FC Cincinnati
🟨
77'
Yannick Bright
Inter Miami
🔄
77'
L. Suarez ↔ M. Silvetti
Inter Miami
79'
M. Silvetti · Assist: L. Messi
Inter Miami
84'
G. Berterame
Inter Miami
🔄
87'
P. Bucha ↔ T. Barlow
FC Cincinnati
🔄
87'
↔ A. Lajhar
FC Cincinnati
89'
R. Celentano
Inter Miami
🟨
90+4'
Evander
FC Cincinnati

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 53.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 76.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
53.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
76.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
FC Cincinnati Win 39.9%
Draw 6.5%
Inter Miami Win 53.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Cincinnati2.02
Inter Miami1.84
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
WWDLW
46 GF / 37 GA
Inter Miami Inter Miami
WLDWL
33 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
2.3
Average Goals Scored
1.83
1.85
Average Goals Conceded
1.61
12
BTTS Yes
13
12
Over 2.5
13
5.88
Shots on Goal
6.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 20 matches
Inter Miami Inter Miami 18 matches
FC Cincinnati Statistic Inter Miami
8 Wins 8
6 Draws 7
6 Losses 3
46 Goals For 33
37 Goals Against 29
2.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.83
1.85 Avg Goals Conceded 1.61
12 BTTS Yes 13
17 Over 1.5 16
12 Over 2.5 13
11 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 4
5.88 Shots On Goal 6.14
14.13 Total Shots 14.86
4.94 Corners 5.36
50.8% Ball Possession 58.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Inter Miami's more proactive style and FC Cincinnati's more cautious structure. FC Cincinnati appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Inter Miami. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Inter Miami. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Cincinnati expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Inter Miami in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Inter Miami having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

FC Cincinnati Analysis

FC Cincinnati are currently 6 in the standings with 16 points from 12 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 24:27 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by K. Denkey (7 goals), Evander (6 goals), T. Barlow (2 goals), with creative support from E. Echenique (3 assists), P. Bucha (3 assists), K. Denkey (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with K. Fletcher, A. Powell, T. Hadebe unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Inter Miami Analysis

Inter Miami come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 22 points after 12 matches. With 6 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 26:21, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by L. Messi (9 goals), G. Berterame (3 goals), L. Suarez (3 goals), with creative support from Telasco Segovia (5 assists), L. Messi (3 assists), Rodrigo de Paul (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with C. Abadia-Reda, I. Fray unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Cincinnati won 5 times, Inter Miami won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:31 from FC Cincinnati's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.93 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.5%)
Predicted formations: FC Cincinnati 3-4-1-2 / Inter Miami 3-4-3
Missing players: FC Cincinnati 4, Inter Miami 3
H2H summary: FC Cincinnati wins 5, draws 3, Inter Miami wins 7
Stats
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami Inter Miami
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
5
1 Corner Kicks 8
19 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 1
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Goal 6
4 Shots off Goal 6
3 Blocked Shots 5
3 Shots insidebox 15
7 Shots outsidebox 2
1 Goalkeeper Saves 0
455 Total passes 513
390 Passes accurate 424
1.76 expected_goals 2.21
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

