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PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
12.10.2026 19:15
Estadio Municipal de Famalicao

Famalicao vs Alverca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 62.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
62.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Famalicao Win 37.8%
Draw 20%
Alverca Win 42.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Famalicao1.23
Alverca0.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
Famalicao Famalicao
WWDLW
16 GF / 7 GA
Alverca Alverca
WLDWL
15 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.25
0.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
4
BTTS Yes
6
4
Over 2.5
5
3.43
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Famalicao Famalicao 12 matches
Alverca Alverca 12 matches
Famalicao Statistic Alverca
4 Wins 6
6 Draws 2
2 Losses 4
16 Goals For 15
7 Goals Against 13
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
0.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
4 BTTS Yes 6
6 Over 1.5 8
4 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 2
3.43 Shots On Goal 4
9.57 Total Shots 11.86
5.43 Corners 5
53.9% Ball Possession 43.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Famalicao's more proactive style and Alverca's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Alverca. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Famalicao expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Alverca in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alverca having the stronger overall control.

Famalicao Analysis

So far, Famalicao have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 7 points from 7 matches. Their overall return of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 9:7 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by G. Koutsias (5 goals), Sorriso (2 goals), F. van Breemen (1 goals), with creative support from Mathias De Amorim (3 assists), Sorriso (1 assists), Gil Dias (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Alverca Analysis

So far, Alverca have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 8 points from 7 matches. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 9:11 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through D. Camara (3 goals), Vivaldo Semedo (2 goals), Chiquinho (1 goals), with creative support from Chiquinho (2 assists), I. James (2 assists), Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Famalicao won 2 times, Alverca won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:2 from Famalicao's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.1%)
Predicted formations: Famalicao 4-2-3-1 / Alverca 3-4-3
H2H summary: Famalicao wins 2, draws 0, Alverca wins 1

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 7 0 0 18:3 15 21
W W W W W
2 7 5 1 1 22:7 15 16
L W W W W
3 7 4 3 0 17:8 9 15
D D W W W
4 7 4 3 0 11:4 7 15
D W W D W
5 7 3 2 2 10:7 3 11
D L D W L
6 6 3 2 1 7:5 2 11
D W L W W
7 7 3 2 2 9:9 0 11
W W W L D
8 7 2 4 1 14:14 0 10
L D W D W
9 6 2 2 2 5:5 0 8
D L L D W
10 7 2 2 3 9:11 -2 8
W W L D L
11 7 2 2 3 8:12 -4 8
D L L L D
12 7 2 2 3 8:14 -6 8
D W L L W
13 7 1 4 2 9:7 2 7
W D D D L
14 7 1 2 4 5:8 -3 5
D L D L W
15 7 1 1 5 7:15 -8 4
L L L L L
16 7 1 1 5 5:15 -10 4
L D L L W
17 7 1 1 5 3:16 -13 4
W L D L L
18 7 0 2 5 3:10 -7 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2