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05.10.2026 22:00
Estadio Ciudad de La Plata
Referee: Yael Falcon Perez, Argentina
Estudiantes L.P.
Match Timeline
Gimnasia M.
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
24'
Lucas Piovi ↔ Bautista Kociubinski
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
41'
Tomás O'Connor
Gimnasia M.
🔄
45'
Tomás O'Connor ↔ Julián Ceballos
Gimnasia M.
🟨
52'
Luciano Paredes
Gimnasia M.
🟨
66'
Leandro Gonzalez Pirez
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
68'
Adolfo Gaich ↔ Guido Carrillo
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
68'
Miguel Monsalve ↔ Fabricio Pérez
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
74'
Matías Vargas ↔ Blas Armoa Nunez
Gimnasia M.
🔄
74'
Fermin Antonini ↔ Nahuel Barboza
Gimnasia M.
🟨
80'
Diego Mondino
Gimnasia M.
🔄
82'
Agustín Módica ↔ Valentino Simoni
Gimnasia M.
⚽
83'
Edwuin Cetre
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
89'
Joaquín Tobio Burgos ↔ Santiago Arzamendia
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
89'
Bautista Kociubinski ↔ José Sosa
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
89'
Esteban Fernández ↔ Santiago Rodríguez
Gimnasia M.
⚽
90'
Fabricio Pérez
Estudiantes L.P.
⚽
90+4'
Fabricio Pérez · Assist: Gastón Benedetti
Estudiantes L.P.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Gimnasia M. Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.8%
Odds 1.67
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.23
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.8%
1.67 ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
2.10 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.23 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.8%
1.39 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.60 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Estudiantes L.P. Win 68.8%
Draw 4%
Gimnasia M. Win 27.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Estudiantes L.P.1.2
Gimnasia M.0.9
Recent Form (Last 5)
Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P.
WWDLW
51 GF / 28 GA
Gimnasia M. Gimnasia M.
WLDWL
28 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
1.04
0.68
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
13
BTTS Yes
11
13
Over 2.5
10
5.14
Shots on Goal
3.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P. 41 matches
Gimnasia M. Gimnasia M. 27 matches
Estudiantes L.P. Statistic Gimnasia M.
19 Wins 10
10 Draws 7
12 Losses 10
51 Goals For 28
28 Goals Against 31
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.04
0.68 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
13 BTTS Yes 11
24 Over 1.5 15
13 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 6
17 Clean Sheets 9
15 Failed To Score 10
5.14 Shots On Goal 3.88
14.14 Total Shots 11.88
4.43 Corners 3.81
54.1% Ball Possession 45.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Estudiantes L.P.'s more proactive style and Gimnasia M.'s more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Estudiantes L.P. have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Estudiantes L.P. arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 31 points compared to Gimnasia M. in 11 on 19, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Gimnasia M..

Estudiantes L.P. Analysis

With 31 points from 16 games and a place of 1, Estudiantes L.P. still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 19:7 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Gaich (4 goals), G. Carrillo (2 goals), A. Castro (2 goals), with creative support from Tiago Palacios (3 assists), E. Cetré (2 assists), G. Carrillo (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Gimnasia M. Analysis

From their first 16 matches, Gimnasia M. have collected 19 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, while the 14:22 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Agustín Modica (8 goals), F. Lencioni (2 goals), Esteban Fernández (2 goals), with creative support from F. Lencioni (3 assists), Ignacio Sabatini (2 assists), T. O'Connor (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Estudiantes L.P. won 1 times, Gimnasia M. won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Estudiantes L.P.'s perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: Estudiantes L.P. 4-2-3-1 / Gimnasia M. 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Estudiantes L.P. wins 1, draws 0, Gimnasia M. wins 0

Standings

Clausura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 8 1 2 17:8 9 25
W W W L W
2 11 5 6 0 17:11 6 21
D W D W D
3 11 6 3 2 16:11 5 21
W D W L W
4 11 5 5 1 17:11 6 20
W W W D W
5 11 5 2 4 13:9 4 17
D W W W L
6 11 4 5 2 11:8 3 17
D W D D D
7 11 5 2 4 14:12 2 17
L D L D W
8 11 5 2 4 11:12 -1 17
L W D W L
9 11 4 1 6 13:11 2 13
W L W L D
10 11 4 1 6 17:19 -2 13
L L L W W
11 11 2 5 4 9:11 -2 11
D D L D D
12 11 3 2 6 4:11 -7 11
L L D W L
13 11 2 4 5 11:17 -6 10
D L L D L
14 11 2 3 6 8:14 -6 9
D D L L D
15 11 2 2 7 11:18 -7 8
L L W L D
Knockout Phase