FC Cincinnati
Formation
Inter Miami
R. Celentano
R. Celentano
K. Smith
K. Smith
M. Miazga
M. Miazga
M. Robinson
M. Robinson
P. Bucha
P. Bucha
G. Valenzuela
G. Valenzuela
Evander
Evander
S. Gidi
S. Gidi
B. J. Ramirez Leon
🎯
B. J. Ramirez Leon
K. Denkey
🎯
K. Denkey
K. Mboma
K. Mboma
D. St.Clair
D. St.Clair
I. Fray
I. Fray
G. Lujan
G. Lujan
Micael
Micael
S. Reguilon
S. Reguilon
R. de Paul
🎯
R. de Paul
Y. Bright
Y. Bright
T. Segovia
T. Segovia
L. Messi
⚽ 2 🎯
L. Messi
G. Berterame
G. Berterame
L. Suarez
L. Suarez
FC Cincinnati 3-5-2
Starting XI
18
R. Celentano
⚽ 89'
G
24
K. Smith
D
21
M. Miazga
↓ 73'
D
12
M. Robinson
↓ 72'
D
20
P. Bucha
⚽ 49' ↓ 87'
M
22
G. Valenzuela
M
10
Evander
⚽ 64' 🟨 90+4'
M
11
S. Gidi
↓ 60'
M
29
B. J. Ramirez Leon
🎯 49'
M
9
K. Denkey
⚽ 41' 🎯 64'
F
17
K. Mboma
↓ 73'
F
Substitutes
13
E. Louro
G
4
N. Hagglund
↑ 72'
D
27
T. Anunga
M
66
E. Echenique
↑ 60'
F
99
A. Jabbari
F
5
O. Nwobodo
↑ 73' 🟨 76'
M
16
T. Barlow
↑ 87'
F
88
A. Chirila
↑ 73'
D
55
A. Lajhar
↑ 87'
D
Inter Miami 4-3-3
Starting XI
97
D. St.Clair
G
17
I. Fray
🟨 38'
D
2
G. Lujan
🟨 40'
D
16
Micael
D
3
S. Reguilon
↓ 65'
D
7
R. de Paul
🎯 55'
M
42
Y. Bright
🟨 77'
M
8
T. Segovia
M
10
L. Messi
⚽ 24' ⚽ 55' 🎯 79'
F
19
G. Berterame
⚽ 84'
F
9
L. Suarez
↓ 77'
F
Substitutes
34
R. Rios
G
4
F. Mura
↑ 65'
D
22
D. Ayala
M
37
M. Falcon
D
76
C. Abadia-Reda
D
56
D. Pinter
F
41
D. Ruiz
M
24
M. Silvetti
⚽ 79' ↑ 77'
F
59
P. Plambeck
M
Last matches: FC Cincinnati
23.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
6
2
W
17.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
San Diego
3
3
D
09.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Charlotte
2
2
D
03.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
2
W
25.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
0
W
22.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
4
4
D
18.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
3
D
11.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
1
1
D
04.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
4
L
22.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
CF Montreal
4
3
W
20.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
1
5
L
15.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New England Revolution
1
6
L
13.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
3
0
W
08.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
0
1
L
28.02.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Minnesota United FC
0
1
L
26.02.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Universidad O&M
9
0
W
21.02.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Atlanta United FC
2
0
W
19.02.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Universidad O&M
4
0
W
11.02.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
2
3
L
07.02.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Detroit City
1
0
W
Last matches: Inter Miami
24.05.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Philadelphia Union
6
4
W
17.05.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Portland Timbers
2
0
W
09.05.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Toronto FC
4
2
W
02.05.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Orlando City SC
3
4
L
25.04.26
Maj
Inter Miami
New England Revolution
1
1
D
23.04.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Real Salt Lake
2
0
W
18.04.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Colorado Rapids
3
2
W
11.04.26
Maj
Inter Miami
New York Red Bulls
2
2
D
04.04.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Austin
2
2
D
22.03.26
Maj
Inter Miami
New York City FC
3
2
W
18.03.26
CON
Inter Miami
Nashville SC
1
1
D
14.03.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Charlotte
0
0
D
11.03.26
CON
Inter Miami
Nashville SC
0
0
D
07.03.26
Maj
Inter Miami
DC United
2
1
W
02.03.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Orlando City SC
4
2
W
27.02.26
Fri
Inter Miami
Independiente del Valle
2
1
W
22.02.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Los Angeles FC
0
3
L
08.02.26
Fri
Inter Miami
Barcelona SC
2
2
D
31.01.26
Fri
Inter Miami
Atletico Nacional
2
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
Inter Miami
Alianza Lima
0
3
L
H2H: FC Cincinnati vs Inter Miami
13.05.26
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
5
L
23.11.25
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
0
4
L
26.07.25
H2H
Inter Miami
FC Cincinnati
0
0
D
16.07.25
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
