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TURKEY › SüPER LIG
20.09.2026 14:00
Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu
Referee: A. B. Taskinsoy
Erzurumspor FK
Match Timeline
Samsunspor
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
Miguel Cardoso
Erzurumspor FK
🟨
33'
Elisha Owusu
Erzurumspor FK
⚽
45'
M. Cardoso
Erzurumspor FK
🔄
46'
S. Jarju ↔ T. Coulibaly
Samsunspor
🔄
57'
M. Rodriguez ↔ S. Akgun
Erzurumspor FK
🟨
64'
Samed Onur
Samsunspor
🔄
65'
E. Watt ↔ A. Sekongo
Samsunspor
🔄
66'
M. Cardoso ↔ I. Diabate
Erzurumspor FK
🔄
66'
E. Tozlu ↔ G. Kerk
Erzurumspor FK
🟨
77'
Brandon Baiye
Erzurumspor FK
🔄
79'
S. Onur ↔ Y. Kayan
Samsunspor
🔄
81'
O. Ovacikli ↔ F. Ebosele
Erzurumspor FK
🟨
86'
Emre Kılınç
Samsunspor

Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 65.1%
Odds 1.50
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 2.26
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
65.1%
1.50 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
2.26 ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
67.8%
1.14 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Erzurumspor FK Win 34.9%
Draw 23.4%
Samsunspor Win 41.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Erzurumspor FK1.15
Samsunspor1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK
WWDLW
5 GF / 12 GA
Samsunspor Samsunspor
WLDWL
11 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
0.71
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.71
Average Goals Conceded
1.8
2
BTTS Yes
5
4
Over 2.5
6
2.8
Shots on Goal
2.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 7 matches
Samsunspor Samsunspor 10 matches
Erzurumspor FK Statistic Samsunspor
2 Wins 3
2 Draws 2
3 Losses 5
5 Goals For 11
12 Goals Against 18
0.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.71 Avg Goals Conceded 1.8
2 BTTS Yes 5
5 Over 1.5 8
4 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 4
2.8 Shots On Goal 2.8
9.2 Total Shots 14.2
3.2 Corners 3.6
43.4% Ball Possession 56.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Samsunspor. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Erzurumspor FK expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Samsunspor in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Samsunspor having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Erzurumspor FK Analysis

Erzurumspor FK approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 4 points from 5 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 2:11 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on E. Tozlu (2 goals), with creative support from G. Giorbelidze (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Samsunspor Analysis

With 4 points from 5 games and a place of 14, Samsunspor still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats with a 6:11 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Emre Kılınç (1 goals), Josafat Mendes (1 goals), Fatih Kaya (1 goals), with creative support from Saikuba Jarju (2 assists), Emre Kılınç (1 assists), Josafat Mendes (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Erzurumspor FK won 0 times, Samsunspor won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:8 from Erzurumspor FK's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.17 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.6%)
Predicted formations: Erzurumspor FK 5-4-1 / Samsunspor 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Erzurumspor FK 0, Samsunspor 5
H2H summary: Erzurumspor FK wins 0, draws 3, Samsunspor wins 3

Standings

Süper Lig
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 1 1 15:7 8 13
W W D W L
2 6 4 1 1 13:10 3 13
L W W W W
3 6 4 0 2 14:7 7 12
L W W W L
4 6 4 0 2 7:4 3 12
W L W W W
5 6 3 2 1 8:6 2 11
W D W L W
6 6 3 1 2 16:6 10 10
W D L W W
7 6 3 1 2 13:5 8 10
W L W L W
8 6 2 4 0 7:5 2 10
D W D D W
9 6 3 1 2 7:6 1 10
D W L W L
10 6 2 2 2 7:7 0 8
L D W L W
11 6 2 1 3 13:12 1 7
L W W L L
12 6 2 1 3 10:11 -1 7
W L L D L
13 6 2 1 3 5:13 -8 7
L L L D W
14 6 2 1 3 3:11 -8 7
W L W D L
15 6 1 1 4 4:8 -4 4
D W L L L
16 6 1 1 4 6:12 -6 4
L L L L W
17 6 0 3 3 11:15 -4 3
D D L L L
18 6 1 0 5 2:16 -14 3
L L L W L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. Lig