PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi
Referee: R. B. Perez
FBC Melgar
Match Timeline
Universitario
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
1'
M. Zegarra · Assist: N. Quagliata
FBC Melgar
5'
J. Vidales · Assist: M. Zegarra
FBC Melgar
8'
J. Concha · Assist: J. Carabali
Universitario
🟨
15'
Javier Salas
FBC Melgar
VAR
19'
Jairo Concha
Universitario
🟨
58'
Williams Riveros
Universitario
🔄
61'
W. Riveros ↔ A. Santamaria
Universitario
🔄
61'
J. Carabali ↔ H. Calcaterra
Universitario
🔄
61'
E. Flores ↔ B. Reyna
Universitario
🔄
73'
J. Vidales ↔ B. Cuesta
FBC Melgar
🔄
73'
L. Guzman ↔ J. D'Arrigo
FBC Melgar
🔄
73'
H. Fertoli ↔ Miguel Silveira
Universitario
🟨
78'
Bryan Reyna
Universitario
🔄
79'
J. Castillo ↔ J. Rivera
Universitario
🔄
86'
N. Cabanillas ↔ A. Ramos
FBC Melgar
🔄
86'
M. Zegarra ↔ G. Bernaola
FBC Melgar
🔄
90+2'
N. Quagliata ↔ P. Erustes
FBC Melgar

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 64.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
64.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
63.2%
-
Probability Distribution
FBC Melgar Win 44.1%
Draw 0%
Universitario Win 55.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
FBC Melgar1.36
Universitario1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
WWDLW
22 GF / 18 GA
Universitario Universitario
WLDWL
18 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.69
Average Goals Scored
1.29
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
9
BTTS Yes
5
9
Over 2.5
5
3.8
Shots on Goal
4.27

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 13 matches
Universitario Universitario 14 matches
FBC Melgar Statistic Universitario
6 Wins 7
2 Draws 4
5 Losses 3
22 Goals For 18
18 Goals Against 12
1.69 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
9 BTTS Yes 5
12 Over 1.5 9
9 Over 2.5 5
6 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 7
1 Failed To Score 4
3.8 Shots On Goal 4.27
12.8 Total Shots 13.18
5.2 Corners 6.45
50.8% Ball Possession 52.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Universitario's more proactive style and FBC Melgar's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Universitario. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FBC Melgar expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Universitario in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Universitario having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Universitario carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 18 points while FBC Melgar sit 6 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

FBC Melgar Analysis

From their first 10 matches, FBC Melgar have collected 14 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 13:13 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Vidales (4 goals), B. Cuesta (3 goals), C. Bordacahar (2 goals), with creative support from N. Quagliata (3 assists), B. Cuesta (2 assists), M. Zegarra (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Universitario Analysis

Universitario come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 18 points after 9 matches. With 5 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 12:7, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Valera (5 goals), L. Alzugaray (2 goals), M. Perez Guedes (2 goals), with creative support from J. Concha (3 assists), J. Carabali (2 assists), A. Valera (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, FBC Melgar won 3 times, Universitario won 9 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:22 from FBC Melgar's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.57 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: FBC Melgar 3-4-3 / Universitario 5-3-2
H2H summary: FBC Melgar wins 3, draws 2, Universitario wins 9
Stats
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
Universitario Universitario
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
8
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
1
1 Corner Kicks 2
9 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 2
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Goal 3
4 Shots off Goal 8
1 Blocked Shots 1
6 Shots insidebox 8
3 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 2
371 Total passes 394
306 Passes accurate 337
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