0
W
24.08.24
H2H
Inter Miami
FC Cincinnati
2
0
L
06.07.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
6
1
W
07.10.23
H2H
Inter Miami
FC Cincinnati
0
1
W
23.08.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
3
D
01.04.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
1
0
W
31.07.22
H2H
Inter Miami
FC Cincinnati
4
4
D
19.03.22
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
1
W
24.10.21
H2H
Inter Miami
FC Cincinnati
5
1
L
05.09.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
0
1
L
16.05.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
2
3
L
08.11.20
H2H
Inter Miami
FC Cincinnati
2
1
L
Last matches: FC Cincinnati
23.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
6
2
W
25.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
0
W
18.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
3
D
22.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
CF Montreal
4
3
W
13.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
3
0
W
08.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
0
1
L
26.02.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Universidad O&M
9
0
W
21.02.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Atlanta United FC
2
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Detroit City
1
0
W
H2H at home: FC Cincinnati
13.05.26
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
5
L
23.11.25
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
0
4
L
16.07.25
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
0
W
06.07.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
6
1
W
23.08.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
3
D
01.04.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
1
0
W
19.03.22
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
1
W
05.09.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
0
1
L
16.05.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
2
3
L
Last matches: Inter Miami
09.05.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Toronto FC
4
2
W
23.04.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Real Salt Lake
2
0
W
18.04.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Colorado Rapids
3
2
W
22.03.26
Maj
Inter Miami
New York City FC
3
2
W
14.03.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Charlotte
0
0
D
11.03.26
CON
Inter Miami
Nashville SC
0
0
D
07.03.26
Maj
Inter Miami
DC United
2
1
W
02.03.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Orlando City SC
4
2
W
27.02.26
Fri
Inter Miami
Independiente del Valle
2
1
W
22.02.26
Maj
Inter Miami
Los Angeles FC
0
3
L
08.02.26
Fri
Inter Miami
Barcelona SC
2
2
D
31.01.26
Fri
Inter Miami
Atletico Nacional
2
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
Inter Miami
Alianza Lima
0
3
L
H2H away: Inter Miami
13.05.26
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
5
W
23.11.25
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
0
4
W
16.07.25
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
0
L
06.07.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
6
1
L
23.08.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
3
D
01.04.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
1
0
L
19.03.22
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
1
L
05.09.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
0
1
W
16.05.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
2
3
W

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 10 3 1 31:11 20 33
W W W D D
2 15 9 4 2 39:28 11 31
W W W W L
3 14 8 2 4 27:16 11 26
W W W L L
4 14 8 1 5 22:18 4 25
L W L W W
5 15 6 4 5 25:32 -7 22
W D W W L
6 15 6 3 6 24:23 1 21
W W L D L
7 15 5 5 5 36:37 -1 20
W D L D W
8 15 5 4 6 25:21 4 19
L D W W L
9 15 4 6 5 21:25 -4 18
D D L D W
10 15 4 4 7 21:23 -2 16
W D L L L
11 14 4 2 8 22:31 -9 14
D L D W L
12 15 4 2 9 23:44 -21 14
L D W L W
13 14 3 5 6 22:29 -7 14
L L L D L
14 14 3 2 9 14:23 -9 11
L D L W W
15 15 1 4 10 18:30 -12 7
L D L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Missing Players

FC Cincinnati 4 missing
-
K. Fletcher
Questionable Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. Powell
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
T. Hadebe
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
-
A. Jabbari
Questionable Leg Injury
OUT
Inter Miami 3 missing
-
N. Allen
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
I. Fray
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
T. Allende
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT