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26.07.2026 20:15
Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi
Referee: P. Dovalo
Estudiantes L.P.
Match Timeline
Independiente
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
40'
Tomás Palacios
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
45+1'
Leonardo Godoy
Independiente
🔄
63'
M. Abaldo ↔ M. Meza
Independiente
🔄
72'
J. Burgos ↔ B. Aguirre
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
72'
A. Castro ↔ Perez Fabricio
Estudiantes L.P.
⚽
76'
G. Avalos · Assist: S. Montiel
Independiente
⚽
81'
Guido Carrillo
Estudiantes L.P.
⚽
82'
S. Montiel
Independiente
🔄
84'
L. Godoy ↔ S. Arias
Independiente
🔄
84'
M. Gutierrez ↔ D. Martinez
Independiente
🔄
85'
T. Palacios ↔ E. Cetre
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
85'
R. Funes Mori ↔ L. Alario
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
86'
L. Piovi ↔ J. Sosa
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
89'
G. Avalos ↔ K. Lomonaco
Independiente

Estudiantes L.P. vs Independiente Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 66.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
66.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Estudiantes L.P. Win 47.9%
Draw 18.9%
Independiente Win 33.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Estudiantes L.P.1.3
Independiente1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P.
WWDLW
32 GF / 13 GA
Independiente Independiente
WLDWL
31 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.63
0.52
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
8
BTTS Yes
13
7
Over 2.5
8
4.96
Shots on Goal
4.06

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P. 25 matches
Independiente Independiente 19 matches
Estudiantes L.P. Statistic Independiente
13 Wins 8
7 Draws 6
5 Losses 5
32 Goals For 31
13 Goals Against 25
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
0.52 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
8 BTTS Yes 13
13 Over 1.5 17
7 Over 2.5 8
2 Over 3.5 5
12 Clean Sheets 5
8 Failed To Score 1
4.96 Shots On Goal 4.06
13.83 Total Shots 12.59
4.57 Corners 5.53
52% Ball Possession 52.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Estudiantes L.P. expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Independiente in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Independiente. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Estudiantes L.P. Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 31 points from 16 games, Estudiantes L.P. bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 19:7, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Castro (3 goals), A. Gaich (3 goals), Fabricio Pérez (3 goals), with creative support from B. Aguirre (2 assists), Gastón Benedetti (2 assists), J. Burgos (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Independiente Analysis

Placed 5 with 24 points from 16 outings, Independiente continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 24:20 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through G. Avalos (10 goals), M. Abaldo (5 goals), M. Gutierrez (2 goals), with creative support from G. Avalos (5 assists), I. Malcorra (3 assists), M. Gutierrez (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Estudiantes L.P. won 4 times, Independiente won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:17 from Estudiantes L.P.'s perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.43 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.2%)
Predicted formations: Estudiantes L.P. 4-4-2 / Independiente 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Estudiantes L.P. wins 4, draws 6, Independiente wins 4

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
L D W L W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W D W W W
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
W L D W D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L D L L W
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
D D L W D
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W W D W W
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
W W L L D
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L L L L W
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
W D W W W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
L W W D W
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L W L D L
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L D D L L
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
D D D L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
L D W D D
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
L D D L D
Knockout Phase