FBC Melgar
Formation
Universitario
C. Caceda
C. Caceda
M. Lazo
M. Lazo
J. Escobar
J. Escobar
A. Deneumostier
A. Deneumostier
N. Cabanillas
N. Cabanillas
L. Guzman
L. Guzman
W. Tandazo
W. Tandazo
J. Salas
J. Salas
M. Zegarra
🎯
M. Zegarra
J. Vidales
J. Vidales
N. Quagliata
🎯
N. Quagliata
M. Vargas
M. Vargas
A. Polo
A. Polo
C. Fara
C. Fara
W. Riveros
W. Riveros
C. Inga
C. Inga
J. Carabali
🎯
J. Carabali
H. Fertoli
H. Fertoli
J. Castillo
J. Castillo
J. Concha
J. Concha
A. Valera
A. Valera
E. Flores
E. Flores
FBC Melgar 4-4-2
Starting XI
12
C. Caceda
G
33
M. Lazo
D
23
J. Escobar
D
5
A. Deneumostier
D
27
N. Cabanillas
↓ 86'
D
8
L. Guzman
↓ 73'
M
24
W. Tandazo
M
6
J. Salas
🟨 15'
M
45
M. Zegarra
⚽ 1' 🎯 5' ↓ 86'
M
11
J. Vidales
⚽ 5' ↓ 73'
F
10
N. Quagliata
🎯 1' ↓ 90+2'
F
Substitutes
21
J. Cabezudo
G
9
B. Cuesta
↑ 73'
F
4
A. Ramos
↑ 86'
D
80
J. D'Arrigo
↑ 73'
M
16
J. Caceres
M
22
P. Erustes
↑ 90+2'
F
14
Y. Gamero
M
20
G. Bernaola
↑ 86'
36
P. Nunez
M
Universitario 5-3-2
Starting XI
25
M. Vargas
G
24
A. Polo
D
2
C. Fara
D
3
W. Riveros
↓ 61' 🟨 58'
D
33
C. Inga
D
27
J. Carabali
🎯 8' ↓ 61'
D
8
H. Fertoli
↓ 73'
M
6
J. Castillo
↓ 79'
M
17
J. Concha
⚽ 8'
M
20
A. Valera
F
19
E. Flores
↓ 61'
F
Substitutes
1
D. Romero
G
29
A. Corzo
D
4
A. Santamaria
↑ 61'
D
10
H. Calcaterra
↑ 61'
M
11
J. Rivera
↑ 79'
F
23
J. Murrugarra
M
77
B. Reyna
↑ 61' 🟨 78'
F
90
S. Gassama
F
99
Miguel Silveira
↑ 73'
M
Last matches: FBC Melgar
18.06.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
17.06.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
31.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
3
1
W
22.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Juan Pablo II College
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Huancayo
4
1
W
10.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Comerciantes Unidos
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
28.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
1
L
15.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Boys
3
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cusco
1
3
L
20.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
ADT
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Atletico Grau
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
1
3
L
27.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
FC Cajamarca
1
3
L
15.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
4
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
31.01.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
2
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
Macara
2
1
W
20.01.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
3
L
Last matches: Universitario
31.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Universitario
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
Universitario
UCV Moquegua
0
0
D
20.05.26
CON
Universitario
Club Nacional
0
0
D
16.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
12.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Sport Boys
0
0
D
08.05.26
CON
Universitario
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Juan Pablo II College
4
1
W
30.04.26
CON
Universitario
Club Nacional
4
2
W
26.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Alianza Atletico
1
2
L
23.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Deportivo Garcilaso
4
1
W
15.04.26
CON
Universitario
Coquimbo Unido
0
2
L
08.04.26
CON
Universitario
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
05.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Alianza Lima
1
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Universitario
Comerciantes Unidos
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pri
Universitario
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
3
L
01.03.26
Pri
Universitario
FC Cajamarca
1
0
W
21.02.26
Pri
Universitario
Sporting Cristal
2
2
D
14.02.26
Pri
Universitario
Cienciano
2
1
W
H2H: FBC Melgar vs Universitario
19.04.26
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
1
W
20.01.26
H2H
Universitario
FBC Melgar
3
2
L
14.09.25
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
1
2
L
14.04.25
H2H
Universitario
FBC Melgar
4
1
L
01.08.24
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
1
0
W
18.02.24
H2H
Universitario
FBC Melgar
2
0
L
06.08.23
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
0
1
L
05.03.23
H2H
Universitario
FBC Melgar
1
0
L
16.10.22
H2H
Universitario
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
29.05.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
0
W
31.10.21
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
1
2
L
13.03.21
H2H
Universitario
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
19.07.20
H2H
Universitario
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
01.02.20
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
1
2
L
01.09.19
H2H
Universitario
FBC Melgar
2
1
L
Last matches: FBC Melgar
31.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
3
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Huancayo
4
1
W
03.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
04.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cusco
1
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Atletico Grau
0
0
D
27.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
2
L
15.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
4
0
W
31.01.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
2
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
Macara
2
1
W
17.01.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
2
0
W
H2H at home: FBC Melgar
19.04.26
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
1
W
14.09.25
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
1
2
L
01.08.24
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
1
0
W
06.08.23
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
0
1
L
29.05.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
0
W
31.10.21
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
1
2
L
01.02.20
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
1
2
L
Last matches: Universitario
23.05.26
Pri
Universitario
UCV Moquegua
0
0
D
20.05.26
CON
Universitario
Club Nacional
0
0
D
12.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Sport Boys
0
0
D
08.05.26
CON
Universitario
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Juan Pablo II College
4
1
W
08.04.26
CON
Universitario
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pri
Universitario
Comerciantes Unidos
0
0
D
08.03.26
Pri
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
3
L
21.02.26
Pri
Universitario
Sporting Cristal
2
2
D
08.02.26
Pri
Universitario
Cusco
1
1
D
H2H away: Universitario
19.04.26
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
1
L
14.09.25
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
1
2
W
01.08.24
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
1
0
L
06.08.23
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
0
1
W
29.05.22
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
0
L
31.10.21
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
1
2
W
01.02.20
H2H
FBC Melgar
Universitario
1
2
W

Standings

Primera Division: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
?
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
?
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
?
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
?
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
?
6 17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
?
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
?
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
?
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
?
10 17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
?
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
?
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
?
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
?
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
?
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
?
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
?
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
?
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
?
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)