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TURKEY › 1. LIG
11.10.2026 13:00
Yusuf Ziya Onis

Fatih Karagümrük vs Muğlaspor Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Fatih Karagümrük Win 61.7%
Draw 11.4%
Muğlaspor Win 26.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fatih Karagümrük1.22
Muğlaspor1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük
WWDLW
16 GF / 16 GA
Muğlaspor Muğlaspor
WLDWL
8 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1
1.45
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
9
BTTS Yes
3
6
Over 2.5
2
4.88
Shots on Goal
3.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 11 matches
Muğlaspor Muğlaspor 8 matches
Fatih Karagümrük Statistic Muğlaspor
4 Wins 2
3 Draws 5
4 Losses 1
16 Goals For 8
16 Goals Against 7
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.45 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
9 BTTS Yes 3
11 Over 1.5 5
6 Over 2.5 2
1 Over 3.5 2
1 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 3
4.88 Shots On Goal 3.75
13.38 Total Shots 11
4.25 Corners 3.88
47% Ball Possession 48.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Muğlaspor. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fatih Karagümrük expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Muğlaspor in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Muğlaspor having the stronger overall control.

Fatih Karagümrük Analysis

Fatih Karagümrük are currently 9 in the standings with 12 points from 8 matches. The record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 12:11 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ahmed Traore (2 goals), Aleksandar Pešić (2 goals), Davide Biraschi (1 goals), with creative support from Ahmed Traore (2 assists), Aleksandar Pešić (1 assists), Davide Biraschi (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Muğlaspor Analysis

From their first 8 matches, Muğlaspor have collected 11 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. The record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 8:7 goal balance, points toward mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through Yasin Uzunoğlu (4 goals), Luis Mago (1 goals), Ahmet Engin (1 goals), with creative support from Poyraz Efe Yıldırım (2 assists), Driton Camaj (2 assists), Daniel Avramovski (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.6%)
Predicted formations: Fatih Karagümrük 4-2-3-1 / Muğlaspor 4-4-2

Standings

Lig A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 1 1 15:3 12 19
W W W D L
2 8 6 1 1 16:7 9 19
W D W W W
3 8 5 1 2 12:7 5 16
D W W W W
4 8 5 1 2 15:13 2 16
L L W W W
5 8 4 2 2 11:9 2 14
W D L W W
6 8 3 4 1 17:10 7 13
D D W W D
7 8 3 3 2 9:5 4 12
L L W D D
8 8 4 0 4 14:13 1 12
W W L W L
9 8 3 3 2 12:11 1 12
W D L D D
10 8 2 5 1 8:7 1 11
D D D W W
11 8 2 4 2 12:5 7 10
L D W L D
12 8 2 4 2 10:13 -3 10
D D W L D
13 8 2 3 3 12:12 0 9
L D L L D
14 8 1 5 2 7:6 1 8
D W L D D
15 8 1 5 2 9:11 -2 8
D D W D L
16 8 1 3 4 6:9 -3 6
W L L L D
17 8 0 5 3 4:10 -6 5
L D L D L
18 8 1 2 5 7:19 -12 5
W L L L D
19 8 1 3 4 8:17 -9 4
L D D L D
20 8 0 1 7 3:20 -17 1
L D L L L
Promotion - Super Lig
Promotion - 1. Lig (Play Offs: Final)
Promotion - 1. Lig (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation