PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA

10.09.2026 19:15

Estrela

2 - 1

SC Braga

Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Referee: Vasilica Iancu, Portugal

Estrela

Match Timeline

SC Braga

0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'

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Estrela vs SC Braga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2

Home Win

Probability 45.5%

Odds 5.88

BTTS

Yes

Probability 67.1%

Odds 1.95

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.5

Probability 66.7%

Odds 1.89

All Markets

Market	Option	Probability	Odds	Stats & Analysis
1X2	Home Win	45.5%	5.88	▥
BTTS	Yes	67.1%	1.95	▥
Over / Under 2.5	Over 2.5	66.7%	1.89	▥
Corners O/U	Under 11.5 Corners	71.3%	1.12	▥
HT / FT	Home / Home	-	9.00	▥
Correct Score	2-1	-	17.00	▥

Probability Distribution

Estrela Win 45.5%

Draw 16.7%

SC Braga Win 37.8%

Expected Goals (xG)

Estrela1.32

SC Braga1.58

Recent Form (Last 5)

Estrela

WWDLW

21 GF / 14 GA

SC Braga

WLDWL

25 GF / 6 GA

Key Stats

1.91

Average Goals Scored

1.79

1.27

Average Goals Conceded

0.43

BTTS Yes

Over 2.5

4.5

Shots on Goal

3.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Estrela 11 matches

SC Braga 14 matches

Estrela	Statistic	SC Braga
5	Wins	10
5	Draws	4
1	Losses	0
21	Goals For	25
14	Goals Against	6
1.91	Avg Goals Scored	1.79
1.27	Avg Goals Conceded	0.43
8	BTTS Yes	4
10	Over 1.5	7
6	Over 2.5	6
5	Over 3.5	5
3	Clean Sheets	10
0	Failed To Score	2
4.5	Shots On Goal	3.44
11.75	Total Shots	6.78
3.25	Corners	3.22
47%	Ball Possession	44.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Estrela won 0 times, SC Braga won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:14 from Estrela's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.14 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win

BTTS: Yes

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

Highest model probability: 12 (83.3%)

Predicted formations: Estrela 4-2-3-1 / SC Braga 3-4-3

H2H summary: Estrela wins 0, draws 4, SC Braga wins 3

Standings

Primeira Liga

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18:3	15	21	W W W W W
2	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	20:9	11	18	W D D W W
3	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22:7	15	16	L W W W W
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11:4	7	15	D W W D W
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10:7	3	11	D L D W L
6	GIL Vicente	7	3	2	2	6:5	1	11	W D L L D
7	SC Braga Away	7	3	2	2	8:8	0	11	L D W L W
8	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9:9	0	11	W W W L D
9	Estrela Home	7	2	4	1	14:14	0	10	L D W D W
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9:11	-2	8	W W L D L
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8:12	-4	8	D L L L D
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	8:15	-7	8	L D W L L
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9:7	2	7	W D D D L
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5:8	-3	5	D L D L W
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7:15	-8	4	L L L L L
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5:15	-10	4	L D L L W
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3:16	-13	4	W L D L L
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3:10	-7	2	L L D L L