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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
17.05.2026 05:00
City Light Stadium
Referee: K. Fukushima
Fagiano Okayama
Match Timeline
Shimizu S-pulse
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
11'
K. Shirai · Assist: Werik Popo
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
60'
T. Takahashi ↔ K. Chiba
Shimizu S-pulse
🔄
60'
K. Kitazume ↔ H. Hidaka
Shimizu S-pulse
🟨
63'
Jelani Reshaun Sumiyoshi
Shimizu S-pulse
🔄
65'
T. Kimura ↔ Lucao
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
65'
Werik Popo ↔ Leo Gaucho
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
70'
K. Matsuzaki ↔ K. Kozuka
Shimizu S-pulse
🔄
74'
A. Esaka ↔ J. Nishikawa
Fagiano Okayama
⚽
79'
Leo Gaucho · Assist: Lucao
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
82'
Y. Shimamoto ↔ A. Ahmedov
Shimizu S-pulse
🔄
85'
K. Shirai ↔ N. Browne
Fagiano Okayama
🔄
85'
T. Yamane ↔ H. Motoyama
Fagiano Okayama

Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-pulse Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 82%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
82%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
26%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
75.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Fagiano Okayama Win 40%
Draw 18%
Shimizu S-pulse Win 42%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fagiano Okayama1.11
Shimizu S-pulse1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama
WWDLW
20 GF / 23 GA
Shimizu S-pulse Shimizu S-pulse
WLDWL
22 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1
11
BTTS Yes
11
7
Over 2.5
6
3.19
Shots on Goal
3.31

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 17 matches
Shimizu S-pulse Shimizu S-pulse 18 matches
Fagiano Okayama Statistic Shimizu S-pulse
5 Wins 6
6 Draws 8
6 Losses 4
20 Goals For 22
23 Goals Against 18
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1
11 BTTS Yes 11
13 Over 1.5 15
7 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 4
3.19 Shots On Goal 3.31
11.38 Total Shots 11.06
5.13 Corners 4.69
40.5% Ball Possession 48.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Shimizu S-pulse's more proactive style and Fagiano Okayama's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Shimizu S-pulse. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Fagiano Okayama come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Fagiano Okayama Analysis

Fagiano Okayama sit 7 with 23 points after 16 league matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 22:26 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Esaka (3 goals), Takaya Kimura (3 goals), Werik Popo (3 goals), with creative support from A. Esaka (3 assists), K. Shirai (3 assists), Towa Yamane (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Shimizu S-pulse Analysis

So far, Shimizu S-pulse have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 24 points from 16 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 22:21 reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking weight is carried by Oh Se-Hun (7 goals), Y. Shimamoto (3 goals), K. Kitagawa (2 goals), with creative support from Yutaka Yoshida (2 assists), Z. Uno (2 assists), Oh Se-Hun (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Fagiano Okayama won 2 times, Shimizu S-pulse won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:12 from Fagiano Okayama's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82%)
Predicted formations: Fagiano Okayama 3-4-2-1 / Shimizu S-pulse 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Fagiano Okayama wins 2, draws 4, Shimizu S-pulse wins 4

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)