Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
72%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
90.5%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
81.9%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Under 10.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 0-2 |
-
|
- |
Erzgebirge Aue
MSV Duisburg
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Erzgebirge Aue
36 matches
MSV Duisburg
36 matches
| Erzgebirge Aue | Statistic | MSV Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Wins | 19 |
| 12 | Draws | 9 |
| 18 | Losses | 8 |
| 47 | Goals For | 65 |
| 68 | Goals Against | 48 |
| 1.31 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.81 |
| 1.89 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.33 |
| 24 | BTTS Yes | 24 |
| 29 | Over 1.5 | 28 |
| 24 | Over 2.5 | 24 |
| 16 | Over 3.5 | 17 |
| 7 | Clean Sheets | 10 |
| 9 | Failed To Score | 7 |
| 3.13 | Shots On Goal | 3.5 |
| 9.37 | Total Shots | 8.9 |
| 4.47 | Corners | 3.93 |
| 39.9% | Ball Possession | 36.9% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by MSV Duisburg's more proactive style and Erzgebirge Aue's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. MSV Duisburg carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 66 points while Erzgebirge Aue sit 19 on 30, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. MSV Duisburg look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Erzgebirge Aue expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and MSV Duisburg in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward MSV Duisburg having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring MSV Duisburg.
With 30 points from 36 games and a place of 19, Erzgebirge Aue still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 12 draws, and 18 defeats, and the 47:68 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Guttau (8 goals), M. Bar (8 goals), M. Stefaniak (4 goals), with creative support from Eric Uhlmann (4 assists), Mika Clausen (4 assists), Pascal Fallmann (4 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
Operating from 3 place with 66 points from 36 games, MSV Duisburg bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 19 wins, 9 draws, and 8 defeats, together with goals at 65:48, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through Conor Noß (10 goals), P. Sussek (7 goals), Joshua Bitter (6 goals), with creative support from P. Sussek (7 assists), J. Symalla (7 assists), Joshua Bitter (5 assists), while their defending has remained quite vulnerable. Away from home, their record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.
Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Erzgebirge Aue won 1 times, MSV Duisburg won 7 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:21 from Erzgebirge Aue's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.14 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 66:34 | 32 | 80 |
W
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 38 | 21 | 9 | 8 | 72:51 | 21 | 72 |
W
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 3 | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 78:66 | 12 | 70 |
W
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 4 |
MSV Duisburg
Away
|
38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 66:49 | 17 | 68 |
D
D
W
L
W
|
| 5 | 38 | 18 | 13 | 7 | 74:49 | 25 | 67 |
W
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 6 | 38 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 82:48 | 34 | 64 |
W
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 7 | 38 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 76:57 | 19 | 64 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 8 | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 54:53 | 1 | 56 |
L
L
D
W
D
|
|
| 9 | 38 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 54:52 | 2 | 53 |
W
L
L
D
D
|
|
| 10 | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 59:72 | -13 | 52 |
L
W
L
D
D
|
|
| 11 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 51:53 | -2 | 51 |
D
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 12 | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 65:56 | 9 | 49 |
W
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 13 | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 54:58 | -4 | 49 |
L
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 14 | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 57:69 | -12 | 46 |
L
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 15 | 38 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 51:57 | -6 | 44 |
L
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 16 | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 65:71 | -6 | 43 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 38 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 57:89 | -32 | 35 |
L
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 18 |
Erzgebirge Aue
Home
|
38 | 7 | 13 | 18 | 51:70 | -19 | 34 |
W
D
W
D
D
|
| 19 | 38 | 9 | 6 | 23 | 49:78 | -29 | 33 |
L
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 20 | 38 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 38:87 | -49 | 21 |
L
L
D
D
D
|