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15.05.2026 20:00
Estadio Heroes de San Ramon
Referee: K. Ortega
FC Cajamarca
Match Timeline
Sporting Cristal
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
22'
Juan Cruz Gonzalez
Sporting Cristal
⚽
24'
Y. Yotun · Assist: L. Abram
Sporting Cristal
🟨
25'
Brandon Palacios
FC Cajamarca
🔄
35'
L. Iberico ↔ Gabriel
Sporting Cristal
🔄
46'
C. Meza ↔ J. Betancourt
FC Cajamarca
VAR
56'
Sebastián Enciso
FC Cajamarca
🟨
59'
Ricardo Lagos
FC Cajamarca
🟨
60'
Luis Abram
Sporting Cristal
🔄
61'
J. Gonzalez ↔ M. Tavara
Sporting Cristal
⚽
62'
H. Barcos · Assist: S. Enciso
FC Cajamarca
🟨
72'
Miguel Araujo
Sporting Cristal
🔄
75'
G. Cazonatti ↔ C. Cabellos
Sporting Cristal
🔄
76'
I. Avila ↔ M. Rodriguez
Sporting Cristal
🔄
76'
Y. Yotun ↔ I. Wisdom
Sporting Cristal
⚽
80'
J. Betancourt · Assist: H. Barcos
FC Cajamarca
🟨
81'
Jonathan Betancourt
FC Cajamarca
🟨
82'
Mauricio Arrasco
FC Cajamarca
🔄
89'
B. Palacios ↔ S. Pineau
FC Cajamarca
🟨
90+5'
Axel Moyano
FC Cajamarca
🟨
90+2'
Mateo Rodríguez
Sporting Cristal
🔄
90+2'
M. Arrasco ↔ A. Moyano
FC Cajamarca
🔄
90+6'
S. Enciso ↔ F. Ocas
FC Cajamarca
⚽
90'
S. Pineau · Assist: R. Lagos
FC Cajamarca

FC Cajamarca vs Sporting Cristal Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.9%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FC Cajamarca Win 74%
Draw 0%
Sporting Cristal Win 26%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Cajamarca1.35
Sporting Cristal1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca
WWDLW
20 GF / 26 GA
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal
WLDWL
34 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.73
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
9
BTTS Yes
15
9
Over 2.5
14
2.71
Shots on Goal
4.64

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca 15 matches
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 23 matches
FC Cajamarca Statistic Sporting Cristal
4 Wins 8
3 Draws 6
8 Losses 9
20 Goals For 34
26 Goals Against 32
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.73 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
9 BTTS Yes 15
11 Over 1.5 19
9 Over 2.5 14
5 Over 3.5 8
0 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 3
2.71 Shots On Goal 4.64
8 Total Shots 14.45
2.71 Corners 5.32
40.7% Ball Possession 57.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sporting Cristal. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

FC Cajamarca Analysis

With 12 points from 14 games and a place of 17, FC Cajamarca still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 18:25, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through H. Barcos (8 goals), B. Palacios (4 goals), A. Rodriguez (2 goals), with creative support from T. Andrade (3 assists), H. Barcos (1 assists), A. Rodriguez (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sporting Cristal Analysis

From their first 14 matches, Sporting Cristal have collected 16 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, while the 23:23 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Felipe Vizeu (5 goals), L. Iberico (4 goals), Gustavo Cazonatti (2 goals), with creative support from Y. Yotun (5 assists), I. Avila (3 assists), S. Gonzalez (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, FC Cajamarca won 1 times, Sporting Cristal won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:1 from FC Cajamarca's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: FC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1 / Sporting Cristal 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FC Cajamarca wins 1, draws 0, Sporting Cristal wins 0

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 17 8 3 46:19 27 59
W W L D L
2 28 14 8 6 45:33 12 50
D L W D W
3 28 14 6 8 39:25 14 48
L W L W W
4 28 13 8 7 47:31 16 47
D D W W L
5 28 14 3 11 41:40 1 45
L W L W W
6 28 13 5 10 48:40 8 44
W D L W L
7 28 12 7 9 43:36 7 43
W W L W W
8 28 12 7 9 36:45 -9 43
D D L L L
9 28 12 5 11 49:40 9 41
W W W W L
10 28 10 8 10 30:29 1 38
L D W L W
11 28 11 5 12 38:44 -6 38
W W W W W
12 28 9 8 11 43:53 -10 35
D W W D W
13 28 9 6 13 26:31 -5 33
D L W L W
14 28 7 10 11 36:39 -3 31
D L L D L
15 28 7 7 14 41:52 -11 28
D L W L W
16 28 6 8 14 29:42 -13 26
D W L L L
17 28 6 7 15 24:43 -19 25
L L L L L
18 28 4 8 16 32:51 -19 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2