ITALY › SERIE B
10.10.2026 13:00
Stadio Carlo Castellani

Empoli vs Palermo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Empoli Win 44.2%
Draw 4.4%
Palermo Win 51.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Empoli0.93
Palermo1.74
Recent Form (Last 5)
Empoli Empoli
WWDLW
8 GF / 9 GA
Palermo Palermo
WLDWL
29 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
0.89
Average Goals Scored
2.23
1
Average Goals Conceded
1
5
BTTS Yes
7
2
Over 2.5
6
3
Shots on Goal
5.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Empoli Empoli 9 matches
Palermo Palermo 13 matches
Empoli Statistic Palermo
3 Wins 8
3 Draws 3
3 Losses 2
8 Goals For 29
9 Goals Against 13
0.89 Avg Goals Scored 2.23
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1
5 BTTS Yes 7
5 Over 1.5 11
2 Over 2.5 6
1 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 2
3 Shots On Goal 5.86
9.83 Total Shots 14.71
4 Corners 3.86
44% Ball Possession 49.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Palermo's more proactive style and Empoli's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Empoli expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Palermo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Palermo having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Palermo look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Palermo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 13 points while Empoli sit 13 on 6, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Palermo.

Empoli Analysis

Empoli approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 6 points from 5 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 4:6, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through E. Saporiti (1 goals), Gerard Yepes (1 goals), S. Shpendi (1 goals), with creative support from C. Cauz (1 assists), L. Magnino (1 assists), M. Egan (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Palermo Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 13 points from 5 games, Palermo bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, with a 10:5 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on D. Johnsen (3 goals), D. Vavassori (2 goals), J. Pohjanpalo (1 goals), with creative support from D. Johnsen (4 assists), J. Pohjanpalo (2 assists), T. Augello (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Empoli won 4 times, Palermo won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:11 from Empoli's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.7 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Empoli 3-5-2 / Palermo 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Empoli wins 4, draws 3, Palermo wins 3

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 5 4 1 0 10:5 5 13
W D W W W
2 5 3 2 0 9:3 6 11
W D W D W
3 5 3 2 0 10:5 5 11
D W D W W
4 5 3 1 1 8:4 4 10
W D L W W
5 5 3 1 1 7:4 3 10
W L W D W
6 5 2 1 2 5:6 -1 7
L W L D W
7 5 2 1 2 6:5 1 7
W W L D L
8 5 2 1 2 10:7 3 7
W L W D L
9 5 2 1 2 7:6 1 7
L D W W L
10 5 1 4 0 7:6 1 7
D D D W D
11 5 2 1 2 8:8 0 7
D L W W L
12 5 2 0 3 6:13 -7 6
L W L L W
13 5 2 0 3 4:6 -2 6
L L W L W
14 5 1 2 2 7:6 1 5
D W D L L
15 5 1 2 2 5:7 -2 5
D D W L L
16 5 1 2 2 7:10 -3 5
L D D L W
17 5 1 1 3 5:9 -4 4
W L L L D
18 5 1 0 4 5:9 -4 3
L W L L L
19 5 1 2 2 4:7 -3 1
D D L W L
20 5 0 1 4 2:6 -4 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation